Codevilla reviews what he thinks the choices are for President Trump. Either deliver the Wall and Immigration Law enforcement or lose in 2020. He also discusses the bi-party ruling class and what part they play in our awful politics. No surprises here. Just the outline of what to look for going into the coming election cycle.
Vanity Fair says they are quoting a former White House insider that says that President Trump won’t back down from the Wall controversy. They said that he believes he either builds the wall or fails to be re-elected. I won’t link to Vanity fair because they suck and don’t deserve any clicks. But it’s an interesting question. Will Donald Trump tough it out? And will the Republicans in Congress back him up or fold like the cheap suits they wear? I think that second question is easy. Of course they’ll fold. They are the hollowest of hollow men. They can’t even spell integrity no less have any.
Can Trump take on the Democrats, the Republicans, the Courts, the Media, the Bureaucrats in the Justice Department and all the other Swamp Dwellers in DC? Without a doubt I’m behind him 100%. I would trade ten years of salary to see him shut down illegal immigration. But I won’t lie, I think he has his work cut out for him. He is surrounded by a endless ocean of vampires who live off the blood they suck out of this country. They’ll fight to the death to hold onto their latch on our jugular. But just imagine if he wins. Think of the adrenaline rush to know that the beast can be tamed, that the enemy was made to blink. It makes me giddy just thinking about it. If he could accomplish that then who knows what else he might do. Maybe he could start pressuring the companies currently employing illegal aliens to stop. That would be truly worthwhile.
So we’ll have to wait and see how this plays out. I’m guessing there are several more weeks that will play out before anyone can detect a pain point for one side or the other. Will the Democrats scream first or will it be the spineless Republicans. And will Trump have the backbone to ignore both sides? Will the Dems begin impeachment to back up their threat and if so will the Senate Republicans stand up to them or fold?
Any way it goes it will be the biggest story of the year I think and we’ll learn a lot about all the cast of characters that inhabit this drama. My sense is that Vanity Fair’s source is right. Trump will go the limit to build the wall. My guess is that the screaming from the Democrat constituencies when the shutdown pain starts biting will get chuck and Nancy to say uncle. They’ll put some kind of brave face on it but they’ll cave. My only hope is that he doesn’t throw them some kind of DACA deal. That would actually be a net loss. At worst he should give them some kind of soft soap about humane conditions for asylum seekers and other distressed individuals. But hopefully no more than that.
So how much time should this take? I say the maximum is two months. Let’s call it St. Patrick’s Day. What do you folks think?
The President said the meeting was a total waste of time. Let’s hope this means he’ll starve the buggers out.
I watched the speech just now. I liked my version of it better but I’ll give him a solid B. He painted it as a humanitarian problem and also a crime problem. That’s good. He gave a litany of illegal alien crime stories. There were murders, rapes, beheadings, dismemberments, you name it. He laid the blame at the Democrats’ feet for not getting the wall funded. And he compared the five-billion-dollar price tag to the five hundred-billion-dollar trade in illegal drugs that crosses the border every year. He listed the horrendous abuse that happens to migrants being trafficked across the border. He said that 33 percent of women migrants are raped and that many of the migrants are held as virtual slaves in the sex trade. I understand that Pelosi and Schumer will have a chance to rebut the speech but life is short so I skipped listening to them. I’m sure I’ll do better even if I just end up using the time to floss my teeth.
I wonder if there’s a chance that the Democrats will cave soon. If not, I hope the President has a Plan B. I like the idea of getting the military to build the wall. They did a bit of that in Iraq I remember and I’m sure they could get it erected pretty quickly once they got rolling. I’m trying to understand how long the government shutdown can go on before something critical goes wrong. Is the IRS considered important or not? Does this mean I don’t have to pay my taxes? Or does it just mean my refund will be late. Well, from my point of view I don’t care if the government stays shut for a couple of years. As long as the military and law enforcement is funded the rest can just wait.
Well, that’s about all I can think of. It was a short speech and I suppose time will tell if the Democrats will cave. Skeletor Pelosi and Crying Chuck, the ball is in your court.
Announcer (who sounds amazingly like the late Don Pardo): We interrupt your usual sad programming to bring you an important message from the President of the United States.
President Trump: Good evening my fellow Americans and also, you tens of millions of criminal aliens living among us. I’m here tonight to discuss something very important so put down your bong or your cannabis vape or whatever other brain killing device you prefer and listen and try to understand the words coming out of my mouth, you losers.
The Congress is refusing to fund the wall so I have no choice but to take care of the job myself. I have personally put in a bid on ebay for the Great Wall of China, which by the way isn’t all that great and my bid of forty million dollars was accepted so within the month hundreds of thousands of communist Chinese workers will shift from making Apple smart phones to building the wall on our southern border. You may ask how I can afford to get the wall for forty million when I told Congress I needed five billion dollars. Well it’s simple. All the tariffs I’ve enacted and all the competitive manufacturing happening in America has put a dent in the Chinese Dragon and the Little Red Book really is in the red now so they’ll work for peanuts or even fortune cookies so to speak. Interestingly enough the wall is much longer than our southern border so I’ll use the rest of the bricks to put walls around the sanctuary cities and starve out the inhabitants and deport the illegals as they exit.
And finally, I had ICE look into Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and what do you know? Nobody can find a birth certificate on little miss big mouth. So, I deported her to Mexico today and as soon as someone can prove she’s a citizen we’ll let her back in. But that’ll probably get me at least a few days of quiet. In the coming months I have several other projects that I will either self-fund or crowd fund depending on the circumstance. But either way I think keeping the government shut down is the way to go. I’ll be laying off most of the useless departments like Education, Energy, Housing and Urban Development. I figure in about eleven months the Democrats will be willing to talk turkey just about in time for Thanksgiving. Well anyway, I’m done talking so you can resume watching your brain rot and sucking down your daily dose of poison. Try to do something useful today you hopeless degenerates.
Well, here we are. Christmas is a fond memory and the do-nothing Republican led House is about to become the cannot-do-anything Democrat led House. President Trump is bringing home the troops from the Middle East and will let the partial government shutdown send the bureaucrats home without their big fat paychecks.
I’ll have to read up on the actual constraints of shutting down the government. I’m guessing the military will have sufficient funds to fuel jets and feed troops. I don’t know what happens to Social Security checks and Medicare bills. Both sides are making noises about who will pay the price for turning out the lights in D.C. and filling in the Grand Canyon during the hiatus. Several people on our side of the divide have opined that since most of the civil service are Democrat supporters this will hurt them more than us and will bring them to the bargaining table first. Sounds plausible.
I’m guessing that Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi will be the brokers on their side. And I’m wondering if the “Dreamers” will be the carrot that will be waived to get the wall built. I’m hoping that they won’t be given any amnesty. It’s just too slippery a slope. Before you know it everyone in the Third World will be identified as a Dreamer.
More importantly, what will be the path forward to evicting the tens of millions of squatters who currently inhabit the country? At some point it has to be started if the wall is to have any meaning. Enforcing the current immigration laws has to be part of any strategy to secure the border and return authority over the country to the legal residents. And since it is already within existing legislation to do it, no battles in Congress are necessary. All that is needed is the will and control over the bureaucracy and law enforcement agents whose job it is to carry out these existing policies.
I say this as if it were easy. It’s not. Currently the Justice Department isn’t even under the control of the President. He must first get his Attorney General appointed and the mutinous crew currently running the various agencies fired and out of the buildings. Then he has to find capable honest people to take their places and doing the job. I don’t envy him the task. It’s enormous.
It should be a very interesting January. A few weeks without their paychecks should focus the minds of a lot of bureaucrats and hopefully make them more receptive to cutting a deal over immigration. This will also be a real test of President Trump. Battling Congress and dealing with his executive branch mutiny, not to mention the Mueller comedy is a titanic assignment. I think he is up to the challenge and I wish him all the luck and success he can get. Maybe it’s just the lingering Christmas food glow but somehow, I’m feeling optimistic. We’ll probably know by Valentine’s Day who wins the game of chicken.
Roger Kimball has a very nice article on the Wall Funding / Government Shutdown intersection. Remembering the G H W Bush, Read My Lips fail is very instructive. This is could be a decisive moment in the Trump presidency.
Shutting down the government over Christmas is an iconic move. Let’s see who blinks.
As the Conservative Treehouse linked to the results of the Harvard-Harris monthly poll we find three very encouraging results. Look at the answer percentages on these three questions:
Do you think current border security is adequate or inadequate? 61% Inadequate / 39% Adequate
Do you support or oppose building a combination of physical and electronic barriers across the U.S.-Mexico border? 60% Support / 40% Oppose
Do you think that the Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers, known as ICE, should be disbanded or not? 31% Disbanded / 69% Not Disbanded
And this poll skews to the left with 37% Democrat, 32% Republican and 29% Independent. Look at that number, 60% support building a wall. That represents basically all the Republicans and all the Independents. But if you go to the Harris Poll site and look up Harvard Harris you’ll see this headline:
“Latest Harvard-Harris Poll Finds More than 6 in 10 Registered Voters Oppose Border Wall Between U.S. and Mexico.”
But that’s the opposite result. How can that be? Well the poll they tout was taken back in April and preceded this one. But wait a minute, you might say, how could 20% of the country change its mind in a month or two? And you would be right. That doesn’t happen. The older poll reflects what we’ve been fed from pollsters for the last decade. Americans want more immigration and they love those whacky, fun-loving drug runners from M13. We can’t get enough of their idiosyncratic drive by machine gunning and intimidation of our high school children. What’s not to love?
So how did the new headline occur? I don’t think you’ll find a documented answer that makes sense. I’ll give you my theory.
The narrative collapsed.
The people who put out these polls have a pretty wide latitude when it comes to selecting the participants, phrasing the questions and massaging the data they receive. And I think they use this elasticity to produce results like the 99.9% certainty that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. So, I’m guessing that the difference between the April poll and the June poll was relatively large, not twenty percent but maybe five percent. But my guess is that the real percentages in those two polls were 65% and 70%. But you’d say, wait a minute, that’s impossible. How could a 65% majority for the wall be turned into a 40% minority? That’s a 25% inaccuracy. And why then would they not just adjust the 70% to 45%. My theory is they’ve been maintaining the same narrative that they fabricated to prop up the Obama presidency and they juiced it as hard as they could during the Clinton campaign and they held out hope that the Resistance would bring down Trump’s popularity and allow his presidency to collapse. But the numbers keep moving farther and farther in the other direction and now they’re literally afraid of being caught cooking the books and losing their gig. After all, other pollsters are already showing different results on these same poll questions and it must be getting a little thick for our friends at Harris and Gallup. They don’t want to be the ones flapping in the breeze when the next Brexit or Trumpocalypse occurs. It might mean having to get real jobs. So the jig is up and they’ll have to start only slightly slightly tipping the scales, let’s say 5 to 10%.
And that got me thinking, what would it look like if the narrative collapsed completely? And what would it take to cause that implosion? My guess is that what would cause the implosion would be the success of the Trump Revolution. Specifically, if the Republicans hold onto the House and expand their lead in the Senate and use this majority to provide President Trump with the funds to build the wall and enforce the immigration laws and the country supports this effort by re-electing him convincingly, then all of this would be enough to collapse the Narrative completely.
So this is the long answer for why those poll answers seem so different from expectations. But there’s a short answer too. A one-word answer. Trump.
Ever since the primary debates he’s been telling us the Emperor’s New Clothes are fake news. Jeb! told us that illegal immigration was love. Trump told us it was crime. The Media and the pollsters said Trump was part of a small, shrinking, bigoted minority. The election showed that wasn’t so. He keeps hammering away at the lies and evasions. And he’s definitely winning. And they know it. And now they know that we know it too.