Should I Vote for Trump?

Greetings all you folks out in the vast right-wing conspiracy and even you denizens of the various substrata of the American Dream.

Well the unthinkable has happened and The Donald is the presumptive nominee. The screaming can be heard all the way to low earth-orbit and the usual suspects have declared it the sign of the coming apocalypse and the beginning of the end of the Republican party, conservatism, the American Republic and all multicellular life.

The reason for this consternation is Trump’s character. Hillary has declared him a loose cannon. “Everyone” knows that he’s dangerous and unreliable. Actual pundits on both ends of the political spectrum have declared that any result would be better than allowing Trump to win. Friends of mine have tried to convince me that it’s my duty to vote against him or at least abstain from voting altogether. As proof of this they ask ominously “Do you know what he might do if he wins?” They say this as though voting for him without knowing what he might do is tantamount to handing a loaded pistol to a hopped up chimpanzee. “Do you know what he might do if he wins?”

Of course the short answer is, “Damned if I know.”

And that’s the problem. Uncertainty about who he is and what he’ll do has fueled endless hand-wringing. And reaction to the outlandish and scurrilous statements that he has used against democrats and republicans alike during the campaign so far has led to angry statements from many thoughtful people about voting third party or not voting at all, as a protest.

Now, being a leading internet pundit, I have the moral responsibility to reveal the deep truth of the situation and thereby clarify the path forward for everyone else. What will Trump do if he wins?

Ready? OK.

Damned if I know.

So how do I know whether to vote for him or not? Well it occurs to me that the last two Presidents I voted for who were elected (namely George Bushes I and II) told me they would govern as conservatives. GHWB said he’d be the extension of Reagan’s terms in office. And GWB said he was a conservative. Well that wasn’t really the case. In fact I had no idea that either of them would disappoint the conservative voters who got them elected. So not knowing what a candidate is going to do once he’s in office is not really that unusual a situation to be in.

So here we are in 2016 and the RNC sends out JEB! and says he’s a conservative and here we go again. Trump threw a monkey-wrench into the works and eliminated JEB!. For that alone he should get a medal or his face on the twenty dollar bill. He also eliminated candidates who actually might be conservatives. Well that’s too bad. But that’s where we are now. The only question left is should I vote for him? Well, let’s try logic.

Choices for Conservative Voters:
1) Vote For Hillary.
2) Don’t Vote.
3) Vote for a Third Party.
4) Vote for Trump.

Results of each:
1) Causes Hillary victory. Liberal Supreme Court. Loss of 1st and 2nd Amendment Rights. Permanent crony capitalist kleptocracy with us as serfs.

2) Causes Hillary victory. Same results as first choice.

3) Causes Hillary victory. Same results as first choice.

4) Damned if I know.

Analysis:
Choices 1, 2 & 3 produce the same result, the end of the American Republic (such as it is).
Choice 4 is what is technically known as a “crap shoot.” Let’s be pessimistic and say there’s a 75% chance that the outcome will be as bad or worse than Hillary. So pessimistically, there’s a one in four (25%) chance that the outcome will be better.

In that case common sense tells you to go with this choice. Now someone can say that instead of a 25% chance it’s really 10% or 5%. Fine. Let’s say it’s 1%. That still means you have one chance in a hundred of getting a good result. You might say that the difference between 1% and 0% is negligible. You would be wrong. The difference between 1% and 0% is infinite. Because anything is infinitely more than nothing. Basically it’s the difference between hope and despair. Let’s say you’re in a burning high rise building and the only way to escape is to run across the roof as fast as you can and jump for another building that’s so far away that you don’t know if you can reach it.

Your choices are:
1) Stay in the building and get cooked.
2) Jump

Outcomes:
1) 100% (agonizing) death
2) 99% fall to your (quick) death, 1% survive

I don’t know about you, I think I’d take a chance and jump. I’ll vote Trump.

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