Tag: Guest Contributors

Guest Contributor – Tregonsee – 19MAY2026 – Politics

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Hard to call for 2026. Right now the house is held by 5 republicans plus an independent who caucuses with them. with the California redistrict vs Florida and the lame one seat win in Louisiana (which could have been 2) AND Indiana going AWOL I think it’s going to be very tight, likely slightly Democrat (5-10 seats). The big question on the Senate side is Platner vs Collins. Collins is not the best candidate from a conservative view, But probably better for us than Platner most days. Platner is such a fricking mess and there’s likely far more dirt that Collins can use that the elderly and upstate folks probably will swamp Portland and Southern Maine. The thing that would be good to do is close out Iran but resolving that such that things recover before 11/3 will take some really lucky breaks that I just don’t see happening. We HAVE to stop them from getting a nuclear weapon they make North Korea look like a calm reasonable opponent.
One race to watch is the LA mayor. If LA unblues enough to elect Pratt all then things get really odd.

2028 is a totally different situation. Likely, the major issue (Iran) will be resolved at some level. That unblocks large parts of the economy. Although the last half of the Trump administration probably gets stalled due to a blue house (and tied or slightly blue senate) they really cant do much as they haven’t got a veto proof majority and are unlikely to get one. So we get 2 years of sitzkrieg unless a miracle occurs.
Problem is the Democrats have no one that can easily steal states from the electoral coalition that Trump used. Newsome is an idiot and anathema to middle America, AOC is worse. Spanberger might have been an option but her run at the gerrymandering and the gun nonsense makes it clear she is just a traditional far left Liberal cosplaying as middie of the road. Buttigieg? Please don’t make me laugh. Shapiro from PA? If they would take him he MIGHT have a chance. Except he is never getting by the primaries because of the massive antisemitism of the democrat far left base. Kamala? She couldn’t even hardly touch Trump who had massive negatives in her base. The blue Gerontacracy that was boosted by Obama backstabbing any up and coming Pols means their bench is essentially all folks politically based in deep blue one party states. They have no clue where the middle is and any attempt to go there will get you slammed in the primaries. And because these are such lame candidates they will have basically no coattails. I’d expect things in 2028 to swing back to a more 2024 like situation with likely small Republican margins. And that takes us to 2030 where the big prize is fixing the ersatz 2020 census. That census is going to be absolutely critical, not controlling it will mean you’re headed to the edges for up to 10 years. It will already slame the blue states even if the questionable practices of 2020 are not removed. If they are removed the house might lean 20+ seats red in the 2032 elections.

The one big worry is we have 2 fairly old Supreme Court members who are the bulwarks of originalist interpretation (Thomas at 77 and Alito at 76). Should we lose them and the Senate is blue or evenly divided replacing them with other than some squishball moderate gets REAL hard. Add Roberts at 71 who although not SUPER dependable tends more to the originalist side unless he is trying to curry favor or look wise.

Guest Contributor – Tregonsee – 12MAY2026 – Good Stories for the Movies

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Interesting thought what would make good Sci-fi/Fantasy Movies. Previously much of sci-fi and fantasy was off limits as the settings (and other races) were unachievable at any price. Movies like the Avengers pictures, Project Hail Mary, Lord of the Rings and the recent Dune show that the capability is there (although at a steep price in some cases.
Some I can think of are:

Lensman series: Start with Galactic Patrol, tweak SOME of the characters (e.g. make C. MacDougall a full blown doctor instead of a nurse). The No Female Lensman will be a hard sell (with one exception) but I think it has to stay. At one point J Michael Straczynski of Babylon 5 fame was looking at this in the early 2010’s but I think the rights expired

Zelanzy’s Amber Series. Nine Princes in Amber starts as a noir pulp mystery and then goes weird. Casting will be hard, the initial movie shouldn’t be too hard/expensive, though, as we move through things, the movie cost goes up. Do it right, and it will be no problem

Heinlein The Moon is A Harsh Mistress, No aliens, mostly indoor shooting, a rogue AI this actually might be a cheap one and done right would be a stunner.

Connie Willis To Say Nothing of the Dog . Again mostly indoor shoots and outdoor in some equivalent to the River Thames River C. 1890. Get all the Victorian costumes from the BBC for a few pence. A comedy, a time travel story, a mystery, rescuing an extinct species, and some romances rolled all into one. It’d make a great date movie. Again, I think casting will be critical, people are going to have to really sell their roles and the number of modern actors who do that well are limited.

Matt Dinniman Dungeon Crawler Carl series: I just ran into this. It is a riot about how Earth and its populace get turned into a reality show of a dungeon. all the fantasy animals will be a bear and having a magically enhanced Persian cat as a main character may present issues, but again, limited sets, and this will draw the male/gamer audience back to the theater (and their Dates may just enjoy themselves in the process)

Any other thoughts on these (or others)?

Guest Contributor – Tregonsee – 07MAY2026 – Things to Come

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Yeah 2026 is looking dicey to say the least. 2028 looks good for Presidential unless something goes wrong (or is made to go wrong A La 2020). The Democrat presidential slate is looking very weak in comparison to either Vance or Rubio. The 2028 Senate and House I would say LEAN republican, but it depends heavily on local status, especially the economy, and if the Dems get the House or Senate in 2026 they can play havoc with that.
2028 is critical as whoever holds the executive in 2029 on the lead-up to the census controls how that counting is done. It would help to have Congress just in case some Judge (I’m looking at YOU Boasberg ) gets feisty and throws a hissy fit (sorry, injunction) against counting methods. As it is several blue states are due to lose representation (CA, NY RI and a couple others) to several Red States (Especially FL and TX). The magnitude of those losses depends on how you count. The Constitution says (Article I, Section 2, Clause 3)

Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons. The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct.

 

 

The Thirteenth Amendment and the Indian Citizenship Act of 1924 essentially reduce it to “the whole Number of free Persons”. As it is free persons, the clear interpretation is any human beings you find (sadly) not Citizens or Voting age Citizens or similar that would make better sense. Changing that would likely take a constitutional amendment. However, two issues would require at most Congressional support (and possibly are within the realm of the Executive branch).

The first is that currently, many populations are estimated, especially in large cities, and those estimates include folks who may or may not exist. The constitutional language seems clear: “The actual Enumeration” estimation is NOT by any means enumeration/counting and certainly is NOT within what the writers likely envisioned with that language. Certainly, the aspect of recording names and addresses of each person is contrary to just estimating. Throw away the estimates, and large Cities (Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, and NYC, as well as likely some Red cities like DFW, Austin, Miami and Atlanta) lose large swaths of their populations.

The second is the last half of the census sentence “and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct”. This seems to give great latitude to Congress on how the Census should/must be run. It may be that Congress long ago delegated this power to the Executive.

So control of the 2030 Census could drive control of the House delegations through 2040. It will be interesting to see if the Democrat side understands/admits this quandary. If the Democrats find some Abigail Spanberger (run from the middle until elected) type candidate, they might be able to squeak things out in 2028. The problem is their base loves the Squad/Mamdani/Platner/etc and the base is who turns out for primaries. That is going to drive the Democrat candidates hard left, and Hard Left does NOT win the presidency. On top of that a Hard Left candidate will only have “coattails” in blue or bluish states, That means getting the House in opposition to a popular Republican candidate will be a challenge (or so I dearly hope).

Guest Contributor – Tregonsee – 06APR2026 – Old School Photography

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I remember helping my dad set up for shots with his Mamiya C330 TLR, no match needle, he had a Gossen Luna Pro light meter (considered one of the best of its day) that I still have (although it is inoperable as it uses batteries that are no longer common). My job was to run to various spots and get the values from the light meter. Similarly, he had a flash meter that you used to make sure the flash was providing enough light and to figure out what exposure you were going to use as the Light meter just kind of overloaded with the flash 🙂 . Modern cameras with a dozen exposure modes, built in fill flashes and all the bells and whistles you could want are amazing, but some days the shots taken on 64 ASA Kodachrome on 2 1/4 ” 220 film on the TLR are still astounding. I wonder what my dad would think of my Cannon Rebel let alone a modern Hasselblad 2 1/4 at 100 Mpixel.

Guest Contributor – Tregonsee – 03APR2026 – Photo

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This was shot in the experimental Aircraft section of the Museum of the USAF.
Details of the shot are that it was shot on a Canon EOS Rebel using a 28 MM lens af F4 1/60th second exposure ISO 800 handheld

The view looks out from the Valkyrie Cafe. The large aircraft in the foreground is the last example of the XB-70 Valkyrie bomber. Also in the frame are the YF-12 (an interceptor variant of the SR71/A-12), two gemini capsules including the Air Force Blue Gemini prototype (never flown) 2 X-24 lifting bodies (famous from the opening sequence of 6 Million Dollar Man), and barely visible to the far right at the back is an X-15.
IMG_0062.JPG
I am a bit surprised that I got as much depth of field as I did at F4, but I was shooting in shutter priority mode as I didn’t think I could hand hold it much below 1/60th

 

Guest Contributor – ArthurinCali – 27FEB2026 – AI, Yes and No

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I’m no Luddite regarding technology advances, especially regarding AI. It definitely has a place in the 21st century and in society as a powerful tool and emergent technology that can help humanity progress. However, the almost childlike faith many exhibit on its ability to never be mistaken is a troublesome factor. Numerous examples have been pointed out where AI LLMs get historical facts incorrect, or outright repeat Progressive-Liberal dogma verbatim when asked to clarify a social issue. Not really a good development to polarize public opinion on a technology they are promising will revolutionize the world. Over 400 AI data centers are currently under construction with another 900+ scheduled in the US alone. With over 1500 expected to be in operation around 2030, these questions of authenticity and quality of information provided will become more salient to the viability of AI. As to the effects on entertainment, I believe that the AI slop will become popular to a segment of the public, but another effect of this will be that human crafted works of art; whether in cinema and literature will also become more valuable to many. It will be the difference between “store bought” and “homemade” so to speak.

Guest Contributor – Tregonsee – 15FEB2026 – The Wrath of Khan-ecticut

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I do remember seeing Wrath of Khan in the theater on opening night. It was a strange day, Raining heavily when we tried to go to the matinee at a multiplex (4 theaters Wonder of Wonders!) in Orange CT. Ultimately that attempt failed as we didn’t quite make it to New Haven as my 1974 Duster was having alternator problems with the belt slipping due to the rain and splashing. We limped it back to my Buddies house grabbed a snack and hopped in his family’s ancient Suburban. Went to the 6 PM showing and watched the movie. We were enthralled (and nearly teary eyed at the “I am and always have been your friend” line as well as playing of Amazing Grace). We had noticed the rain was LOUD at times almost drowning the dialogue. Got out to Monsoon level rain and a parking lot with 3-5″ of water/ Getting home was a challenge, Rt 95 was closed in Branford due to several accidents and deep water. We were diverted eventually choosing a path along the coastal roads. Came to a bridge over a normally gentle stream running out to Long Island Sound. The bridge is normally about 4′ above the stream. The stream was now a 2′ deep torrent over the bridge. Being young stupid guys (college age) we decided to forge on. I got out and walked ahead of the Suburban to check the depth (I hope you realize this was a very bad choice and I am lucky to be writing this some 40+ years later: DO NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES DO THIS !!!). As we came off the bridge there was a low spot ahead and so I was still the depth gauge. Shortly I felt my knee bump something. It was the bumper of a Ford Taurus wagon submerged such that maybe 6″ of its roof was sticking out of the water ahead of me. Needless to say we turned around and spent a couple hours fishing about for a way back to my buddy’s home that would be passable with the 2′ or so of clearance the Suburban had. That said Wrath of Khan was well worth the journey.

Guest Contributor – Tregonsee – 12FEB2026 – LOR OR VOR

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There are 3 basic strategies to get to the moon. Direct is the is the first, the ship/capsule takes off from Earth goes to the moon, lands and then some part of that capsule/ship takes off from the moon and returns to earth. Because you’re carrying LOTS of weight you don’t need at various points (e.g. the reentry shield on the capsule is dead weight as you land on the moon) the whole thing is VERY heavy. The rockets to do this are immense (e.g. the early NOVA concept https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova_(NASA_rocket) later repurposed but never used for mars exploration). The other two alternatives are Earth Orbit Rendezvous (EOR) or Lunar Orbit Rendezvous (LOR). In EOR, you go up to a waiting lunar specific lander board it and use it for the earth to moon trip land and return to your Earth/space vehicle. This is the Von Braun/2001 model. It’s one weakness is it usually requires in space refueling of your lunar transit/lander vehicle. This is kind of what I suspect the initial SpaceX model SEEMS to be headed for with a combination of Dragon Crew, Starship cargo/fuel ferry, and Lunar Starship for transit and landing. The Apollo (and current Artemis) use LOR, with Apollo sort of used a mixed model to keep the LEM as light as possible (for a great dramatiztion of this find episode 9 of From the Earth to the Moon, also good discussion of LOR vs EOR). I think SpaceX/Musk have realized lunar Starship is overkill for the task presented, thus making EOR more feasible. They also know Starship overall depends on refueling; if they can’t do that it is kind of game over for Starship for any purpose other than LEO delivery of cargo/ satellites.

Guest Contributor – Tregonsee – 10FEB2026 – The Lunar Option

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And now he should change his name to D. D. Harriman. I’ve also always felt the Moon was a better choice. Mostly because with basic chemical rockets, it’s 3-5 days away and there are LOTS of windows to reach it. Mars is 140+ days, and that window is only roughly every two years. If you have a small initial Mars colony, no matter how many ships you have and the Stuff hits the fan, you’re on your own for on average 18 months away from outside help. With Luna its 3-5 days depending on lunar phase and you may be able just to lifeboat back to earth orbit.

Looking the 140 day or so timeline is like the early Europe to American colonies distance from Europe and America had air and food and water. And yet we still had Roanoke and lost 1/2 of Plimouth Colony the first year. Luna lets you learn in a slightly harsher environment with at least some safety net. Mars really has to wait until there are constant thrust engines (be they Nuclear Thermal, Fission/fusion pulsed or straight up fusion) so we can have .01 or .1 g constant and not have to use Hohmann (minimal energy) orbits and have 14 or 4 day transits to Mars/ Nearly every thing Elon (pardon me Delos) had planned for Mars is useful on the moon and can be further refined for future Mars work.

Also, if we’re going to do this, it should be done as G*d, Von Braun and Arthur C. Clarke intended with an orbital station to fuel lunar Starship-like beasts and send them on to the moon. We need the infrastructure. Maybe not immediately but once we try to start moving large quantities back and forth. the division of labor would help.

Guest Contributor – Tregonsee – 23JAN2026 – Often Unreliable

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I think the fondness for first person (often unreliable) or third person limited viewpoint comes from a fundamental aspect of modernist philosophy. That aspect is that in modernist thought there is NO absolute truth. There’s my truth and your truth and (heaven help us) Kamala Harris’s truth. The Omniscient narrator belies this point, for that story, their narrative is the truth. They deny that such can exist in support of their raging relativism. I think the second issue is the types of “stories” they write. Plot is limited or irrelevant, the characters aren’t characters but more archetypes or mouthpieces for their viewpoints. They view the whole purpose of literature to essentially be propaganda. The more traditional is that we are telling a story. There is probably meaning there but in general rarely is allegory the prime purpose. Not to say this doesn’t happen, e.g. Starship Troopers is a polemic on Duty, but honestly, it is also a hell of a good story. Thirdly, the modern literature folks are oddly like what the Puritans were alleged to be. They’re afraid someone might be having fun somewhere and they must prevent that at all costs.