So long COVID-19, hello domestic terrorist manhunt.\u00a0 The electorate is a complicated jigsaw puzzle of competing priorities.\u00a0 Race, ethnicity, age and sex factor into the calculations that parties and candidates have to make as to where to invest time and money trying to pick up votes and where not to bother.<\/p>\n
As I mentioned yesterday, I think Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey just threw Minnesota firmly into the Trump camp.\u00a0 Going beyond that I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if we pick up a House seat or two.\u00a0 I\u2019ll explain why I said that.\u00a0 President Trump has always had a difficult time garnering the votes of upper middle-class women.\u00a0 The women I mean are office workers and middle managers who have families but also have feminist friends at work who constantly harangue them on the evils of President Trump.\u00a0 And so even if they themselves are not man-hating harridans, they are sympathetic to the narrative of the evil patriarchy keeping down the virtuous and brilliant women of the world.<\/p>\n
Because of this the President\u2019s numbers have always been skewed toward men.\u00a0 It is true that in 2016 he did win the white-woman-vote.\u00a0 But in 2018 the republicans lost a number of seats because the white women\u2019s vote turned sharply against them.\u00a0 That was why so many women were in the 2020 Democrat Presidential field.\u00a0 And that is why someone as crazy as Elizabeth warren is still in the running for Democrat VP.\u00a0 Warrren is catnip to the angry woman\u2019s vote.\u00a0 I wouldn\u2019t have been surprised at all if Warren was selected, although all things considered I still consider it more likely that another woman, Kamala Harris, will be the pick.\u00a0 And that\u2019s because Kamala also ticks off that exciting African-American box that is also so important to the Democrat coalition.\u00a0 In this sense she\u2019s a twofer.<\/p>\n
And up until the COVID-19 debacle the Democrats had the added headache of an economy that was dropping African-American unemployment to all-time lows and boosting paychecks too.\u00a0 Despite the recent public cases of celebrity African-Americans embracing President Trump such as Kanye West there is no danger of that vote shifting decisively to him.\u00a0 But if there is no particular anger toward the President the danger for the Democrats is that the African American vote won\u2019t show up in large numbers at all.\u00a0 And that would more or less cook their goose.<\/p>\n
But now we have a new wrinkle.\u00a0 The rioting that Antifa has sparked after the death of George Floyd looks like it might cause the black vote to come out strongly for the Democrats.\u00a0 But what it also will most probably do is push the white-woman-vote to the Republicans.\u00a0 And the reason is quite simple.\u00a0 No matter how you feel about President Trump\u2019s relations with women if you\u2019re a woman who works in a city or suburb seeing the rioters burning, looting and beating the inhabitants of your local metropolis and promising on social networks that they\u2019re headed out to your suburb to finish the job you are probably plenty scared.\u00a0 And since this is all going on without your local Democrat Mayor or Governor stopping it, you\u2019re probably looking for a man who will.\u00a0 And guess who that is?\u00a0 That\u2019s right, America\u2019s most reviled patriarchal alpha male President Trump.\u00a0 And all of a sudden, his strutting and posturing doesn\u2019t seem like such a bad thing.\u00a0 When that loser Mayor Jacob Frey abandoned the local police precinct to the looters and the arsonist and the area devolved into bedlam President Trump said that if the Governor didn\u2019t bring in National Guard troops right away then he\u2019d have to do it instead.\u00a0 That probably sounds pretty reassuring to someone in St. Paul who hears that the rioters have crossed the river and will be in striking distance that night.\u00a0 So that\u2019s it in a nutshell.\u00a0 The race riots will probably throw the black vote to Biden but it almost surely will throw the white-woman (and hispanic-woman) -vote to President Trump.\u00a0 That\u2019s a trade the Democrats can\u2019t afford.<\/p>\n
Combine that with the some of the revelations that are probably going to come out of the Russia-gate investigations and the improvements in the unemployment numbers that should begin to unfold in the third quarter and it looks difficult for Creepy Uncle Joe to keep up.\u00a0 And one other thing should be interesting.\u00a0 What will come out of the Antifa investigation?\u00a0 Antifa is a guerilla organization that has been causing great harm but getting a free ride.\u00a0 If some of their members are linked directly to the violence in Minneapolis that will make them Public Enemy Number One.\u00a0 Antifa gets funding from Left-Wing sources such as George Soros.\u00a0 If any of these sources turn out to be friends of Joe Biden or even Obama that would truly cook their goose.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
So long COVID-19, hello domestic terrorist manhunt.\u00a0 The electorate is a complicated jigsaw puzzle of competing priorities.\u00a0 Race, ethnicity, age and sex factor into the<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,6],"tags":[1799,328,2513,16],"class_list":["post-11071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-events","category-trump","tag-2020-election","tag-antifa","tag-george-floyd","tag-trump"],"yoast_head":"\n