How Many Possible Paths-Forward Are There?

Science fiction writer L. Sprague de Camp has been quoted as having said “It does not pay a prophet to be too specific.”  He was right.  Seeing into the future is a fool’s errand.  But it is also what we have to do every day of our lives.  And the farther into the future you can see the more successful you will be.

Here at Orion’s Cold Fire, prognostication is a scientific endeavor utilizing all the latest technology and the most powerful data crunching systems to make our forecasts the envy of Nostradamus.  Sure.

We live on the knife’s edge.  Everything we’ve seen in the last few years shows us that the fate of the United States and indeed the world is balanced on a teetering point and the smallest breath of wind has the capacity to save us, at least temporarily, or tumble us into the abyss.  Sucks to be us.

Lately I have been trying to figure out what are the most likely directions the future may take.  Let me number them here.

  • The clearest and in fact, the most likely future is the complete victory of progressivism. Under this scenario, political control of the Unites States and also the rest of Western civilization shifts irreversibly to the Left.  All the tenets of progressivism, feminism, LGBTQ orthodoxy, anti-white quota legislation and socialist economics prevail.  Free speech, gun rights and freedom of religion are abolished.  An all-powerful, all pervasive state control settles over the lives of the citizenry.  Basically slavery.  I think this has a very good likelihood of occurring.  And the method will be a gradual tightening of all the policies that will lead to this endpoint.  It won’t be necessary to legislate any of these things abruptly.  Gradual is better.  How’s that for grim?
  • Another possibility I can think of is a branch off of the first scenario. The progressives win a big election.  They start initiating their agenda and someone does something.  Let’s call it a revolt.  Some kind of resistance that incorporates individuals taking action that becomes a rallying point for local or state government action.  This grows into a larger movement and this requires a response by the Federal government.  To make this a distinct case from scenario 1, we have to assume that it isn’t suppressed and leads to a split in the country.  At least two distinct geographic entities would occupy what is now the United States.  For this scenario let us pick the case that a successful path forward is arranged and both (or more) daughter states move forward along independent paths with more or less cooperation between them.
  • The third possibility and the least likely scenario is that the progressives lose. Somehow President Trump successfully manages to turn the American project back into the direction of freedom and sanity and reasonable men follow him in reversing the outrages of the last half century and putting us back on the path of freedom and healthy social relations.  This is my idea of the happy ending.
  • The fourth scenario is a full-scale civil war of the type seen in Yugoslavia. If this occurs, I assume the likeliest outcome is a divided country with an eventual armistice and population shifts to allow people to choose between two very polarized and hostile camps.  This would be an extreme version of Option 2.
  • In option 5 our enemies around the world see our weakness and division and nuke us into oblivion. This is also a slightly less likely scenario but far from improbable.

I’m sure there are several other cases that I’ve neglected.  If you have your own idea for a different version feel free to leave it in the attached poll or comments.

 

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Where Do We Go from Here? – Part 1

In an earlier post, I defined my position in the spectrum of the political right by saying that I recognized the uselessness of the establishment republicans but was not ready to accept the balkanization of the United States as predicted by the Alt-Right. That’s how I defined it but I didn’t specify what I believed was the actual trajectory America would trace in the near future.  And I didn’t specify it for a very good reason.  I have no idea what will befall us.  By which I mean that unlike some others I think we have several possible paths and I can’t decide if any are close to certainty.  In fact, I can’t even say which I think the likeliest.

Up until Donald Trump’s unexpected end-run around both the GOP Establishment (GOPE) and Hillary Clinton, I was pretty sure that America as a free republic was over and we were headed for the kind of corporatist socialism that Europe has descended into. I anticipated the stripping of first and second amendment rights and the continuing importation of a new third world population to strip the sovereignty from the legitimate citizens of the United States.  Let’s call this the default option for our future.  That’s the trajectory that President Trump is trying to deflect us from.  In my gloomier moments I believe we will continue on this course.

Another possibility is what I call the Hays Code version or “Happily Ever After.” That’s where we come to our senses and start reversing all the damage done since the 1960s.  This requires a Supreme Court to strike down large swaths of the affirmative action legislation of the sixties and seventies (and beyond), and a Congress to reverse the unsustainable immigration policies of the 1960s and an agenda that returns to policies that encourage strong families, safe communities and prosperity.  This is the fondest hope of my sunniest moments.

And then there are the other less peaceful scenarios.

A mild version would be an insurgency in one or more states during a Democratic presidency. Something that is too large to be handled by the FBI or ATF.  Say a revolt based on gun rights being violated by the Supreme Court or Presidential executive order.  Once the events escalated past civilians shooting federal agents and they shooting back it would be very hard to put the pieces back together again.  In a particularly right-wing state like Texas I would guess there would be little popularity with state officials for rounding up their citizens for resisting unconstitutional actions by the feds.  Resistance by the state governments could lead to a breakdown in federal credibility.  And that could lead to a re-examination of how out of whack the government is becoming.  That might cause a change for the better and possibly constructive changes in the way our country works.  Or it could break the whole thing apart.

The Alt-Right vision is of some kind of ethno-nationalist revolt with an insurgency that leads to a division of the country into separate states. This is a possibility but honestly, the outcomes are completely unpredictable.  So many factors, including unfriendly foreign states, rogue military actions with weaponry varying from small arms to nukes, disruption of food and fuel supplies leading to everything from starvation to bloody insurrection and worse.  Can you imagine a Yugoslavia style civil war with multiple sides?  I’m just not smart enough to imagine a scenario in this that I look forward to.

There’s the possibility of a military coup by the right, or the left. The latter never seemed an option before but after Obama has peppered the ranks with leftists it’s a possibility, if a slight one.  The former case is completely possible.  A right wing coup might unilaterally impose secession of all but the Northeast and West Coast.  If this coup managed to monopolize the nuclear armament it would de-facto create a reality that couldn’t be easily resisted.

Here’s a weird one. California has been talking about secession.  But what if the “sanctuary state” in California is interpreted as a rebellion against the Federal government and Congress and the President declare California in rebellion and strips it of voting rights and installs a military governor to restore order.  Can you imagine a Federal program to repatriate all of California’s illegal aliens?  That is almost science fiction.  But how different is it from the Japanese internment camps?

And the possibilities become weirder from there.

Suffice it to say that I am much more comfortable with a more normal path forward. But I fully realize that we must push back against the leftists.  They are confident that no one will push back the clock to undo whatever they have captured today.  This must be changed.  First up is a new Supreme Court to reverse the worst aspects of the new society.  If Kennedy does not find for the cake baker in the gay wedding case then we have to wait until he leaves or one of the older democrats is forced to vacate by reason of health problems.  Or maybe we get enough congressional seats to vote in a larger Supreme Court.  But without a doubt we have to push things back in every way we can.

One thing that has become completely clear is that leftists can’t be negotiated with. They must be defeated at the ballot box and in every other venue.  They won’t be satisfied until they have removed everything in life that is wholesome and good.  They say they don’t believe in evil.  But everything they are fighting for is evil.  That seems clear.  We can’t wait for them to come to their senses.  We must push for the change that is needed to preserve the good that once existed in this country.  And there’s no time to waste.  In late installments I’ll try to figure out how we can avoid everything but the “Happily Ever After” scenario.  Wish me luck!