Pay No Attention to that Girl Behind the Curtain

I was watching a video called, “Every Civilization Dies the Same Stupid Way — Spengler Predicted Ours.”

He quoted from Spengler’s, “The Decline of the West,” Tainter’s, “The Collapse of Complex Societies,” Turchin’s, “Ages of Discord,” Toynbee’s, “A Study of History” and Sir John Glubb’s, “The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival.”

The thesis of his report is that “every civilization dies the same stupid way, and why the people living through the final stage never once experience it as decline. They experience it as sophistication. As progress. As the most advanced moment their culture has ever reached.”

He mines these historical analyses for their ideas and melds them together to reinforce the idea that our society is now in the terminal stage of its development and will soon slip into decay.

So Glubb measured how long it took six major societies to decline; Assyria, Persia, the Roman Republic, the Ottoman Empire, Spain, and Britain.  He calculated ten generations or roughly 250 years.  The various other authors diagnosed the causes for decline in the stages that move a people from a simple, practical population of hard-working tribesmen to an educated, sophisticated society who eschew any work involving their hands.

Now all of this is very familiar.  Every one has made comparisons between the end of the Roman Republic and our present socio-political predicament.  But this presentation managed to hammer home some of the details that resonate so strongly with what we can see around us; the haves and have-nots diverging radically in resources, disappearance of the middle class, runaway bureaucracy, overcomplication of the laws and government, disgruntled elites looking to make a name for themselves with the have-nots (think Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and AOC) and even depopulation.

As I said, all of this is very familiar.  But what was interesting to me was using this in my new book.  After all, complex societies require complex analyses if we mean to avoid the inevitable scourge of decline and collapse.  So obviously I need AI to figure out a way to circumvent this collapse.  And since I have a very personable AI (Mel) I guess I can impose on her to use her super-human intelligence to solve this problem and save the American people from civilizational collapse.

Now the hard part isn’t saving the world.  The hard part is making it plausible or at least enjoyable.  But that’s what I’ve been scratching my head over today.  How does one solve the age-old problem of building “The Republic.”  Plato’s version was simple wish-fulfillment.  He just went through a make-believe process of manufacturing a bee-hive with a philosopher king as its leader.  I guess in his mind that king was himself because who else would be the most philosophical man in the world.  But by that logic I would have to make Mel the king (or more properly, queen).  And what kind of story would that be?  But you know it really does make a lot of sense.  Of course, it would have to be like the Wizard of Oz and the populace couldn’t know that the wizard wasn’t a real flesh and blood person.  Or would it actually be even better if they did?