Yeah 2026 is looking dicey to say the least. 2028 looks good for Presidential unless something goes wrong (or is made to go wrong A La 2020). The Democrat presidential slate is looking very weak in comparison to either Vance or Rubio. The 2028 Senate and House I would say LEAN republican, but it depends heavily on local status, especially the economy, and if the Dems get the House or Senate in 2026 they can play havoc with that.
2028 is critical as whoever holds the executive in 2029 on the lead-up to the census controls how that counting is done. It would help to have Congress just in case some Judge (I’m looking at YOU Boasberg ) gets feisty and throws a hissy fit (sorry, injunction) against counting methods. As it is several blue states are due to lose representation (CA, NY RI and a couple others) to several Red States (Especially FL and TX). The magnitude of those losses depends on how you count. The Constitution says (Article I, Section 2, Clause 3)
Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons. The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct.
The Thirteenth Amendment and the Indian Citizenship Act of 1924 essentially reduce it to “the whole Number of free Persons”. As it is free persons, the clear interpretation is any human beings you find (sadly) not Citizens or Voting age Citizens or similar that would make better sense. Changing that would likely take a constitutional amendment. However, two issues would require at most Congressional support (and possibly are within the realm of the Executive branch).
The first is that currently, many populations are estimated, especially in large cities, and those estimates include folks who may or may not exist. The constitutional language seems clear: “The actual Enumeration” estimation is NOT by any means enumeration/counting and certainly is NOT within what the writers likely envisioned with that language. Certainly, the aspect of recording names and addresses of each person is contrary to just estimating. Throw away the estimates, and large Cities (Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, and NYC, as well as likely some Red cities like DFW, Austin, Miami and Atlanta) lose large swaths of their populations.
The second is the last half of the census sentence “and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct”. This seems to give great latitude to Congress on how the Census should/must be run. It may be that Congress long ago delegated this power to the Executive.
So control of the 2030 Census could drive control of the House delegations through 2040. It will be interesting to see if the Democrat side understands/admits this quandary. If the Democrats find some Abigail Spanberger (run from the middle until elected) type candidate, they might be able to squeak things out in 2028. The problem is their base loves the Squad/Mamdani/Platner/etc and the base is who turns out for primaries. That is going to drive the Democrat candidates hard left, and Hard Left does NOT win the presidency. On top of that a Hard Left candidate will only have “coattails” in blue or bluish states, That means getting the House in opposition to a popular Republican candidate will be a challenge (or so I dearly hope).