{"id":20732,"date":"2022-10-13T16:45:33","date_gmt":"2022-10-13T20:45:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/?p=20732"},"modified":"2022-10-13T16:45:33","modified_gmt":"2022-10-13T20:45:33","slug":"someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/","title":{"rendered":"Someone Is Going to Handicap the Pollsters"},"content":{"rendered":"

Real Clear Politics (RCP) provides an average of the various polls for all the elections going on.\u00a0 The idea is that the average of a bunch of polls will be more accurate than any particular poll.\u00a0 But if most of them are biased then that will hardly produce an accurate estimate.<\/p>\n

But they’ve just announced that they are going to use this present election (and past ones) to assign correction factors for the various pollsters going forward<\/a>.\u00a0 In other words if the YouGov poll is always 3 points too high for the Democrat candidate then going forward RCP will apply a -3 point correction on their polls.<\/p>\n

It’s actually a really good idea.\u00a0 With a really large database of historical data I could see how a statistician could develop a model that provides a much better estimate for how people will vote.\u00a0 I’m looking forward to this.\u00a0 I suspect once these pollsters start getting rated on accuracy the worst offenders will start squealing like stuck pigs.\u00a0 But over time it will boost the honest pollsters and who knows it might convince some of the worst offenders to mediate their lies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Real Clear Politics (RCP) provides an average of the various polls for all the elections going on.\u00a0 The idea is that the average of a<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[3343,1326,3763],"class_list":["post-20732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-events","tag-2022-elections","tag-fake-polls","tag-real-clear-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nSomeone Is Going to Handicap the Pollsters - Orion's Cold Fire<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Someone Is Going to Handicap the Pollsters - Orion's Cold Fire\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Real Clear Politics (RCP) provides an average of the various polls for all the elections going on.\u00a0 The idea is that the average of a\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Orion's Cold Fire\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-10-13T20:45:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"photog\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@orionscoldfire\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@orionscoldfire\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"photog\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"photog\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d11e80f83f3825ce9fe38a5303eb64d3\"},\"headline\":\"Someone Is Going to Handicap the Pollsters\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-10-13T20:45:33+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-10-13T20:45:33+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/\"},\"wordCount\":199,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"2022 elections\",\"fake polls\",\"Real Clear Politics\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Current Events\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/\",\"name\":\"Someone Is Going to Handicap the Pollsters - Orion's Cold Fire\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2022-10-13T20:45:33+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-10-13T20:45:33+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Someone Is Going to Handicap the Pollsters\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/\",\"name\":\"Orion's Cold Fire\",\"description\":\"All the Secrets of the Universe and Some Really Important Stuff Too!\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Orion's Cold Fire\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/DSC06141.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/DSC06141.jpg\",\"width\":4022,\"height\":1419,\"caption\":\"Orion's Cold Fire\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/orionscoldfire\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d11e80f83f3825ce9fe38a5303eb64d3\",\"name\":\"photog\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/photog-image.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/photog-image.jpg\",\"caption\":\"photog\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/author\/photog\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Someone Is Going to Handicap the Pollsters - Orion's Cold Fire","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Someone Is Going to Handicap the Pollsters - Orion's Cold Fire","og_description":"Real Clear Politics (RCP) provides an average of the various polls for all the elections going on.\u00a0 The idea is that the average of a","og_url":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/","og_site_name":"Orion's Cold Fire","article_published_time":"2022-10-13T20:45:33+00:00","author":"photog","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@orionscoldfire","twitter_site":"@orionscoldfire","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"photog","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/"},"author":{"name":"photog","@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d11e80f83f3825ce9fe38a5303eb64d3"},"headline":"Someone Is Going to Handicap the Pollsters","datePublished":"2022-10-13T20:45:33+00:00","dateModified":"2022-10-13T20:45:33+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/"},"wordCount":199,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["2022 elections","fake polls","Real Clear Politics"],"articleSection":["Current Events"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/","url":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/","name":"Someone Is Going to Handicap the Pollsters - Orion's Cold Fire","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2022-10-13T20:45:33+00:00","dateModified":"2022-10-13T20:45:33+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/someone-is-going-to-handicap-the-pollsters\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Someone Is Going to Handicap the Pollsters"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/","name":"Orion's Cold Fire","description":"All the Secrets of the Universe and Some Really Important Stuff Too!","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#organization","name":"Orion's Cold Fire","url":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/DSC06141.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/DSC06141.jpg","width":4022,"height":1419,"caption":"Orion's Cold Fire"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/twitter.com\/orionscoldfire"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d11e80f83f3825ce9fe38a5303eb64d3","name":"photog","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/photog-image.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/photog-image.jpg","caption":"photog"},"url":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/author\/photog\/"}]}},"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20732"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20732\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20733,"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20732\/revisions\/20733"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}