I think the experience of the last several decades of American politics has made it clear that there are two completely different and, in some ways, diametrically opposed cultures existing within this country. And it’s also clear to me that they cannot coexist. How this will play out is not obvious. I can think of a few scenarios as to how this will evolve but which one will actually happen is unknown to me.
First, I guess is the possibility that the status quo will go on forever. I find this scenario the least likely. The amount of psychological damage being done to the country is extreme and anger that is starting to build up is starting to break out into acts of extreme violence. Look at what’s happening with psychotic individuals committing mass murders just to protest against political and social conditions. It seems to me that of its own accord the current situation will fall apart in a very few years.
The second possibility is that the two sides break into open hostilities. I think this is a likely short-term result. The range of hostilities can stretch from low level guerilla activities all the way up to organized warfare on a national scale. And it can also wax and wane. I think that warfare of whatever type is also a temporary situation. I think one way it could be settled would be for an agreement to loosen the terms of the federal government to allow both sides to control life within their own jurisdictions. So, the red states will be red and the blue states will be blue. So, by allowing the two sides to live the way they want on their home turf, it permits them to allow for the not-so United States to continue as an entity.
Another outcome would be a split of the United States into two separate countries. And of course, there would be a national divorce that allowed for the divvying up of the family assets. So, both sides would get a certain number of thermonuclear warheads and nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers and maybe someone would win a coin toss and get to keep the name United States and the US Dollar and Washington DC (although I think the red states will be happy to part with that last item).
Now there is one other outcome that I haven’t listed. And that is where one side or the other wins a complete victory on the battle field and forces the losing side to live under the conditions that the winning side dictates. And to be honest I don’t think that for both sides would want that outcome. If the red states won an all-out war, I think they would use the victory to force a separation into two states. Of course, being on the winning side, I could imagine it would be a division that favored their side pretty generously but, in any case, I think they would be glad to extricate themselves from the union with the blue states. On the other hand, I think the blue states do want to dominate the red states and if they won a military victory, they would use the situation to force their ideology on the red states.
So, this is a pretty bleak prognosis. But I think it is accurate. I guess the most optimistic scenario is that after a very brief and relatively minor war the two sides decide to stay together under a looser confederation. This is actually my hope. What do you think?

