{"id":10640,"date":"2020-04-18T14:06:21","date_gmt":"2020-04-18T18:06:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/?p=10640"},"modified":"2020-04-18T14:06:21","modified_gmt":"2020-04-18T18:06:21","slug":"33-of-those-tested-in-chelsea-ma-had-covid-19-antibodies-in-their-blood","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/18\/33-of-those-tested-in-chelsea-ma-had-covid-19-antibodies-in-their-blood\/","title":{"rendered":"33% of Those Tested in Chelsea MA Had COVID-19 Antibodies in Their Blood"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mass General Hospital performed random COVID-19 antibody testing<\/a> in a suburban neighborhood of Boston (Chelsea, MA) and found that 1\/3 of those tested were positive.\u00a0 Performing my patented back of the envelope calculations on statistics available from Massachusetts I find the following:<\/p>\n

Massachusetts has a population of about seven million people.\u00a0 1,404 Massachusetts residents have died from COVID-19 infection.\u00a0 Assuming that 33.3% of the state has been infected by the virus then the death rate from COVID-19 in Massachusetts is 0.06%.\u00a0 And that actually is in the range of deaths you’d expect from the normal flu.<\/p>\n

Alright, let’s check the assumptions.\u00a0 Is Chelsea representative of Massachusetts as a whole?\u00a0 Probably not.\u00a0 It’s more densely populated than most parts of the state.\u00a0 So let’s do the calc again for Chelsea:<\/p>\n

Chelsea has a population of about 40,000. people.\u00a0 39 Chelsea residents have died from COVID-19 infection.\u00a0 Assuming that 33.3% of Chelsea has been infected by the virus then the death rate from COVID-19 in Chelsea is 0.29%.\u00a0 Now that is higher than the death rate for the normal flu, let’s say five times higher.\u00a0 But that’s a lot less scary than the extinction event they’ve making this thing out to be.<\/p>\n

So, here is where we are.\u00a0 For most people who will “catch” the COVID-19 virus they will never know they had it.\u00a0 They’ll think their allergies or a cold gave them some symptoms for a day or two.\u00a0 For something like three people out of a thousand, mostly the elderly or the chronically ill, this virus will be a life or death struggle.\u00a0 If society wants to spare those people from risk they’ll need to be isolated.\u00a0 For everyone else we need to go on with our lives and get back to work so our taxes can pay for taking care of the vulnerable.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mass General Hospital performed random COVID-19 antibody testing in a suburban neighborhood of Boston (Chelsea, MA) and found that 1\/3 of those tested were positive.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,245,237],"tags":[2371,2372],"class_list":["post-10640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-events","category-review-of-article","category-reviews","tag-coronavirus","tag-covid-19"],"yoast_head":"\n33% of Those Tested in Chelsea MA Had COVID-19 Antibodies in Their Blood - Orion's Cold Fire<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/18\/33-of-those-tested-in-chelsea-ma-had-covid-19-antibodies-in-their-blood\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"33% of Those Tested in Chelsea MA Had COVID-19 Antibodies in Their Blood - 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