I have a feeling that the upcoming US elections are having an effect on both sides of the Ukraine war.\u00a0 It seems that the Americans are trying to provoke the Russians into a very violent reaction before the Mid-Terms in order to change the focus of the American electorate away from the economy and other domestic problems and onto the Russians.\u00a0 And unless I\u2019m mistaken, I think the Russians are doing everything they can to resist this provocation for the same reason.<\/p>\n
I think the Russians are savvy enough about previous \u201cwag the dog\u201d incidents to recognize what\u2019s going on.\u00a0 And whereas they cannot completely ignore things like the Nord Stream sabotage or the attack on the Crimean bridge it strikes me that they are being surprisingly subdued in their responses to these provocations.\u00a0 And I think that\u2019s smart.\u00a0 Once the election is over Biden is stuck with the result and I don\u2019t think he\u2019ll be as sanguine about the Ukraine war.\u00a0 A month from now it\u2019s going to start getting much colder in Europe and the lack of affordable fuel is going to become a big deal.<\/p>\n
If my theory is correct as soon as the elections are over the Russians are going to take the gloves off and pummel the Ukrainian infrastructure and cause havoc.\u00a0 Attacks on electrical generation and transmission equipment and other utilities will begin showing the Ukrainians that war against a powerful neighbor is an unpleasant reality.\u00a0 Spending a winter without heat, lights and running water is a pretty miserable existence.\u00a0 In addition, the Russians have not staged a major artillery strike on Kiev since June.\u00a0 If the capitol city becomes a major target for attacks, it will have a major impact on Ukrainian public opinion about continuing the war.\u00a0 It might even turn the people against Zelensky.<\/p>\n
And then there is the United States.\u00a0 With OPEC decreasing output by two million barrels a day of oil the cost of fuel will be more than just an annoyance.\u00a0 It will be a drain on household budgets that will leave families struggling to get by.\u00a0 This will worsen the economy that is already in terrible shape.\u00a0 And when the recession starts adding millions of Americans to the unemployment lines, they\u2019re not going to care about helping the Ukraine war.\u00a0 They\u2019re going to be angry and scared.\u00a0 And that should be about the time that Washington will tell Zelensky to start talking to the Russians about peace.<\/p>\n
I could be all wrong about the Russian restraint being about our Mid-Terms but I seriously doubt it.\u00a0 I think this whole war is a manufactured product of the CIA and the State Department.\u00a0 And there is an atmosphere that pervades the whole operation that smells like a catastrophe about to blow up in their faces.\u00a0 They\u2019ve upped the ante every time things have gone wrong and it seems like we\u2019re nearing a breaking point. \u00a0Assuming they don\u2019t intend to lob a nuke on their own I think they may have overestimated their ability to stampede the Russians into some horrendous over reaction.\u00a0 The pipeline and bridge sabotage are the latest provocations but the Russians seem to be maintaining a proportional response to each of these attacks.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s only a month to go but that\u2019s plenty of time for me to be shown I\u2019m wrong or for the Biden team to go over the top on their activities.\u00a0 For everyone\u2019s sake I hope they don\u2019t get the reaction they\u2019re looking for.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
I have a feeling that the upcoming US elections are having an effect on both sides of the Ukraine war.\u00a0 It seems that the Americans<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3343,3568],"class_list":["post-20693","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-2022-elections","tag-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"\n