Predicting the future in a war is a fool\u2019s errand.\u00a0 So many things can happen to change the situation on the ground that even a few days of almost random occurrences can undermine the basis for a prediction.\u00a0 But general principles can be used to guess what is likely to happen if the difference in strength between the two sides is lopsided enough.\u00a0 So let me be foolish.<\/p>\n
My first assumption is that Biden won\u2019t risk military intervention.\u00a0 He won\u2019t declare a no-fly zone and he won\u2019t shelter an openly operating insurgent force in a NATO country.\u00a0 I think Biden is truly afraid of Putin.\u00a0 Even the embargo against Russian oil and gas is probably more risk than he\u2019s comfortable with.\u00a0 Bottom line, I don\u2019t think he\u2019ll step into the war because he believes that Putin would as a last resort use nuclear weapons if the West interferes on the Ukraine battlefield.<\/p>\n
The Russians have fought several wars in the last thirty years.\u00a0 Some larger, some smaller.\u00a0 The most difficult one was the Chechen insurgency.\u00a0\u00a0 Initially when the Russians attempted to occupy Chechnya the Chechens fought a brutal guerilla war that the Russians basically lost.\u00a0 But in the second phase of the war the Russians figured out how to deal with guerilla fighters.\u00a0 They surrounded them and then reduced the cities to rubble without engaging.\u00a0 This limited the Russian casualties but increased Chechen civilian casualties.\u00a0 I think that\u2019s what they intend to do with the Ukrainian militias.\u00a0 They\u2019ll empty the cities of anyone who wants to get out and then starve the fighters out or blast them out.\u00a0 This will tear the Ukraine to pieces and make it more likely that the Ukraine government will surrender.\u00a0 But it\u2019s not just the government that counts. Even if the Ukraine government surrenders guerilla fighters could extend the war indefinitely.<\/p>\n
I guess the biggest unknown is just how committed the militia fighters are.\u00a0 The Chechens were fearless and full of hate.\u00a0 We\u2019re about to find out what these Ukrainian militiamen are all about.\u00a0 If they\u2019re like the Chechens this thing won\u2019t be over for years.\u00a0 And that may exhaust the Russians ability to sustain the war while the West maintains sanctions and provides material aid.\u00a0 If that happens Putin may decide to do something drastic and that could be disastrous for everyone including us.<\/p>\n
But if the militias aren\u2019t prepared to fight for every square inch of ground, then this thing will be over in a matter of months.\u00a0 The Russians will be methodical and brutal.\u00a0 They\u2019ll reduce the cities to rubble and reclaim the country piece by piece until the militias have to surrender. \u00a0Putin has decided what he wants done and he will go about it in a determined fashion.\u00a0 When the Ukrainian government surrenders, Putin will tie them up in a peace treaty to keep the West at arm\u2019s length.<\/p>\n
So that\u2019s my read.\u00a0 The only variable that matters at all is the fire in the rebels.\u00a0 If they\u2019re willing to fight to the death, they can hold up the war long enough to exhaust the Russians\u2019 patience and resources.\u00a0 If not, then the Russians will win.\u00a0 It\u2019s as simple as that.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Predicting the future in a war is a fool\u2019s errand.\u00a0 So many things can happen to change the situation on the ground that even a<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[3107,3568,1262,581],"class_list":["post-18116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-events","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-vladimir-putin","tag-war"],"yoast_head":"\n