My Thoughts on the Various Possible Outcomes of the Upcoming Election

First item, full disclosure, I believe President Trump will win the election decisively enough that even the massive fraud the Democrats plan won’t be enough to change the result.  So that’s my prediction.  But I am realistic enough to know that I don’t have all the answers.

Second item, full disclosure, there is almost no result that could occur that will plunge me into despair.  When Barack Obama was elected, I was devastated to think that the American people would allow cultural Marxism to take over the government voluntarily.  Since then I have become a lot less naive about how this country is broken up politically.  I’ve also come to terms with how unreliable even “conservative Republicans” are at respecting the agenda of their constituency.  So even outcomes that put the Democrats fully in charge of all branches of government at both the state and national level will not drive me to desperation.  So here are some thought experiments on possible outcomes and their effects on the country and my reaction to them.

What are the possible outcomes, broadly speaking? There are five categories that the results break down into.  I’ll start with the easiest cases and work my way up from there.  The two most common outcomes are either the Democrat clearly wins or the Republican clearly wins.  Those are the outcomes that will have the least chance for irregular actions by the candidates or their proxies.  Nothing much needs to be said about how those successions are performed because they are the routine occurrences that we see every four or eight years in our country.

The next pair of outcomes is one or the other of the two candidates wins but by a very small margin in one or more states and the two parties litigate the results in the state and federal courts.  This is the outcome we saw in 2000 between George W. Bush and Al Gore over the Florida count.  That time it went to the Supreme Court which decided that allowing local jurisdictions to tamper with the ballots was an unacceptable process.  Twenty years ago, this was a much less polarized country and the appearance of propriety was important even to the Democrats back then.  If this election gets hauled into the courts and ballots are counted by political hacks no one is going to be satisfied that an honest count is being performed.  This will surely increase the level of polarization to positively stratospheric heights and surely will push us into uglier and uglier collisions for the foreseeable future.  In these two cases whichever party wins the election the new president will effectively have half the country dead set against him.

And then there is the fifth outcome.  In this scenario a close election results in a breakdown of the system.  Both sides contend that they won and the impasse moves into an insurrection in which both sides use extra-legal actions to seize power in Washington and begin some level of armed conflict.  This one is a complete mystery.  We’ve never seen this happen and it could be as bad as it gets.  Let’s not forget that the nuclear arsenal is out there and our enemies would take advantage of a civil conflict to damage us in any way they think they can.

Now let’s look at my reaction to each of these outcomes.

In outcome one President Trump wins a clear victory.  I celebrate by spending the holidays listening endlessly to leftists crying and screaming that the world has come to an end.  Life goes on and there is hope for improvement.

In outcome two Biden wins a clear victory.  I start living life as independently of the established governmental controls as I am able.

In outcome three President Trump wins a bitterly contested victory.  I celebrate by spending the holidays listening endlessly to leftists crying and screaming that the world has come to an end.  I anticipate a future breach between the red and blue states and begin making plans to find a safe haven.

In outcome four Biden wins a bitterly contested victory.  I anticipate a future breach between the red and blue states and begin making plans to find a safe haven.

In outcome five I try to figure out the safest place in the country to avoid my family being overrun by a war.

As you can see, I think the only outcome that lets me continue a normal life is a decisive victory by President Trump.  Anything else indicates a country that will no longer operate the way it was supposed to.  And because a virtual insurrection is already occurring, I can anticipate that things will get much worse after any of the other scenarios mentioned.

But I don’t see any reason to despair.  Resolution of the present impasse is the inevitable end of this struggle.  Trying to avoid it will simply allow the Left to take the initiative to settle it on their own terms.  This has to happen so let it happen.

Just use your head.  Don’t paint a target on yourself and be aware of the people around you and of their loyalties.  Be prepared to help and protect your family and friends during times of unrest and actual danger.  If something very serious is anticipated be prepared to get away to a safe haven on very short notice.  Don’t disbelieve your own eyes and ears.  When normal patterns break down anomalous behavior is to be expected.  Have emergency supplies and plans.

And relax, don’t panic, you’ll get through this.  We are not opposed by geniuses.  Just dishonest men.  Know your enemy and you can avoid the harm they intend you.

Oregon Has Legalized Murdering Conservatives

It’s an extraordinary thing.  Antifa can now murder conservatives with complete impunity.  The local and state authorities won’t even pursue the killer, even when he’s been identified by video evidence.  Oregon has now become a banana republic.  There are officially two laws, one for the people in charge and a separate one for the deplorables.  I expect this will make it clear to everyone on our side that this is no longer one country but two.  On their soil you no longer have the rights of an American and your life has no value to the authorities.  Of course, it really is a valuable piece of information to have.  It should provide context for decisions that many of us will have to make in the future.

It’s an extraordinary thing.  This used to be the greatest country in the world.  Now large parts of it are lunatic asylums.  A place like Portland, Oregon has descended into madness, the likes of which, you have to go all the way back to the French Revolution’s reign of terror to find.  The lunatics in the street and the lunatics in the city hall and the governor’s mansion have definitively thrown away, law, order and sanity.  I can understand the politicians.  They’re just prostitutes doing whatever they think the voters want them to do.  But the majority of people in Oregon have acquiesced in the madness and probably mostly agree with it.  Minneapolis is the same way.  New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, all the large cities have followed the same plan.  They plan to allow looters and arsonists to hold their citizens hostage until the November election.  If they think it will throw the election to President Trump they may convince the maniacs to go into hiding for a few months but this is the cultural revolution they plan to punish us with for as long as it takes to destroy us.

Hopefully, the murder of that fellow in Portland by the Antifa thug and the state’s tacit approval of it should be enough to awaken any real Americans who are still asleep.  If that doesn’t wake them then they’re already dead from the neck up already.  What everyone needs to understand is that we no longer have the possibility of compromise.  The two sides are diametrically opposed and have no common ground.  The only question is how the struggle will be waged.  It is obvious that they no longer consider our leaders legitimate.  We should adopt the same opinion concerning theirs.  If Joe Biden occupies the White House in 2021 he will be an enemy that I will work against in any way I can.  If President Trump prevails in November I hope he uses all means at his disposal to purge the federal government of Democrat cabalists and uses his time in paring down the bureaucracy to weaken our enemies there.  He should provide all means of support at his disposal for the red states and do everything in his power to weaken and demoralize the blue states.  Any other policy would be a waste of time.

Assume that the election will be a dirty, dishonest slugfest with fraud and violence front and center.  Whatever means are used by the Republicans to win won’t be questioned by me.  They should bring in as many sleazy lawyers and dishonest judges as they can find.  Granted we’ll never be able to match the numbers that the Democrats have but we should try.  They should cut deals with whatever power brokers they can to sew up whatever support is out there.  They should use identity politics wherever it gives them an advantage and promise any ridiculous things that will get them a win on November 3rd.

It’s an extraordinary thing.  I never thought I’d say this but we aren’t going back to what we were before.  We are in a new world.  We have to weigh every option to see how it helps our side and weakens theirs.  And if you’re behind enemy lines watch your back.  These people don’t like you and they’d prefer you dead.  There is absolutely no reason to be honest with them.  Find people from our side to socialize with and avoid the pod people under any and all circumstances.  They aren’t worth it.  Not even for mockery.  They aren’t worth it.  And if you can escape into the free America I highly recommend it.  Let’s hope it will be a relatively bloodless civil war.  But either way it’s already begun.

07AUG2019 – American Greatness Post of the Day – Igniting Civil War by Anthony Codevilla

Codevilla walks us through the predictable script that bloody civil wars have taken from Corcyra in Ancient Greece all the way up to the Spanish Civil War of the 1930s.  We’ve taken the first steps.  Hopefully we can walk back to sanity.  Very good read.

https://amgreatness.com/2019/08/06/igniting-civil-war/

 

Nothing to Lose

I guess I have to address the shooter in Pittsburgh (Robert Bowers).  What can we say about him?  Ideologically he felt the Jewish people were a threat to him.  In his mind what he did was justified.  That much we know from his statements.  But why did he do it?  I’m guessing that he no longer felt what he had to lose outweighed his desire for vengeance.  And I’m guessing this is the same situation as that other shooter who went after the Republican Congressional Softball Team last year (James T. Hodgkinson).   Another man who was willing to trade his life for a chance to kill his ideological enemies.

Looking at the details of both men’s lives, it appears that neither one would be leaving behind anyone he cared about as much as the cause he was consumed by.  Both men were basically unemployed and neither had a happy home life.  Specifically, Hodgkinson was in a failed marriage and wasn’t making ends meet with a home inspection business.  Bowers is an unemployed truck driver living alone.  Both men were obsessed with political and ideological agendas and both felt that things were going badly and it required them to take violent action to redress the situation.  I think it would be accurate to say they were both consumed with hatred.

People say that what they each did was insane.  When something like this occurs both sides of the political spectrum agree that monstrous evil has occurred and that no sane person could be responsible.  And they would be right.  Only a madman would do something like this.

But here’s the question.  Are there circumstances under which anyone would do the same thing?  Pick the most pacifistic individual, Mahatma Gandhi or Mother Theresa.  Is it conceivable that even these two would find circumstances under which they would commit homicide and think it necessary?  It’s pretty hard to believe.  But if there were innocents being harmed and no other way to save them it’s conceivable that this might be sufficient.  Now look at the other end of the compassion spectrum.  Think of violent sociopaths who basically have as little compunction about murder as we have for swatting a mosquito.  What motivation would they need to snuff out the lives of their neighbors?  Very little, maybe the possibility of stealing some cash or just for the diversion the killing would provide.

In between these two extremes is everyone else.  That includes you and me and Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Nancy Pelosi, Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer, the Pope, the Ayatollah Khamenei, Ruth Bader Ginsberg, Brett Kavanaugh, Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, the Koch Brothers and all the gang-bangers, drug lords and terrorists (IRA, ISIS, al Qaeda, Shining Path, Tamil Tigers, Neo-Nazis, KKK, etc.).  It also includes great aunt Sadie, your priest or minister or rabbi and even the kid playing baseball at the local ball field.

In my estimation it’s a continuum that depends on the nature of the individual and the pressure being brought to bear to extract revenge or prevent an attack on something you value highly.  The equation is when you determine that the value of your life falls below the value of the damage prevented by some act of violence the individual will act.  And for every single human that equation is different.  Police put their lives on the line every day.  In the old days just about any man would have thrown himself in front of a gunman to save his wife (times may have changed for the millennials).  Al Qaeda inspired its members to fly planes into buildings to redress perceived western assaults on Islam.  In each case the agent is doing what he thinks is the right thing and feels logically justified in sacrificing his life.

My whole point is that in the case of the two shooters each decided that his actions and the price he would pay for them was justified under his circumstances.  Right now, we are seeing the mentally unstable with nothing to lose determining that desperate acts make sense.  We don’t want to get to a place where this calculation occurs to more and more people.  A factor that is working for us currently is the robust economy.  Unemployment is receding drastically.  That should help greatly in reducing desperation.  What isn’t helping right now is the political polarization that has engulfed us.  That will have the opposite effect, amping up the irritation felt by ideologues on both sides of the political spectrum.

These shooters are the weak links.  Their personal situations and the fervor with which they feel the ideological strain of day to day circumstances made them the snap first.  But there will be more.  If Professor Codevilla is right then this is the tip of the iceberg.  This is the microscopic effect.  Civil Strife or War is the macroscopic equivalent.  If too many people reach that breaking point then a chain reaction will occur and that will be unstoppable.  Codevilla thinks we’re already there.  Let’s hope he’s wrong.  I’ve got a lot to lose and I’ll bet you do too.

Thucydides, Again!

When someone is looking for an example he usually goes to his favorite source. So, a religious man goes to the Bible. A patriot might consult the Founding Fathers. I suppose a Hip-Hopper would quote Jay-Z. Me, I’m a classics nerd, so I go back to Athens and Rome.

Thucydides’ history is mostly very dry but there are a few passages that resonate even down to our time. Corcyra was the name of an island now known as Corfu in the Ionian Sea. When the Athenians and the Spartans were dueling for the supremacy of Fifth Century Hellas, Corcyra became a proxy in the battle between democracy and aristocracy. The two parties alternated in escalating the violence and ruthlessness when either had the upper hand. The description of the revolution in Corcyra concludes with a discussion of how partisanship became completely radicalized.

“Words had to change their ordinary meaning and to take that which was now given them. Reckless audacity came to be considered the courage of a loyal supporter; prudent hesitation, specious cowardice; moderation was held to be a cloak for unmanliness; ability to see all sides of a question incapacity to act on any. Frantic violence became the attribute of manliness; cautious plotting a justifiable means of self-defense. The advocate of extreme measures was always trustworthy; his opponent a man to be suspected. To succeed in a plot was to have a shrewd head, to divine a plot a still shrewder; but to try to provide against having to do either was to break up your party and to be afraid of your adversaries. In short, to forestall an intending criminal, or to suggest the idea of a crime where it was lacking was equally commended, until even blood became a weaker tie than party, from the superior readiness of those united by the latter to dare everything without reserve; for such associations sought not the blessings derivable from established institutions but were formed by ambition to overthrow them; and the confidence of their members in each other rested less on any religious sanction than upon complicity in crime.”

When I first read this many years ago I immediately thought, he’s talking about propaganda. A party line to rouse the true believers. But recently I started thinking about how this relates to our world. These people were living through bloody revolution. The recent version (well, relatively) would be the French Revolution. Here two factions of countrymen devolve into fratricidal foes. By the end, all humanity is stripped away and any atrocity can be rationalized into a necessary and in fact patriotic act.

The point is once you have decided that the genie is out of the bottle it becomes a matter of existential necessity to neutralize your enemy without possibility of recovery. Because after each side gets the upper hand the level of violence is increased by an order of magnitude. At some point it is decided, by one side or both, that it’s reached the point of no return and the only recourse is annihilation. That is the nature of civil wars. Rwanda and Yugoslavia are multicultural versions and therefore even worse.

The terms Thucydides used above are surprisingly familiar. They sound a great deal like the pundits on both sides. Hell, sometimes I sound like that. The good news is we are nowhere near Corcyra’s state of affairs. But we are already working our way down the path. The first salvos have been fired. First came Occupy Wall Street, then BLM. Now we are seeing the Antifa grow into a threat. Some on the right are attempting to answer this challenge. Clashes have already cost lives. If this is allowed to escalate it will. When the government’s control of violence weakens partisans will appear to fill the vacuum. This is extraordinarily dangerous. And it is where I see the slippery slope to serious unrest. An America, where ordinary citizens feel threatened by partisan mobs, will no longer enjoy the inherent stability it has for the last hundred years.

Now some say that open strife is inevitable. I currently don’t believe that. I fear it but I am not convinced of its inevitability. I think our current problems stem from an anti-American bias adopted by large swaths of the population that displays itself in anti-white policies. I include in this category affirmative action laws, attacks on traditional cultural institutions like religion, tolerance and even encouragement of illegal immigration and the promulgation of outrageous practices such as recognizing aberrant behaviors as normal and the encouragement by schools and media of speech codes targeting traditional cultural mores and beliefs.

I believe if these practices were ended it would go a long way toward stabilizing and improving the situation in this country. That is my belief and my hope. I would far prefer to believe that, than to think we are fated to follow Corcyra’s fate. Just to finish the story, when the Corcyran democratic faction finally achieved total control, they massacred their enemies to the last man and sold the women as slaves. The only ones who survived were the ones who had fled the island and never looked back. Not such a happy ending. Let’s see if we can sidestep that.