{"id":17808,"date":"2022-02-14T11:07:18","date_gmt":"2022-02-14T16:07:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/?p=17808"},"modified":"2022-02-14T11:07:35","modified_gmt":"2022-02-14T16:07:35","slug":"what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/","title":{"rendered":"What Do the Poll Numbers Tell Me?"},"content":{"rendered":"

For decades I\u2019ve noticed that political polls in the United States had a very noticeable bias.\u00a0 Depending on whether they were ridiculously partisan polls or just slightly biased they would skew more or less to the Left.\u00a0 They were able to produce this bias by overestimating the percentage of the population that is Democrat and underestimating the Republican share.\u00a0 And it was just assumed by me that we had to throw our own fudge factor in when trying to make sense of the actual political situation from these flawed measures.<\/p>\n

But look at Joe Biden\u2019s approval ratings on RCP now<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Polling Data<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Poll<\/strong><\/td>\nDate<\/strong><\/td>\nSample<\/strong><\/td>\nApprove<\/strong><\/td>\nDisapprove<\/strong><\/td>\nSpread<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RCP\u00a0Average<\/strong><\/td>\n1\/10 – 2\/13<\/strong><\/td>\n—<\/strong><\/td>\n40.6<\/strong><\/td>\n53.8<\/strong><\/td>\n-13.2<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rasmussen<\/td>\n2\/9 – 2\/13<\/td>\n1500 LV<\/td>\n42<\/td>\n57<\/td>\n-15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Reuters<\/td>\n2\/7 – 2\/8<\/td>\n1005 A<\/td>\n43<\/td>\n51<\/td>\n-8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
YouGov<\/td>\n2\/5 – 2\/8<\/td>\n1255 RV<\/td>\n41<\/td>\n51<\/td>\n-10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Susquehanna<\/td>\n2\/3 – 2\/9<\/td>\n800 LV<\/td>\n42<\/td>\n52<\/td>\n-10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Politico<\/td>\n2\/5 – 2\/6<\/td>\n2005 RV<\/td>\n41<\/td>\n55<\/td>\n-14<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IBD\/TIPP<\/td>\n2\/2 – 2\/4<\/td>\n1355 A<\/td>\n38<\/td>\n48<\/td>\n-10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CNN<\/td>\n1\/10 – 2\/6<\/td>\n1257 RV<\/td>\n42<\/td>\n57<\/td>\n-15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Monmouth<\/td>\n1\/20 – 1\/24<\/td>\n735 RV<\/td>\n38<\/td>\n55<\/td>\n-17<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Insider Advantage<\/td>\n1\/21 – 1\/23<\/td>\n850 LV<\/td>\n40<\/td>\n59<\/td>\n-19<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Harris<\/td>\n1\/19 – 1\/20<\/td>\n1815 RV<\/td>\n39<\/td>\n53<\/td>\n-14<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

These are horrible numbers.\u00a0 And they\u2019re close to accurate.\u00a0 Rasmussen is one of the few pollsters that doesn\u2019t favor Democrats.\u00a0 He\u2019s got Dementia Joe at 42 \u2013 57.\u00a0 CNN which is perpetually in the tank for the Dems has 42 \u2013 57.\u00a0 That\u2019s not an accident.\u00a0 Those are real numbers.\u00a0 And why are they doing this?\u00a0 Because Biden\u2019s numbers with Democrats are terrible too.\u00a0 Or in another way to look at it, a lot of the people who voted for Biden have switched parties.\u00a0 The proportion of voters who claim to be Democrats has shrunk.\u00a0 They\u2019ve shifted to the Republicans or at least to Independents.\u00a0 And they mean that they\u2019ll be voting for Republicans even though they don\u2019t want to be called Republicans because they\u2019re women and they don\u2019t want their friends to judge them harshly.<\/p>\n

All this tells me that the midterms are going to be very bad for the Dems.\u00a0 They will lose the House and the Senate.\u00a0 I think that\u2019s a given.\u00a0 Does it mean anything more?\u00a0 Only maybe.\u00a0 It\u2019s completely within the control of the Republicans to do what they typically do and blow this golden opportunity.\u00a0 They can use their control of the Congress to collect fees from the donors and lobbyists, as usual.\u00a0 They can ignore their duty and not thoroughly investigate and document for the American people the blatant and systematic voter fraud that happened in 2020.\u00a0 Or they can for once act like the leaders of a free people.<\/p>\n

Normally I\u2019d say the chance of them doing the right thing was zero.\u00a0 But things are significantly different this time.\u00a0 Donald Trump refuses to let sleeping dogs lie.\u00a0 He continues to rally the people to support efforts to investigate the 2020 election.\u00a0 He continues to call out the RINO\u2019s like Liz Cheney who support Democrat lies like the \u201cInsurrection.\u201d\u00a0 And some of the state leaders are making the right noises too.\u00a0 They are attempting to safeguard their election processes.<\/p>\n

Putting all this together I\u2019d say we\u2019re at about a fifty percent chance of something good coming out of the present situation.\u00a0 Admittedly that\u2019s not a glowing prospect but compared to how things have gone for most of my life, it\u2019s a reason to hope.<\/p>\n

The polls actually give us good information for the first time in decades.\u00a0 The people are pissed off.\u00a0 Now it will take the politicians to get their act together.\u00a0 Let\u2019s pray that some actual leaders will emerge and use the opportunity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

For decades I\u2019ve noticed that political polls in the United States had a very noticeable bias.\u00a0 Depending on whether they were ridiculously partisan polls or<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[3343,1326,3561,971,2927],"class_list":["post-17808","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-events","tag-2022-elections","tag-fake-polls","tag-political-reform","tag-politics","tag-uniparty"],"yoast_head":"\nWhat Do the Poll Numbers Tell Me? - Orion's Cold Fire<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What Do the Poll Numbers Tell Me? - Orion's Cold Fire\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"For decades I\u2019ve noticed that political polls in the United States had a very noticeable bias.\u00a0 Depending on whether they were ridiculously partisan polls or\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Orion's Cold Fire\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-02-14T16:07:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-02-14T16:07:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"photog\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@orionscoldfire\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@orionscoldfire\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"photog\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"photog\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d11e80f83f3825ce9fe38a5303eb64d3\"},\"headline\":\"What Do the Poll Numbers Tell Me?\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-02-14T16:07:18+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-02-14T16:07:35+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/\"},\"wordCount\":588,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"2022 elections\",\"fake polls\",\"Political Reform\",\"Politics\",\"Uniparty\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Current Events\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/\",\"name\":\"What Do the Poll Numbers Tell Me? - Orion's Cold Fire\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2022-02-14T16:07:18+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-02-14T16:07:35+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"What Do the Poll Numbers Tell Me?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/\",\"name\":\"Orion's Cold Fire\",\"description\":\"All the Secrets of the Universe and Some Really Important Stuff Too!\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Orion's Cold Fire\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/DSC06141.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/DSC06141.jpg\",\"width\":4022,\"height\":1419,\"caption\":\"Orion's Cold Fire\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/orionscoldfire\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d11e80f83f3825ce9fe38a5303eb64d3\",\"name\":\"photog\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/photog-image.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/photog-image.jpg\",\"caption\":\"photog\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/author\/photog\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"What Do the Poll Numbers Tell Me? - Orion's Cold Fire","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"What Do the Poll Numbers Tell Me? - Orion's Cold Fire","og_description":"For decades I\u2019ve noticed that political polls in the United States had a very noticeable bias.\u00a0 Depending on whether they were ridiculously partisan polls or","og_url":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/","og_site_name":"Orion's Cold Fire","article_published_time":"2022-02-14T16:07:18+00:00","article_modified_time":"2022-02-14T16:07:35+00:00","author":"photog","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@orionscoldfire","twitter_site":"@orionscoldfire","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"photog","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/"},"author":{"name":"photog","@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d11e80f83f3825ce9fe38a5303eb64d3"},"headline":"What Do the Poll Numbers Tell Me?","datePublished":"2022-02-14T16:07:18+00:00","dateModified":"2022-02-14T16:07:35+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/"},"wordCount":588,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["2022 elections","fake polls","Political Reform","Politics","Uniparty"],"articleSection":["Current Events"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/","url":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/","name":"What Do the Poll Numbers Tell Me? - Orion's Cold Fire","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2022-02-14T16:07:18+00:00","dateModified":"2022-02-14T16:07:35+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/14\/what-do-the-poll-numbers-tell-me\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"What Do the Poll Numbers Tell Me?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/","name":"Orion's Cold Fire","description":"All the Secrets of the Universe and Some Really Important Stuff Too!","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#organization","name":"Orion's Cold Fire","url":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/DSC06141.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/DSC06141.jpg","width":4022,"height":1419,"caption":"Orion's Cold Fire"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/twitter.com\/orionscoldfire"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d11e80f83f3825ce9fe38a5303eb64d3","name":"photog","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/photog-image.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/photog-image.jpg","caption":"photog"},"url":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/author\/photog\/"}]}},"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17808","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17808"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17808\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17810,"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17808\/revisions\/17810"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17808"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17808"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17808"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}