Kursk and General Thoughts on Ukraine
The story I heard was that the Russians used a natural gas pipeline to move hundreds of troops several miles behind the Ukrainian lines and the panic this caused in several locations within the Ukrainian Kursk front has disrupted the situation and according to some reports is leading to a rout.
It will take a day or two before reports can be confirmed. But this may be the beginning of an overall shift in the battlefield situation. Up until now the words, meatgrinder, attrition and horrendously slow seemed to be the best way to describe the war. Russia has been making steady but glacially slow progress in capturing the four provinces they’ve declared their own.
The exception was Ukraine’s lightning strike into Russia’s Kursk region that seemed to catch Moscow off balance before stalling out. Zelensky had hoped that Kursk could be used as a bargaining chip in eventual negotiations with Russia. But this new situation may be Russia’s determination to put an end to the Kursk front.
If Ukraine retreats from Kursk, I think it might signal a broader collapse of Ukrainian military resolve. But as I said above it’s too soon to know if some of these reports are Russian bravado over their pipeline strategy.
But even regardless of the impact of this attack it almost surely seems the Russians have the wherewithal to eventually wear down the Ukrainian army into submission. These are two stubborn enemies and the attrition is mutually destructive. All Russia has as advantage, is size. As I’ve said Russia will lose two million men and Ukraine will lose one million and Russia will win.
That’s victory?
From my point of view, Trump will not arbitrate this negotiation. At best he is forcing the Ukrainians to the bargaining table by refusing continued military aid.
But he has no special insight into the psychology of these two closely related peoples. This is very, very close to a civil war. And considering how many Russians live in Ukraine it’s even more personal than that. The only ones who might be able to negotiate an early end to this war are Vladimir Putin and whoever the Ukrainians pick as their leader. Is that Zelensky? I doubt it, but it’s possible. The reason I doubt it is that Zelensky has rejected much better Russian deals in the past and vowed that he would force Russia out of all Ukrainian lands including Crimea. I think he would fear for his own safety if he came back with a worse deal that cedes the lands Russia demands. But whoever it is I believe that the sooner they start talking the better, for Ukraine. Every day that passes more Russians die and more Ukrainian land passes into Russian control. Eventually Russia will win on the battle field everything it currently wants through negotiation. However, as the Russian casualties continue to mount so will their demands. Eventually it might come to include all Ukraine.
And not all the blame goes to Russia and Ukraine. Joe Biden and Boris Johnson convinced Zelensky that the Turkish peace talks weren’t as good as what they would get with the help of western weapons and intelligence aid. This terrible advice was a siren song that seduced the Ukrainians into thinking we knew what we were talking about. That was a crime. Because we were stupid or maybe we didn’t care and just wanted to see Russia damaged even if it meant killing every last Ukrainian. Because we knew or should have known that the Russians weren’t going to let Ukrainians mistreat the Russians living in Ukraine. They’ve been living there for hundreds of years. It’s as if California somehow became part of Mexico again and then the Mexicans started to abuse the Americans living there. Who thinks that the United States would just stand by while our countrymen were abused and killed. We would do just exactly what the Russians are doing right now.
So that’s my thought. Ukrainians and Russians know the psychology of their relationship better than anyone else. The sooner those two sides sit down at the negotiating table the sooner the killing can stop. Hopefully for good. Because it’s not as if they’re going to somehow move farther apart. They better learn how to be neighbors of some sort.
Ukraine has been an absolute clown show since the collapse of the Soviet Union, we negotiated a deal in the 90’s. They returned the nukes they couldn’t use and we would make them a NATO protectorate. No NATO statehood, but protection. After it is rumoured we overthrew their government in 2014, and set up laundry services for forgien aid, they have become increasingly more hard lined, and demanding. I have to see their point, we broke it, so we bought it. I also remember reading about the tensions over Soviet arming if Cuba, and there is no land bridge to… Read more »
Much true, however, if the Russians actually met European forces (NATO without the US and Canada) on the battlefield the Russkies would be slaughtered. The EU alone has more flyable combat aircraft than Putin, with much better aircraft, radars, systems and weapons. German tanks outmatch even the best Russian tanks, let alone the quality of the crews. And with much of NATO using M1 tanks, fully upgraded, well, we saw what happened to Russian armor in Iraq, twice. The vaunted Russian S300 and S400 antiair systems have been proven by the US and Israel to be paper bears. Our shock… Read more »
But do they have the political will and can they bring more than yellow and blue flags on their social media postings. This is essentially what the people who would be tasked with fighting in that region are doing at this time. They gave up nuclear energy to appease the swedish doom goblin, and allowed their shortsighted policies to addict them to Russian supplied natural gas reserves. They have filled Putin’s coffers with more money than they have squandered on the comedian president cum dictator. They might have the treasure, sweat and blood to spend, but do they have the… Read more »
Maybe not, but they have made a great show of solidarity. Mostly because they fear if Russia retakes Ukraine, Russia will then try to take Poland, Romania, etc. as soon as they recoup their losses. And because they see in Trump and the American electorate the US attitude of “we ain’t paying for your security anymore, quit living off our defense budget.” Canada and West Europe has financed their vaunted social programs, such as “free” medical care, at the cost of the US defense budget Time to wean them off the American teat. That is why they are now talking… Read more »