{"id":20462,"date":"2022-09-21T22:00:36","date_gmt":"2022-09-22T02:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/?p=20462"},"modified":"2022-09-21T22:00:36","modified_gmt":"2022-09-22T02:00:36","slug":"democrat-pundit-starts-to-come-back-to-reality-on-mid-terms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/21\/democrat-pundit-starts-to-come-back-to-reality-on-mid-terms\/","title":{"rendered":"Democrat Pundit Starts to Come Back to Reality on Mid-Terms"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ed Kilgore has re-evaluated the chances of Democrats dodging the Mid-Term curse and he’s not very hopeful<\/a>.\u00a0 What I found interesting was the discussion about the polls<\/p>\n

“If you consider the polls from the outlets that were most accurate in 2020, the mixed prospects for the GOP look even better. Of the pollsters doing abundant 2022 public-survey work, Trafalgar Group was the most accurate in 2020 per FiveThirtyEight. Yes, Trafalgar has a well-deserved reputation for serving up results that please Republicans. But what if they are as right this year as they were two years ago? They show a lot of the GOP candidates already written off by most analysts as being still viable. Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters? Down by just two points, according to Trafalgar Group. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania? Ditto. The wildly extremist Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastrioni? Him too. All three of these alleged \u201closers\u201d are within the margin of error in Trafalgar Group polls, which also show half-forgotten Minnesota Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott Jensen within three points of incumbent Tim Walz, left-for-dead Michigan Republican gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon within four points of incumbent Gretchen Whitmer, and little-discussed Colorado Republican Senate candidate Joe O\u2019Dea within five points of incumbent Michael Bennett.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Oh \u2026 and Trafalgar Group also shows Republicans with a six-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot.”<\/strong><\/p>\n

And as far as the importance of abortion as an election issue this statement was very telling:<\/p>\n

“A September 2022 NBC News poll bluntly asked voters whether a candidate\u2019s position on \u201cdealing with the cost of living\u201d or on \u201cthe abortion issue\u201d would most affect their choice. \u201cCost of living\u201d was deemed more important by a 59-37 margin. And in rankings of the most important issue, NBC found that crime barely trails abortion as a voter concern (both ranking well below \u201cjobs and the economy\u201d and \u201ccost of living\u201d). The poll gave Republicans a 23-point advantage on crime and a 19-point advantage on the economy. Democrats do have a 22-point advantage on abortion policy, but it\u2019s all in the mix.”<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mr. Kilgore tried to leave some room for optimism but you could tell his heart wasn’t in it.\u00a0 So unless the voter fraud is industrial strength as it was in 2020 it looks like the Congress may flip to the republicans in November.<\/p>\n

Well, we’ll see.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ed Kilgore has re-evaluated the chances of Democrats dodging the Mid-Term curse and he’s not very hopeful.\u00a0 What I found interesting was the discussion about<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[3343],"class_list":["post-20462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-events","tag-2022-elections"],"yoast_head":"\nDemocrat Pundit Starts to Come Back to Reality on Mid-Terms - Orion's Cold Fire<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/21\/democrat-pundit-starts-to-come-back-to-reality-on-mid-terms\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Democrat Pundit Starts to Come Back to Reality on Mid-Terms - 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