Politico Thinks the Rebounding Economy Will Be a Disaster for Biden

When I see an article from Politico I usually avoid it like the plague.  But when the title is “The General Election Scenario That Democrats are Dreading”  How can I resist?  It seems that the rebound of the economy will come along just in time to make the November election a bad time to be Joe Biden.

The upshot is that a V-shaped recovery will relieve the anxiety people have suffered under the COVID-19 crisis at exactly the right time to convince Americans that President Trump knows how to handle the economy best.

“On Election Day, we Democrats need voters to ask themselves, ‘Are you better off than you were four years ago?’ Republicans need voters to ask themselves, ‘Are you better off than you were four months ago?’”

And knowing how humble the President is I hope he remembers to remind Americans that he was the one pushing to re-open the economy while the Democrats wanted it to remain shutdown for up to a year.

The Merry-Go-Round Spins On

One thing that eventually gets drummed into you by sad experience is that there’s no such thing as happily ever after.  And that’s because no matter how well things are going, whenever chance conspires against us there are those who will capitalize on the opportunity and confuse the weak minded and tempt the weak willed to drag the country through more hell.  And the only things that will get you through the crisis are steady nerves, dogged determination and enough brains to think your way out of the trap.

I would characterize our present situation as exactly that.  The election and the COVID-19 epidemic are a perfect storm that will require remarkable skills to navigate successfully.  Add to this the investigations into Flynn and the other Russia-gate abuses and you have a high stakes pressure cooker, the outcome of which, absolutely no one can predict.  Look at all the possible consequences of these actions.  With respect to the investigations under Barr the outcomes range from zero to infinity.  At the zero end Durham decides that although laws were broken, the actions were in good faith and the only corrective actions should be stepped up internal oversight of sensitive operations.  At infinity we have prison terms for everyone from Lisa Page to Barack Obama.  That’s quite a range of outcomes.  Then look at the election.  So many lives have been disrupted by this emergency that trying to compensate everyone for the harm done by the shutdown is well-nigh impossible.  But the President has to make a good faith effort to do just that.  He must convince these people that his administration is the best hope for restoring the devastated middle class and that the Democrats will use this catastrophe to establish the welfare state they’ve always wanted.  And I think he will do just that and get re-elected handily.

But here is the point of this whole post.  Even if President Trump is able to achieve all the objectives on his plate.  If he gains the confidence of the voting public and gains re-election, if he restores the economy to growth and saves the small businessmen, if Barr uncovers the smoking gun and sends the Coup to prison for a couple of decades, if the Republicans capture the House, hold the Senate and add one more solid conservative vote to the Supreme Court, if the Justice Department sues the Tech Giants into restoring free speech to the Right, if all these things happen we are still exactly one disaster away from losing everything to the Left.

What we have to remember is that we’re always fighting a defensive war.  The Left has already won all the battles in the culture and we’re just curled up in a defensive crouch waiting for the next blow to fall.  The only way we will ever change the balance of power is to go on the offense and attack something of theirs.  What it will require is coordination between the Federal and State governments to pick a target and inflict a defeat on the Left that will be so unpleasant that it will elicit an overreaction that will provide the opportunity for a reinforcing defeat.  Now what this target will be is open for debate.  My thought is it should be in a deep red state that has a blue city located in it.  It could be a sanctuary city and the target could be illegal alien employment by big businesses.  A partnership between ICE and the state government could arrange for a mass arrest of illegal aliens at a large company and the Federal government could use the evidence to punish the corporation so ruthlessly that the rest of the companies panic and get their houses in order.  Once the jobs disappear the Federal government steps in and comes up with some moderate and humane way to get the illegals to go home to their lands.

Once the operation against illegal aliens in the workplace begins all the Blue States will erupt into rage and all kinds of protests will occur.  If some jurisdiction in one of the Blue States overreacts and gives the Federal government an excuse to punish them that will be the second defeat that I see as reinforcing the Left’s despair.

But it doesn’t have to be immigration.  Suppose Texas legislates against gay marriage and the Supreme Court upholds it.  Think of the insanity that would break out.  All the Blue States would then vote to unrecognize the normal marriages of citizens in Texas.  They would break off all economic trade with Texas and do any number of other stupid things for which they would suffer.  And once the Supreme Court fails to find a constitutional right for gay marriage then almost immediately about twenty states will make laws against it too.  And that would be wonderful.  We would have a de facto division of the United States into two zones.  We could call them the Normal States and Queer States.  And that would be just the start.  Abortion laws, obscenity laws, sodomy laws and other social issues would be fodder for further differences between the two camps.  And the beauty of it is no one in the Blue States is being forced to do anything they don’t want to.  The upshot should be to make the Blue States bluer and the Red States redder.  Now that’s diversity even I can stand behind.

18MAY2020 – OCF Update

Good morning folks.  As we rapidly approach summer I have had the chance to confirm certain things I believed.  The shutdown was a terrible idea foisted upon us by incompetents.  The at-risk population was the elderly and especially the chronically ill.  We have crippled our economy and possibly permanently decimated the small businesses of our independent middle class with nothing to show for it.  Very soon the Democrats will attempt to blame President Trump for doing the things they were shouting for him to do and not doing the things they forbade him to do.  So be it.  It’s his task to expose them as the liars they are.  It’s ours to support him.

One thing this whole sad spectacle has exposed is that there are way too many overweight and out of shape Americans.  Part of that is the result of an elderly baby boomer bulge in the population and the higher life expectancy today.  But our sedentary life style is extremely unhealthy.  And even a chronically lazy man such as myself will now endeavor to mend my ways.  At this point dying of the corona virus would be just too much insult to injury.

So now the part of the COVID-19 story that will interest me will be how President Trump revitalizes the areas of the country that might vote for him.  Of course he’ll want all areas to rebound but the Northeast is going out of its way to cripple its own economy by stretching out the lockdown.  He should preferentially help areas where his voters live.  And the rust belt states that got him elected should get special attention.  Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin.  Add in Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and maybe New Mexico and you’ve covered the areas where the President wants to add to supporters.

The Northeast has no electoral votes for him.  They should have the same opportunities to recover as the rest of the country but the President should direct those voters to the governors who shut their businesses down and continue to block efforts to restore life to their economies.  If they expect to escape the consequences of terrible judgement they might want to rethink their allegiance to the Left.

Surprisingly, the DOJ investigations seem to be active.  Maybe I was wrong about Barr.  Time will tell.  As far as Biden’s campaign, I think the Left can’t decide if it’s time to pull the plug by supporting Tara Reade’s story.  They are holding onto it as an insurance policy to switch candidates at the last minute.  We’ll know the moment has arrived when the networks and the newspapers suddenly discover her story’s credibility.

Looks like we’ll have a busy time ahead.  As always feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments sections.  Hard as it is to believe, there may be opinions other than my own that could be heard.

Reality Reasserts Itself

Naturam expellas furca, tamen usque recurret, et mala perrumpet furtim fastidia victrix.

You may drive nature out with a pitchfork, but she will keep coming back, victorious over your ignorant confident scorn.

― Horace

Bill DeBlasio and Andrew Cuomo can pontificate all they’d like about the dangers of the COVID-19 virus and threaten dire consequences for those who break the social distancing rules but summer weather is coming to New York City and a modern paraphrase of old Horace is that, for the young, the Law of the 3B’s (Beaches, Bikinis and Booze) trumps all others.  See the linked scenes of decidedly out of shape New Yorkers frolicking on the beaches of Jersey and Manhattanites gathering on the streets to drink beer and socialize regardless of proximity and decidedly sans masks.

If the idiots in Gracey Mansion and the Albany State House want to do something useful, what they should be thinking about is how to meaningfully protect the truly at risk, namely, the grandparents of those young people who will succumb to the virus if exposed.  Over the course of the long hot summer it would be a good idea to provide the elderly currently living in households that include people who aren’t maintaining quarantine an option to temporarily remove themselves to a group environment where strict quarantine is being practiced.  Considering how many assisted living residents have died during this epidemic it should be possible for the state to charter the empty rooms for people who are afraid they’re at risk due to proximity to the young and healthy who will carry the virus without even knowing it.

The problem is DeBlasio and Cuomo are broke.  They haven’t the cash (or brains) needed to implement a plan to actually help the situation.  All they’re capable of is grandstanding, threatening and emoting in front of the camera.  And now that policing social distancing has been racialized by the usual suspects the NYPD will stop bothering about it.  When the majority of the non-elderly discover that they won’t die from going to the local bar it won’t take long before most of city life falls back into the normal pattern.  And once that happens the percentage of people with COVID-19 antibodies will reach the herd resistance threshold pretty quickly.

I’m guessing that the northeastern states won’t do anything really constructive for the elderly.  They actually have a vested interest in maintaining the COVID-19 scamdemic as long as possible.  But New York City has successfully killed off the majority of the vulnerable elderly already (see graph below).

But now that a number of states are ending the shutdown we should know in just a few weeks whether the dire warnings from the Left are accurate or overblown.  That means by early June we’ll know where we stand.  Maybe I’ll have to eat my words and acknowledge that the Faucis and Birxes were right, that the COVID-19 virus is the apocalypse and we’ll all have to become wards of the welfare state forever.  But somehow I don’t think that’s the case.  I predict by July I’ll be hosting the photog clan to a barbecue and poolside party.  I better go add some chlorine to the pool.

Cleanup Day On My Computer Bookmarks

Today was a big day.  I was able to assure myself that the shape of the daily death curve is unmistakably trending down.  Undoubtedly they’ll keep adding the normal dead to the total but even that hasn’t made a difference.  So in honor of the occasion I deleted my links to the corona virus web pages for Worldometer and Johns Hopkins University.  Good riddance!

Now the only COVID-19 info I care about is getting the economy back on track and our manufacturing capacity out of the Land of the COVID virus.

13MAY2020 – OCF Update

Looking around it looks like we’ll be hearing about the same issues for the foreseeable future:

  • The Blue and Red States will be touting their opposing strategies for weathering the COVID-19 epidemic. Currently the Blue States have selected as their strategy of inflating the death toll to include anyone who dies in their states.  Along with this they are dragging their feet on re-opening their businesses.  The Red States are moving ahead with normalizing life in their states.  Interestingly they are not seeing large numbers of deaths like we see in New York and New Jersey.  And even with the death toll inflation in the Blue States it appears they haven’t been able to hide the fact that the epidemic is receding.  I’ll predict that in a couple of more weeks even the blue States will be anxious to declare victory and start opening up their businesses and try to salvage their economies.
  • The Flynn prosecution will spawn a controversy with the Right touting the DOJ investigation into the illegal basis of the Russia-gate prosecutions and the Left condemning Barr and Durham as partisan hacks motivated by allegiance to the Trump administration. With Durham releasing information about the scope of the conspiracy this may quickly turn into the most interesting story of the summer and fall.  If the DOJ decides not to prosecute the conspirators but instead expose and embarrass them through publication of their dishonest actions it could have the effect of vindicating President Trump and vilifying Obama and his whole administration.  And that would be very bad for a Biden candidacy.
  • The Trump and Biden campaigns will spar ceaselessly over any and all issues. What you will hear endlessly is that Joe Biden is ahead by some number of points, between 5% and 10%.  It’ll never be explained how someone as universally disdained by even the Democrat voters as Biden could manage to remain perpetually popular and ahead but that is their story and they’ll be sticking to it.
  • Currently the Tara Reade story will be a lightning rod allowing the Republicans to brand anyone who condemned Justice Kavanaugh on the testimony of Christine Blasey Ford but disbelieves Reade about Biden as hypocrites. If Reade begins to gain traction with women voters, I think we’ll finally see the Democrat party either convince Biden to step aside or begin the process of selecting an alternate candidate.  And that will be a difficult process.  Bernie Sanders will be bypassed again and that is bound to alienate his many staunch supporters.  If Bernie is left waiting at the altar again the Bernie Bros will stay home in droves, or even worse, a bunch of them will vote for Trump.
  • Nancy Pelosi has assembled a three trillion-dollar bill that would allow the bankrupt Blue States to stick the federal government with the cost of the public sector union pension funds. The Senate Leader Mitchell McConnell isn’t interested in funding this.  But President Trump may be interested in additional relief for small businesses that have been crushed by the long shutdown.  He may try to broker a deal between the House and Senate.  I know that the President also favors some kind of public works projects.  This will be a large story in the fall.
  • The China story will be a continuing saga for the Trump re-election campaign. The President has indicated that he holds China responsible for the outbreak and the subsequent damage to the American economy.  It remains to be seen if this translates into a specific policy or policies.  You could imagine some kind of incentive for American companies that relocate industrial capacity from China to the United States.

As you can see these are interesting times but currently all of these issues will be moving forward in fits and starts.  Right now, none of them has a blockbuster event occurring so there will be a lot of opinion stories producing a lot of smoke and heat but little light.  I’ll try to restrain myself from piping in on every little ripple in the pond.  What I’m hoping to see is something from Durham.  As I’ve said, I don’t think we’ll get anything too spectacular.  But I would like to see something before summer.  Failing that I’d like to see the President formulate an economic rescue plan for small businesses that is more comprehensive and fairer than the halfway measures we’ve seen so far.

So, there’s my update.  Stay tuned for whatever is breaking next.

NY State Runs Out of Old People

Today was a sort of macabre milestone.  For the first time in weeks New York did not have one of the highest totals in COVID-19 deaths in the country.

Rather than high hundreds or even more than a thousand deaths only 41 New Yorkers perished from the COVID-19 virus.

And this had a profound effect on the total deaths for the country.

The 750 nationwide deaths was the least since March 29th.  And just like that we can see that New York was sort of the COVID-19 epidemic all by itself.  And if you realize that the numbers for New Jersey and Connecticut are essentially just the suburbs for New York City it becomes even more apparent that the rest of the country just isn’t in the same category of emergency as New York City is.

So what has happened to slow the onslaught of the disease?  Well, apparently New York has finally killed off all their vulnerable elderly.  And the horrible part about that is the fact that it was mandated by the state.  As spelled out on the attached document whenever a nursing home patient was sent to a hospital with COVID-19 disease the nursing home was required to re-admit that patient as soon as the hospital had stabilized the patient.  Which of course means that nursing homes would have to accept infected patients back into their population along with their uninfected patients.  Knowing that patients over eighty are the most vulnerable to this disease the state basically played Russian roulette with all the nursing home patients.  And over time an enormous number of them died because of it.

When this fact was brought to the attention of Governor Cuomo he was unaware of it but his Health Commissioner confirmed it to him at a news conference.  Too bad he didn’t pay more attention to his actual epidemic strategy and less time worrying about his brother Fredo play acting victim on a part time basis in his basement.  If instead of locking down the working age population and destroying the economy he had quarantined the healthy nursing home patients and treated the sick ones in hospitals he might have spared tens of thousands of lives and still had an economy to work with.  Mario Cuomo didn’t seem to hit the IQ lottery with his two boys.

Finally, Some of the States Are Waking Up and Even Here in the Gulag, Signs of Life

Fifteen US states are beginning the process of getting back to normal.  States like Georgia and Arkansas are shedding most of the restrictions while Florida and Texas are selectively and incrementally opening up.  And with the two-week increments proposed to step through the process there may be big chunks of the country completely back to normal by June.  And that will be an important outcome.  Lots of economic opportunities are associated with the summer vacation schedule, so this could allow many small businesses to salvage something from the wreckage of this year.

The next milestone I’m waiting for is when the medical community admits that we’re on the downward side of the daily-new-death curve.  From my reading of it we’re already over the hump.  Even with the Blue States, for the last two weeks, calling every death a COVID-19 death, it looks like we’re about to break through.  The last five days have been steadily lower and lower totals.  So, we may hear them admit it soon.

And in addition to the progress in other parts of the country the folks in the blue states are starting to get tired of this too.  You’ve heard about protests in Michigan, Virginia and California.  Well even in the very heart of cower-in-place New England, folks are starting to ignore some of the rules.  They’re going outside for no reason!  They’re walking around without masks!  And, horror of horrors they’re going to visit relatives without a car window or a wall between them.  I was overjoyed on Sunday when my daughter and her family came over and hung around with us in the yard for a couple of hours.  And I swear I could see how much my grandsons have grown since I saw them last!  It was great.  They came to install some raised beds for Camera Girl’s gardens and they did us both a world of good just seeing and talking to them face to face.  It didn’t hurt that it broke seventy degrees yesterday for the first time this spring.  And right on cue, the road past my house was full of motorcycle riders thundering by in droves.

So, all at once we’re waking up and I can sense that nothing will slow it down.  Not even a spike in deaths.  I think even in blue states people are starting to realize this was a bad idea.  The shutdown didn’t stop the deaths.  It probably didn’t even slow it down.  It was already too late to stop the infections in the larger cities from reaching the elderly in those high-density areas.

The next fight will be over the blue states trying to get the federal government to bail them out from their civil service retirement entitlements.  I’m hoping that President Trump won’t want to do that and instead will concentrate on helping small businesses and restarting the economy.  With the election season upon us he’ll do everything he can to cheerlead the economy and eliminate problems for the people trying to get their lives back on track.  At this point Joe Biden seems to be almost a non-issue in the election.  It’s up to the President to call the shots and give us back our hope in the future.  And I think he can.

Well to paraphrase the Bard, “Now is the winter of our discontent turned glorious summer by this Son of New York.”

Friday Always Seems a Little More Optimistic

Yesterday I commented on William Barr’s lack of concrete progress in prosecuting the cabal of Deep State actors in the intelligence agencies that had tried to pull off a coup in 2017.  I was feeling pretty depressed about the whole thing.  Maybe it was a combination of being part of the ridiculous blue state cower-in-place strategy over the Wuhan flu and knowing just how much damage that policy has caused to millions of people across the country.  But today in the light of day and with a weekend coming up to enjoy I feel a little less gloomy.

After all I think about the things, I can be grateful for.  One of those things is Joe Biden.  If you could choose anyone to be the Democrat contender in a presidential race could you find anyone better than Creepy Uncle Joe?  If you go over his resume it’s simply breathtaking.  Here’s a man who comes ready made with quotes, video footage and democratic personnel who go on record disparaging his intelligence, his competence and most importantly his ethics.  Think of what can be done with hair sniffing, shoulder kneading, head nuzzling footage and a quote of what Tara Reade says Joe did to her back when she worked for him.  I can only imagine that will have a chilling effect on the suburban professional women’s vote in November.  I no longer think the Justice Department will do anything about Hunter Biden but what’s already out there should be enough to allow plenty of linkage to the whole China story.  Between the Wuhan flu and the past administration’s complicity in the off-shoring of American jobs to China it should be a very useful exercise to tie Sleepy Joe to China.  And finally, how easy will it be to take a few minutes of Joe’s verbal gaffes and nonsensical utterances to convince any but the most committed ideologues that Joe should be in an assisted living space and not the Oval Office.

And as the reports from various medical experts keep coming in it becomes easier to look beyond the confines of my blue state lockdown bubble and realize that for a large majority of the country, life will be returning to comparative normalcy very soon and with the help of the federal stimulus money economic recovery will be dramatic in many parts of the nation.  And that recovery will be exactly the right scenario to highlight the goals that the President stands, a strong American economy based on industrial capacity within the United States.  This can be contrasted to the Democrat strategies of elite prosperity coupled with universal unemployment underwritten by tech oligarchs who allow the poor to subsist on a UBI that robs their lives of dignity, purpose and hope.  And looking at the champions of this Orwellian future, at the Bernie Sanders’ and AOC’s of the democratic world, it looks easier and easier to provide the contrast needed to allow the voters the chance to choose.  Admittedly the American voting population is not uniformly rational and in fact there are whole swaths of people, especially in the blue states that will jump at the chance to institute the UBI and the Green New Deal.  But in the final analysis the Electoral College should still have sufficient actual Americans with enough intelligence to choose sanity instead of Democrats.

So, forgive my dark mood of yesterday and take heart.  President Trump is still in charge of the executive branch and William Barr isn’t the last word on justice and if he doesn’t get the job done he will be replaced by a less timid soul and I can still hope to see James Comey wearing the old timey striped pajamas working on that chain gang and using a sledge hammer to break the big ones into little ones.  O Brother, where art thou.