Morale

Back in the Bronze and Iron Ages an army won a battle based on the strategy and tactics of its general and the training and discipline of the troops.  But the wild card that could turn victory into a rout was morale.  Sometimes something ridiculous like a peal of thunder issuing from the wrong quadrant of the sky or a priest finding the wrong color entrails in a sacrifice would be enough to spook an entire army and snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.

But this is the Information Age.  We’re too smart to be cowed by superstition or fooled by clumsy lies.  Yeah, right.

Nowadays morale is the business of the media.  They tell us who will win elections and who is on the right side of history and what is beyond the pale.  And morale can be the difference between someone going to vote or staying home.  So, morale is a real factor in human affairs but one that is difficult for the man on the street to measure or even discuss meaningfully.

Luckily, I’m not the man on the street.  I’m a pundit wannabe who has to package a bunch of zeroes and ones onto an electronic page to try and entertain my long-suffering readers.  So, I can talk till the cows come home and might even bump into the truth if I’m not careful.

Here are two questions:

  • What is it worth to the Right to have someone like Trump tell the world that the Emperor has no clothes?
  • What is the result when the Deep State and the Media fire point blank at Donald Trump for eighteen months without a single scratch and all he has to do is make a disparaging noise and say fake news?

The answers are:

  1. It’s worth everything.
  2. The result is that the Media is a spent force.

I’ll explain.  It’s been thirty years since Ronald Reagan left office.  That’s how long it’s been since a Republican won a fight with the Press.  Bush Senior, Bob Dole, W, McCain, Romney, JEB!, you name them.  They’ve all been nothing but cannon fodder.  They can’t fight and they won’t fight.  Having a fighter in the White House is worth more than having seventy seats in the Senate and three hundred seats in the House.  It can’t be overstated.  Every day we can hear and see the results of his run-ins with reporters and the startling statements he makes about politicians, business leaders and foreign leaders.  And every day he blows up some other sacred cow or boondoggle.  And the cumulative effect of this is all the Sacred Cows have been discredited.  The term fake news isn’t just a zinger.  It’s become the default opinion about anything the Media says.  Used Car Salesmen are considered more trustworthy.  As I said above, the value of this cannot be overstated.

And so, the Media is a toothless tiger.  They’ve become the subject of scorn and abuse.  And the multiple media victims of the #metoo campaign and the recent case of a reporter having an affair with a federal employee to obtain classified documents only reinforces the impression that a career in journalism is only one level above crack whore.

So, for the Right Wing, all of this is like a pardon from the Governor to a Death Row prisoner.  Even up to six months ago when the Press would breathlessly report the latest Stormy Daniels tidbit or Mueller leak, Republicans would run around in circles shouting that the sky was falling.  I think that is finally over.  Even the most gutless Republican has finally learned to ignore all of this junk, once and for all.

 

And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.  It doesn’t even consider the morale boosts that come from a President who can with the stroke of a pen wipe out Coal and CO2 legislation in the EPA or pardon a rancher being harassed and imprisoned by activist judges.  And with Trump in the White House, even formerly unreliable Supreme Court judges suddenly hand down a string of right wing decisions.  And the President fills the federal courts with judges who won’t dismantle the culture in order to satisfy bizarre social justice whims.  And with his latest Supreme Court recommendation, he more than credibly fulfills the long hoped for but always frustrated dream of a reliably conservative Supreme Court willing to reverse the transparently unconstitutional decisions of the past on affirmative action, aberrant sexual behavior and first and second amendment violations.

And so, to rap this thing up, I am saying that in addition to all the things President Trump is doing to improve the country, one of the biggest benefits he provides is the boost to morale.  And this morale boost is just the thing that may get you through the tough battle when everything else is almost even.  If we ever get to the point where things are riding on the razor’s edge, high morale may be the thing that carries us over the finish line first.  Remember this the next time the naysayers say nay and the bell tollers toll doom.  It’s fake news all the way down.  Keep the faith baby.

“Narrative Collapse” or “And Now They Know That We Know it Too”

As the Conservative Treehouse linked to the results of the Harvard-Harris monthly poll we find three very encouraging results.  Look at the answer percentages on these three questions:

Do you think current border security is adequate or inadequate? 61% Inadequate / 39% Adequate

Do you support or oppose building a combination of physical and electronic barriers across the U.S.-Mexico border?  60% Support / 40% Oppose

Do you think that the Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers, known as ICE, should be disbanded or not?   31% Disbanded / 69% Not Disbanded

And this poll skews to the left with 37% Democrat, 32% Republican and 29% Independent.  Look at that number, 60% support building a wall.  That represents basically all the Republicans and all the Independents.  But if you go to the Harris Poll site and look up Harvard Harris you’ll see this headline:

“Latest Harvard-Harris Poll Finds More than 6 in 10 Registered Voters Oppose Border Wall Between U.S. and Mexico.”

But that’s the opposite result.  How can that be?  Well the poll they tout was taken back in April and preceded this one.  But wait a minute, you might say, how could 20% of the country change its mind in a month or two?  And you would be right.  That doesn’t happen.  The older poll reflects what we’ve been fed from pollsters for the last decade.  Americans want more immigration and they love those whacky, fun-loving drug runners from M13.  We can’t get enough of their idiosyncratic drive by machine gunning and intimidation of our high school children.  What’s not to love?

So how did the new headline occur?  I don’t think you’ll find a documented answer that makes sense.  I’ll give you my theory.

The narrative collapsed.

The people who put out these polls have a pretty wide latitude when it comes to selecting the participants, phrasing the questions and massaging the data they receive.  And I think they use this elasticity to produce results like the 99.9% certainty that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election.  So, I’m guessing that the difference between the April poll and the June poll was relatively large, not twenty percent but maybe five percent.  But my guess is that the real percentages in those two polls were 65% and 70%.  But you’d say, wait a minute, that’s impossible.  How could a 65% majority for the wall be turned into a 40% minority?  That’s a 25% inaccuracy.  And why then would they not just adjust the 70% to 45%.  My theory is they’ve been maintaining the same narrative that they fabricated to prop up the Obama presidency and they juiced it as hard as they could during the Clinton campaign and they held out hope that the Resistance would bring down Trump’s popularity and allow his presidency to collapse.  But the numbers keep moving farther and farther in the other direction and now they’re literally afraid of being caught cooking the books and losing their gig.  After all, other pollsters are already showing different results on these same poll questions and it must be getting a little thick for our friends at Harris and Gallup.  They don’t want to be the ones flapping in the breeze when the next Brexit or Trumpocalypse occurs.  It might mean having to get real jobs.  So the jig is up and they’ll have to start only slightly slightly tipping the scales, let’s say 5 to 10%.

And that got me thinking, what would it look like if the narrative collapsed completely?  And what would it take to cause that implosion?  My guess is that what would cause the implosion would be the success of the Trump Revolution.  Specifically, if the Republicans hold onto the House and expand their lead in the Senate and use this majority to provide President Trump with the funds to build the wall and enforce the immigration laws and the country supports this effort by re-electing him convincingly, then all of this would be enough to collapse the Narrative completely.

So this is the long answer for why those poll answers seem so different from expectations.  But there’s a short answer too.  A one-word answer.  Trump.

Ever since the primary debates he’s been telling us the Emperor’s New Clothes are fake news.  Jeb! told us that illegal immigration was love.  Trump told us it was crime.  The Media and the pollsters said Trump was part of a small, shrinking, bigoted minority.  The election showed that wasn’t so.  He keeps hammering away at the lies and evasions.  And he’s definitely winning.  And they know it.  And now they know that we know it too.

The ZMan Compares the Reality Gap in the Soviet Union with Today’s America

I like his final analogy of a supersaturated solution crashing out.  Must be the nerd in me.

“All that said, it seems that a society can tolerate only so large a gap between reality and its official truth. Whether or not we are reaching some sort of breaking point is probably impossible to know. A year ago, no one imagined the North Koreans offering to make peace. Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, no one saw it coming. Maybe people just get used to the disconnect until one day, the number of people who notice it reaches a critical mass. Then like a precipitate falling out of solution, the whole things collapses.”

 

The Reality Gap

Trumpocalypse Reloaded

Has it already been a year since that marvelous day? It certainly went fast. And how has the world changed? Well, Hillary Clinton isn’t in jail. Liberal judges are still victimizing normal Americans for trying to be normal Americans. There’s no big beautiful wall on the southern border. And the New York Times hasn’t gone out of business. So, we’re not in heaven for sure.

But the world has definitely changed and there’s no going back. A very significant part of the right knows that the GOP establishment is a sham. These people know now that Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan aren’t interested in preserving conservative values in America. They are only interested in preserving their hold on power in Washington. It has become crystal clear that the GOP establishment and the Never-Trumpers in the media are much more interested in maintaining their monopoly on right wing voters than actually doing anything to make the country a better place for those voters. With respect to immigration, trade, jobs and leftist cultural attacks they are indistinguishable from Chuck Schumer and the New York Times. And these awakened voters won’t ever forget what they’ve learned. They say knowledge is power and it is. But there’s more to it than that. Just knowing why things happen the way they do banishes the confusion that leads to despair. You’re not always blind-sided by events. It allows you to plan ahead and avoid pain and protect yourself and those you care about. It allows you to know what is possible and avoid trying to do what can’t be done. It lets you be more at peace and it makes you more effective.

Donald Trump has given us the example of someone who doesn’t let the Left dictate the terms of engagement. He rejects their framing of events and uses their own methods against them. He has become the World’s Greatest Troll. Watching how day after day, week after week, every one of their pronouncements of the end of the Trump presidency turns into a nothing burger has shown me that once people stop believing fake news the Fake News Media loses almost all its power and just becomes a laughing stock.

Of course, candidate Trump was wrong about one thing he said. I am definitely not tired of winning. In fact, I’m getting impatient again. I’d really like to hear of another Supreme Court appointment and that tax bill passed and an executive order lowering the legal immigration quota to 200 people a year. But I’m also happy to let the President get things done in his own way. He has proven to me that he is perfectly capable of advancing his agenda quickly. And finally, I am worried about Mueller. I really don’t see why he doesn’t fire that man. He’s an enemy and he will do great harm if he’s not stopped. And while the President is at it he needs to give Sessions an ultimatum, start cleaning house in the Justice Department or clear out and let someone else do it.

So, as we begin year 2 A.T. (After Trumpocalypse) I am happy and energized knowing that the changes are as much in the people as they are in the government. We know who is helping and who is hindering us. And we know which voices to ignore (or mock) and which to heed. And finally, it was so much fun to watch all those YouTube videos from a year ago as all those liberal pundits lost their minds and hopes when the Trumpocalypse swept away all their dreams and left Hillary Clinton washed up like a beached whale rotting on the shores of Loserville.

 

Since my readers don’t always stop by every day I figured I’d paste this poll on each post for a while to see what folks call themselves.  This is the post the poll came from  Who Are We?

… And that got me thinking. Who are the people who read my blog?  I thought it might be fun to see what the cross-section looked like.  If you feel like saying what you believe in, feel free to leave a comment and/or pick a label from the poll below.  I think it might be interesting.

 

Coming Soon
Total Votes : 55

 

 

 

 

 

Trump’s Statement on Charlottesville and What it Says About Him

 

In what kind of bizarro alternate reality does Donald Trump end up as the only man brave enough to speak truth to power?  While all the republican politicians and the alleged right-wing pundits groveled and cowered away from the charges of racism and Nazism being hurled by the Fake News, Donald Trump stood there and dared to proclaim that both sides of the riot at Charlottesville came prepared to spill blood.  This he did clearly, strenuously and repeatedly.  He didn’t cower or equivocate or back-pedal.  He stood his ground.  He used effective logic to show how today’s statue of Robert E Lee would be tomorrow’s Washington Monument or Jefferson Memorial.  Watching him fight the good fight should fill the rest of the right wing with shame and feelings of inadequacy.  How is it possible that a real estate builder whose biggest claim to fame was a tv show that showed him firing make believe employees is basically the only republican in the country with an intact backbone?  How did we get here?

I’ll confess I don’t know the answer.  And I don’t know if Trump can continue to stand up to every power structure in the whole world attacking from every angle.  But I will tell you that as long as he continues to show the courage and stamina to hold his ground, I’ll support him 100%.  If he needs me to send letters to my congress critters I’ll do it.  If he wants to draft me into some kind of geriatric right-wing literary goon squad whose job it is to send nasty letters to Rosie O’Donnell and Nancy Pelosi, I’ll volunteer.  If he needs cash for his defense fund once he’s retired from the White House I’ll send him cash.  Hell, if he needs a getaway car to make a break for the border I’ll drive it.  The man delivers.  He’s fearless and he’s obviously talented.  Damn, I wish he’d been president during 9-11.  We wouldn’t be in the mess we are in now.

What Trump has demonstrated is that if you stand up to the Press and push back you look good and they look stupid and dishonest.  If you speak plainly and avoid the weasel words you can get people to understand that the Left isn’t the good guys.  Sometimes they are the villains and we are the good guys, or at least we’re the lesser of two evils.

I’ve said it before jokingly but now I’m saying it completely seriously.  Trump is the best American President in my lifetime.  And that includes Reagan.  Reagan was a great president and a good man.  But Trump has been plopped down in the greatest meltdown in American history and every day he’s wrestling with the most dysfunctional array of fake newscasters, politicians, special interest groups and corporate thugs ever assembled.  And despite that he’s getting done what can be done through the power of the executive branch.  And even there he’s being harassed and sabotaged by deep state bureaucrats and operatives at every turn.  Reading the news, I wonder how long a man his age can stand up to the pounding.  But I’ll offer up a fervent prayer that he does survive.

So here’s to you President Trump.  As I’ve said before, you’re a crazy son of a bitch.  But you’re our crazy son of a bitch and the only one who just may save this country from collectivist oblivion.

Nate Silver Discovers the Liberal Echo Chamber!!!

During the run-up to the vote for the Brexit and also for Trump’s presidential victory it was consistently the case that all the establishment news sources declared emphatically that victory for the progressive position was a foregone conclusion. In fact, these pronouncements were almost always attended by snarky jibes at anyone who even hinted at an alternative outcome. And of course, the further to the moonbat-left you ventured, the more manic these pronouncements became. Especially memorable were the efforts by Stephen Colbert, Rachel Maddow and John Oliver.
After the elections, these same sources were a study in shock and astonishment. Immediately blame was cast at the polls. How could they have been so wrong? This was followed by the pollsters pointing to the closeness of the numbers for both sides and the accuracy the polls actually represented. And this brings us back to the current situation. Democrats want to know how the supreme confidence that the media outlets had in their sides’ victories was so wrong.
So the latest analysis that I read today was an article by pollster Nate Silver of FIVETHIRTYEIGHT, entitled “There Really Was A Liberal Media Bubble.” In it he discovers that there really was echo-chamber on the media left. Shocking!
Now of course to normal people this sudden realization seems utterly comic. But from the point of view of his constituency it really is sort of a brave statement. They will attack him for claiming that there was any kind of error on the left. The acceptable answer is that “the Russians hacked the election.”
Well anyway, Nate says that the problem was that the echo-chamber led the media to accept the beliefs of their own peers as representative of America in general. He lists the characteristics of a crowd that makes it representative of the larger population and shows why the media isn’t a good population to use. They are:
1) Diversity of opinion.
2) Independence.
3) Decentralization.
4) Aggregation.
According to Nate the media has aggregation but lack diversity, independence and decentralization. Very interesting. Regardless of how he’s defining diversity of opinion, independence and decentralization I’m pretty sure most of us don’t have any trouble believing the media lack these things. So let’s go along with this analysis. His point is that the inaccuracy of the media on these elections was unintended and correctable.
Yeah, I think that’s a bunch of bull.
I’m pretty certain that a decision was made that painting the election as completely out of reach would demotivate enough Trump voters in the swing states to win the election for Hillary. Likewise, in England shaming and demotivating Brexit voters was a conscious ploy. I’ll go further, I think it was also a desperate ploy. I think in both elections they knew it was slipping away from them but they kept up the best face they could in order to prevent a rout from occurring when their own voters realized that they weren’t locked into victory. Apparently progressive morale is a more fragile commodity than the right-wing equivalent. Evidence for this is on display on You-Tube in the large number of post-election videos highlighting unhinged leftists wailing and gnashing their teeth convinced that the Trumpocalypse had engulfed the universe and would soon end it.
So, there’s my thesis. I guess someone could claim that really it was more like people whistling past the graveyard and just trying to encourage themselves by not allowing any worrisome speculation on unfortunate outcomes. I don’t believe this. I think the combination of encouraging their own fragile partisans and dispiriting as many republican voters as possible was the tactic and the play.
And the test for this theory would be if Trump is able to deliver the results he ran on (the wall and deportation of illegal immigrants, reversing exportation of manufacturing jobs, restoring the middle-class) his reelection victory should be even more lopsided in the electoral college but more importantly, he will win in the popular vote too. Because as long as he keeps faith with his voters and doesn’t allow the media to define his presidency, he’ll prevent republican voters from losing heart and simultaneously he’ll depress the hell out of the commies.
Oh, and Nate Silver, he’s full of it. He knows exactly where things stand. It’s just a fig leaf.