In corporate engineering one of the big buzzwords is risk management.\u00a0 We\u2019re supposed to evaluate all the possible risks and rate them according to probability and severity.\u00a0 This allows you to plan a remediation or prevention action for each possible risk.\u00a0 This allows us to kid ourselves into thinking we are in control of what will happen to us in the future.<\/p>\n
But in reality, there is always an X factor, the unknown unknown, the thing that we don\u2019t know that we don\u2019t know.\u00a0 And there is Murphy\u2019s Law that says that the worst thing possible always happens at the worst possible time.\u00a0 What that means is that when a system is already stressed the chances that something bad will become something terrible becomes almost inevitable.<\/p>\n
Regardless of ideology, both the Left and the Right will admit that when the United States was the sole superpower in the 1990s foreign policy was more predictable.\u00a0 No one messed with the big dog.\u00a0 Not the Russians, not the Chinese or any of the regional powers like Iran or India or Pakistan.\u00a0 Sure, they could pull some proxy mischief in Lebanon or Somalia or some other rat hole but nobody would go toe to toe with us back then.\u00a0 And that made it a lot easier for us to make policy.\u00a0 We moved carefully and slowly.\u00a0 But we could be sure that as long as we took it nice and easy and actually knew what would be the outcome of our actions that no one would gainsay it.\u00a0 The Europeans would gripe but accommodate us.\u00a0 The Arabs would threaten and then do nothing.\u00a0 The Russians and the Chinese would condemn and posture and then do nothing.\u00a0 And all the small countries would go to the United Nations and draft a resolution condemning us which we would veto when it got to the Security Council.<\/p>\n
But those days are long gone.\u00a0 Since then, we have frittered away our superpower status chasing Al Qaeda and ISIS psychopaths from Pakistan to Morocco.\u00a0 We disillusioned a generation of American warriors in the sands of Iraq and we have handed over our industrial wealth to the Chinese.\u00a0 Our military has become a political football to be kicked around over transgender and feminist talking points.\u00a0 And now witch hunts to uncover white supremacists in the rank and file has taken unit cohesion to an all-time low.\u00a0 No one thinks we are in charge anymore.<\/p>\n
Imagine if you can the chances that China, Vietnam, Japan, North and South Korea, Myanmar, Russia, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Libya will between themselves figure out an equitable arrangement that will satisfy them all.\u00a0 When we were calling the shots, we could make the bigger, stronger countries toe the line and only the rat holes were given a pass.\u00a0 The outlaws like North Korea or Iran were isolated commercially and socially.\u00a0 But now the Chinese are openly mocking us when we condemn their brutal tactics against the Uighurs.\u00a0 They only have to point to our cities burning during the BLM riots and both our weakness and moral confusion are self-documented.<\/p>\n
China is now openly pursuing its own interests everywhere from Equatorial Africa to Latin America and Russia is involved militarily and commercially in the Middle East in Iran, Turkey and Syria.\u00a0 Russia\u2019s saber rattling in the Ukraine and other parts of its former domain in Eastern Europe highlight that NATO isn\u2019t what it once was.\u00a0 And speaking of Europe, it is in upheaval.\u00a0 The madness that has infected the United States is just as virulent there.\u00a0 The EU is in total disarray and nationalist movements are springing up all over threatening the very existence of the EU.<\/p>\n
So, what\u2019s my point?\u00a0 Alright, when 9\/11\/2001 happened we were no longer the world military hegemon we had once been.\u00a0 We were already starting down the road of de-industrializing our country in favor of Chinese outsourcing but we still had a very, very potent military and we were still for the most part a unified country with a deep streak of patriotism.\u00a0 We could rally the whole country, Democrats and Republicans and put together a war effort that would up-end a country like Afghanistan in weeks.\u00a0 We could hammer a medium sized country like Iraq in a few weeks too.<\/p>\n
9\/11 was our last big surprise and we had the wherewithal to answer the challenge.\u00a0 But what about the next big surprise?<\/p>\n
What about now?\u00a0 If we were attacked by Iran or if the Taliban staged a major attack in Afghanistan would Americans come rallying around and enlist to do their part.\u00a0 I don\u2019t think they would.\u00a0 The feminized millennial males would just mumble something about Gaia under their breath and go back to drinking their soy lattes. \u00a0If Joe Biden got on tv and begged the Iraq and Afghanistan veterans to support him in a new emergency I think they\u2019d throw a lamp through the screen.\u00a0\u00a0 This government and the media have vilified the flag and the national anthem and the soldiers they stand for.\u00a0 They\u2019ve told us that what we stand for is racism and hate.\u00a0 Well, then let Joe Biden get Antifa and BLM to fight his wars.\u00a0 The rest of us should take a knee.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m not sure that the next big surprise will be a terrorist or military attack.\u00a0 It could be a fuel shortage or an agricultural blight or even another bio-attack.\u00a0 The point is there isn\u2019t any good will left in the country.\u00a0 Nobody will be rallying around anything.\u00a0 If the BLM riots get out of control and one of the big cities in the blue states burns down, I don\u2019t think any of the red staters will care in the least.\u00a0 They\u2019ll probably cheer.\u00a0 In fact, I\u2019m hoping Derek Chauvin is acquitted of all charges and Minneapolis is burned to the ground from end to end by the mostly peaceful Antifa and BLM thugs.\u00a0 I think it would be the best possible outcome.\u00a0 Minnesota would reap what they sowed.\u00a0 It would be what Obama was so fond of calling a teachable moment.<\/p>\n
When the next big surprise happens, it will end the illusion that this is one country.\u00a0 And that will be a very good thing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
In corporate engineering one of the big buzzwords is risk management.\u00a0 We\u2019re supposed to evaluate all the possible risks and rate them according to probability<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[1139,3000,2580],"class_list":["post-14126","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-events","tag-foreign-policy","tag-next-big-surprise","tag-two-americas"],"yoast_head":"\n