So chances are Ted will win in Wisconsin tonight and get most of the 42 delegates up for grabs. Where does that put us? Well, he’ll still be about 200 behind with NY, PA, and several other eastern states coming up in a couple of weeks. The numbers in these contests look much better for The Donald. So unless this win tonight galvanizes the electorate to support Ted he has basically no chance of reaching 1237. Let’s look at the options.
For Trump he either reaches 1237 or he doesn’t. If he does then he’s the nominee. And honestly I don’t think anyone knows how that would turn out but I think he has a better than even chance of beating Clinton. And also it would be guaranteed to be highly entertaining. If Trump doesn’t reach 1237 then things become less clear. Theoretically the rules could be changed ahead of the convention to allow Establishment insiders to negotiate anyone they like to be the nominee. The question is would they? Between Trump and Cruz they’ll have well over 70% of the total delegates. If they decide to give the prize to a third party it will anger so many voters that it would effectively give the general election to the Dems. My guess is that they’re just stupid enough to do exactly that.
One way that this could be avoided would be for Trump and Cruz to come to an accommodation. If they formed a ticket they could try to steer all the delegates between them on the first ballot to one of them. Of course they hate each other’s guts. But they’re both kind of calculating players so I could believe it could be done. But how to pick the top of the ticket?
Flip a coin? Arm wrestle? Spelling Bee? No! Pistols at ten paces!
Now, Cruz is a Princess Bride fan so sabers would be more fitting but if it was good enough for Hamilton/Burr, it’s good enough for Cruz/Trump. I wonder if Trump has a floating casino that leaves US territorial waters. That would make it legal. Of course if one or both are killed, Jeb! is still available. Where’s that Dread Pirate Roberts when you need him? I’m moving to the Fire Swamp until it’s over.