Some Progress on the Lockdown

Now you folks may not know this but I am essential. Maybe not in respect to my blogging activities (although individuals of truly discerning taste could convince me otherwise if they tried) but relative to my other qualifications. I work in an essential industry that provides critical stuff. For the last three weeks or so I’ve only gone into work one day. But somehow, working from home I’ve been able to critically impact the essence of something or other. Or so I’m told.

But now word has come down that in a very few weeks I’ll be heading back to the salt mines. Not full time. We’ll be staggering our days at the plant on an every-other day basis (three days one week, two days the next week) which will allow us to stagger our seating arrangement and maintain enough space to prevent us from bumping into each other in the aisles. Also, we’ll be masked and bathed in hand sanitizer. It sounds wonderful until we bump into someone that’s not wearing a mask. People at this point shouldn’t be getting away with not wearing a mask, as there are lots of options to choose from and it benefits everyone’s safety.

Anyway, I take this as a sign that reality is starting to temper the paranoid risk aversion that has become like a mystery cult in most corporations. Apparently, productivity has plummeted to such an extent that corporate survival has finally overcome the fear of being sued for COVID-19 deaths in the workplace.

This is the first sign that normalcy is returning. Big corporations are the first to hear from the bureaucracy when things are about to happen. I take this to mean that we’ll start hearing about changes at the end of April. And it makes sense. Places like New York City will be the last places to end the quarantine. The density of the population and the high infection rates ensures that hospital cases will continue for months to come. But outside of the Northeast and the West Coast we can expect gradual easing on the quarantine requirements in May.

I fully expect nursing homes and assisted living facilities will maintain strict isolation to prevent the kind of deaths that occurred in Washington State at the nursing homes that were affected. And any other guidelines that the doctors can provide for truly at-risk people would be useful. But if you’re thirty-five years old and don’t have a chronic heart or lung condition or weigh three hundred pounds why do they have you sitting at home without a pay check to feed your family?

You can depend on the New York Times and CNN to declare President Trump a war criminal for letting us out of lockdown before the complete collapse of the economy and thereby threatening their election narrative. But he’s smart enough to do what needs doing. I expect he’ll run on restoring the economy to high performance and locking down the borders. And included in the border lockdown will be shutting down the air routes to China. It’s the smart thing to do and it will sell very well at election time. It will reinforce Biden’s crony links to China and resonate with anyone who has suffered because of the COVID-19 shutdowns.

So, hang in there my fellow prisoners. The jail break is coming soon so hurry up sharpening that shiv.

My Latest Take on the Coronavirus

Like everyone else I’ve been reading about the coronavirus for the last couple of months and trying to decide how dangerous this bug is. The situation in China was alarming but also puzzling. The information was obviously being parsed by the Chinese government there to minimize the negative impact on their economy and reputation. Now that the virus is global, better information is emerging. I found a very useful website that not only has all the data that is available from the health organizations but also some helpful tables and graphs that make clear some of the characteristics of this outbreak.

Something that I had heard but didn’t have good information on was the correlation between age and mortality rate. This table will put that into perspective.

Notice that in general, the mortality rates for this virus are much higher than the seasonal flu. 0.2% of people in their twenties who catch this die. Compare that with the seasonal flu where the mortality for that age group in the United States is considerably less than 0.002%. So this measures a thousand times deadlier than the flu. But the joker in the deck is that’s comparing flu statistics for the United States versus what are mostly deaths in China. Now that the bug is spreading outside of China we are seeing the proportion of critical cases sink.

Look at the lower curve which shows the death rate over time. What this reflects is the improved statistics we now have and the better care that patients receive in regions with modern healthcare infrastructure. Without a doubt, this virus is much more virulent than seasonal flu. Its mortality rate is thirty times higher (3% vs, 0.1%). That’s nowhere near the thousand times higher rate we saw above, but it’s still really high. In 2018 61,000 Americans died from the flu. 80% of those were the elderly. If coronavirus really is thirty times deadlier that means 1,800,000 Americans will die from this virus, of which 1,440,000 will be elderly. That’s a big number. And now being personally on the upper side of the age divide that of course makes it even more interesting! The seriousness of the virus is precisely why so many people are taking additional precautions to limit its spread. One of the most popular things to come out of the pandemic is the increased use of PPE, especially face masks. Because of the demand for them, they can be particularly difficult to acquire normally in the store which is why many are sourcing them online on sites like this –

Here’s my takeaway. It’s still too soon to know if the estimates on mortality are as high as they seem. It will take testing of the general population to tell if we’re underestimating the number of people who have been exposed to the virus but have been counted among the regular flu sufferers. If the actual mortality rate is closer to the 0.1% that a normal flu virus has then this won’t cause much more than the panic that is currently roiling the stock market.

But if it is as high as even 1% and it becomes a pandemic, then it’s going to kill a lot of old people. It won’t kill many younger people and almost no children. That probably means it won’t shut down the economy. It won’t even shut down the school system. But it will fill up the hospitals and funeral homes and empty out the nursing homes. Pretty grim thought. Will it become a pandemic? It’s starting to look like it already has. All over the world, people seem to be dying of this disease. Currently, there isn’t that much research on the disease, but it is known that it can impact the lungs quite significantly. For those concerned that they might have caught Coronavirus, it might be worth comparing your lungs to someone with the disease. To do this, people could use the COVID-19 lung ultrasound imager from Butterfly Network, for example. That device helps people to see their lungs, allowing them to see if they are inflamed. If they are, it could be a sign that the person has the disease. With this information, this person may want to contact their local healthcare department for treatment to ensure this disease doesn’t spread much more. Whilst we don’t know much about this disease, it’s important for people to take extra precautions to keep everyone safe. Soon we’ll find out if it’s the flu or the angel of death for the elderly.