I was doing a thought experiment on what the future of the blue states and in particular the blue cities would look like.\u00a0 Until recently I assumed that once the Democrats were securely in charge of Washington DC that they\u2019d finally rein in the mayhem and begin to reassert law and order in the cities like New York and Chicago that they rule over.<\/p>\n
But I was completely wrong about that.\u00a0 The recent mayoral election in Chicago and the prosecution for manslaughter of the Marine who attempted to stop an unhinged homeless man from assaulting old women on a New York City subway car illustrate the stabilization of the new normal in these places.\u00a0 Soros funded prosecutors in both cities allow black criminals to escape without indictment for charges that have included murder.\u00a0 While self-defense has now been criminalized in the case where the defendant is white.<\/p>\n
If we extrapolate these practices going on indefinitely and try to predict the outcome for these places, I feel we can make some assumptions.<\/p>\n
First off, it doesn\u2019t take much imagination to figure out that relatively soon anyone with a family will decide to leave these cities.\u00a0 And this won\u2019t just include upper- and middle-class white families.\u00a0 Basically, anyone who has the wherewithal will be trying to find a refuge away from the multitude of problems that these cities pose for children.\u00a0 After all violence is only the worst of the problems.\u00a0 Other major issues are the abysmal school systems, crumbling infrastructure, disappearing retail stores, endemic crime, skyrocketing taxes, fear of real estate price collapse and disappearing job market.<\/p>\n
So, the cities will lose the majority of their middle-class residents.\u00a0 And with the recent flight to remote workers, many of the biggest corporations are moving their headquarters and other locations out of the cities.\u00a0 I think the template for what this will create is Detroit.\u00a0 This was a major American city that allowed crime to destroy the wealth and importance it once had.<\/p>\n
Detroit had an entrenched monopoly on one of the largest industrial sectors of the United States economy, the automobile manufacturing industry.\u00a0 But by allowing crime to destabilize the environment it imploded.\u00a0 It went from a population in 1950 of 1,850,000 to less than 650,000 today.\u00a0 That\u2019s a loss of 65% of its population.\u00a0 And currently the city is a shambles with crumbling infrastructure and wide areas abandoned to such an extent that woods have grown up swallowing streets and houses in their path.\u00a0 More than half the residents do not pay their real estate taxes and the city\u2019s finances and politics are reminiscent of a third world country.\u00a0 And horrendous crime rates have never been brought under control.<\/p>\n
Now imagine this situation spreading to most of the large American cities.\u00a0 Just think if every large metropolitan area from Washington DC to Boston becomes like Detroit.\u00a0 It\u2019s really not so hard to imagine.\u00a0 DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Camden, Newark and a few other major population centers are already halfway along to Detroit status.\u00a0 It won\u2019t take much more ruin to finish them off.\u00a0 And when New York city really hits the skids that will be one hell of a corpse.<\/p>\n
And that is basically what the George Floyd revolution has brought.\u00a0 In the same way that the civil rights riots of the 1960s killed Detroit so will the 2020 riots finish off the rest of these cities.\u00a0 The next question is what happens to the areas outside of the cities?\u00a0 Currently the Biden administration is continuing the Obama policy of moving the inner city poor out into the suburbs.\u00a0 In effect they\u2019re attempting to metastasize the inner-city cancer to the rest of the country.\u00a0 And now with the immigrant invasion they\u2019d like to supercharge the problem.<\/p>\n
But I think there is a limit to this process and possibly the red state governments will take some steps to limit the damage.\u00a0 I\u2019ll take an optimistic stance on how this will play out.\u00a0 I will speculate that as the decay of the cities proceeds the red states will take charge of these failed cities and strip them of self-governance and attempt to rehabilitate them.\u00a0 How I see that happening is the idea that these corrupt failed city governments will be guilty of civil rights violations by not providing competent criminal justice services such as impartial police and courts.\u00a0 In addition, by forcing the inhabitants to work for their relief checks they can limit their free time and the amount of criminal activity they get into.<\/p>\n
Basically, these cities will be turned into detention centers to quarantine them from rest of the state.\u00a0 School and work opportunities could be organized by the state government with the prospect of weaning the inhabitants from this dysfunctional existence and hopefully one day restoring these areas to a more normal existence.\u00a0 But it will probably take a century to make that happen.<\/p>\n
In the meantime, these areas will continue under competent law enforcement and the chaotic and violent existence that we are now seeing played out in the various blue cities won\u2019t become the rule in the red states.<\/p>\n
Now I don\u2019t kid myself that this will happen easily.\u00a0 Red state cities like St Louis and Houston will need to be tamed and brought back to law and order.\u00a0 That will only happen when these states decide that lawlessness won\u2019t be allowed to destroy the urban centers inside their boundaries.<\/p>\n
And I don\u2019t doubt that this will be complicated when the federal government attempts to stop this process of fixing these cities.\u00a0 They have intentionally exacerbated these problems.\u00a0 They won\u2019t easily allow their sabotage to be undone.<\/p>\n
But as I said I\u2019m choosing the optimistic path for this essay.\u00a0 It\u2019s also possible that the red states will fail to solve this problem.\u00a0 Then that leads to a different model, Brazil.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
I was doing a thought experiment on what the future of the blue states and in particular the blue cities would look like.\u00a0 Until recently<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[3313,3457,2513],"class_list":["post-23793","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-events","tag-black-crime","tag-crime-in-blue-cities-and-states","tag-george-floyd"],"yoast_head":"\n