{"id":10944,"date":"2020-05-13T21:59:32","date_gmt":"2020-05-14T01:59:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/?p=10944"},"modified":"2020-05-13T21:59:32","modified_gmt":"2020-05-14T01:59:32","slug":"13may2020-ocf-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/13\/13may2020-ocf-update\/","title":{"rendered":"13MAY2020 \u2013 OCF Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Looking around it looks like we\u2019ll be hearing about the same issues for the foreseeable future:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Blue and Red States will be touting their opposing strategies for weathering the COVID-19 epidemic. Currently the Blue States have selected as their strategy of inflating the death toll to include anyone who dies in their states.\u00a0 Along with this they are dragging their feet on re-opening their businesses.\u00a0 The Red States are moving ahead with normalizing life in their states.\u00a0 Interestingly they are not seeing large numbers of deaths like we see in New York and New Jersey.\u00a0 And even with the death toll inflation in the Blue States it appears they haven\u2019t been able to hide the fact that the epidemic is receding.\u00a0 I\u2019ll predict that in a couple of more weeks even the blue States will be anxious to declare victory and start opening up their businesses and try to salvage their economies.<\/li>\n<li>The Flynn prosecution will spawn a controversy with the Right touting the DOJ investigation into the illegal basis of the Russia-gate prosecutions and the Left condemning Barr and Durham as partisan hacks motivated by allegiance to the Trump administration. With Durham releasing information about the scope of the conspiracy this may quickly turn into the most interesting story of the summer and fall.\u00a0 If the DOJ decides not to prosecute the conspirators but instead expose and embarrass them through publication of their dishonest actions it could have the effect of vindicating President Trump and vilifying Obama and his whole administration.\u00a0 And that would be very bad for a Biden candidacy.<\/li>\n<li>The Trump and Biden campaigns will spar ceaselessly over any and all issues. What you will hear endlessly is that Joe Biden is ahead by some number of points, between 5% and 10%.\u00a0 It\u2019ll never be explained how someone as universally disdained by even the Democrat voters as Biden could manage to remain perpetually popular and ahead but that is their story and they\u2019ll be sticking to it.<\/li>\n<li>Currently the Tara Reade story will be a lightning rod allowing the Republicans to brand anyone who condemned Justice Kavanaugh on the testimony of Christine Blasey Ford but disbelieves Reade about Biden as hypocrites. If Reade begins to gain traction with women voters, I think we\u2019ll finally see the Democrat party either convince Biden to step aside or begin the process of selecting an alternate candidate.\u00a0 And that will be a difficult process.\u00a0 Bernie Sanders will be bypassed again and that is bound to alienate his many staunch supporters.\u00a0 If Bernie is left waiting at the altar again the Bernie Bros will stay home in droves, or even worse, a bunch of them will vote for Trump.<\/li>\n<li>Nancy Pelosi has assembled a three trillion-dollar bill that would allow the bankrupt Blue States to stick the federal government with the cost of the public sector union pension funds. The Senate Leader Mitchell McConnell isn\u2019t interested in funding this.\u00a0 But President Trump may be interested in additional relief for small businesses that have been crushed by the long shutdown.\u00a0 He may try to broker a deal between the House and Senate.\u00a0 I know that the President also favors some kind of public works projects.\u00a0 This will be a large story in the fall.<\/li>\n<li>The China story will be a continuing saga for the Trump re-election campaign. The President has indicated that he holds China responsible for the outbreak and the subsequent damage to the American economy.\u00a0 It remains to be seen if this translates into a specific policy or policies.\u00a0 You could imagine some kind of incentive for American companies that relocate industrial capacity from China to the United States.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>As you can see these are interesting times but currently all of these issues will be moving forward in fits and starts.\u00a0 Right now, none of them has a blockbuster event occurring so there will be a lot of opinion stories producing a lot of smoke and heat but little light.\u00a0 I\u2019ll try to restrain myself from piping in on every little ripple in the pond.\u00a0 What I\u2019m hoping to see is something from Durham.\u00a0 As I\u2019ve said, I don\u2019t think we\u2019ll get anything too spectacular.\u00a0 But I would like to see something before summer.\u00a0 Failing that I\u2019d like to see the President formulate an economic rescue plan for small businesses that is more comprehensive and fairer than the halfway measures we\u2019ve seen so far.<\/p>\n<p>So, there\u2019s my update.\u00a0 Stay tuned for whatever is breaking next.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Looking around it looks like we\u2019ll be hearing about the same issues for the foreseeable future: The Blue and Red States will be touting their<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,818,6],"tags":[1799,2372,580,2464],"class_list":["post-10944","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-events","category-ocf","category-trump","tag-2020-election","tag-covid-19","tag-ocf-update","tag-tara-reade"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.4 - 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