{"id":24397,"date":"2023-06-22T19:42:21","date_gmt":"2023-06-22T23:42:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/?p=24397"},"modified":"2023-06-22T19:42:21","modified_gmt":"2023-06-22T23:42:21","slug":"22jun2023-update-on-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/22\/22jun2023-update-on-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"22JUN2023 &#8211; Update on Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Information on the Ukraine War is both ubiquitous and dubious.\u00a0 Probably the best policy is to wait until information from both Russian and Ukrainian sources intersect.\u00a0 Well, I couldn&#8217;t get that yet but at least both sides agree that the Ukrainians are finding the Russian defenses daunting.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/simplicius76.substack.com\/p\/sitrep-62123-russia-re-orients-to\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>But as for Putin\u2019s video, the amount of losses he quotes are interesting: ~250 tanks and almost 700 other armor\/vehicles. I outlined recently how even at the highest Western estimates, Ukraine is said to have 600-800 total tanks remaining (as per Pentagon leaks, etc.). If Putin\u2019s numbers are even remotely true, it would mean the Not-Offensive has potentially wiped out upwards of 30-45% of Ukraine\u2019s remaining heavy armor which would put them in dire straits. Recall, that even remaining armor is misleading as much of it is older tanks with 105mm or 115mm cannons that are no match for Russian MBTs, and the majority of remaining 125mm\u2019ers are likely T-64s, which likewise is not promising<\/strong><\/a>.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>So that&#8217;s by a Russian partisan.\u00a0 Now here is an article from the Institute for the Study of War, neo-con think-tank.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.understandingwar.org\/backgrounder\/ukraine-conflict-updates\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that the progress of Ukrainian counteroffensives has been slower than expected, likely due to effective Russian defenses.\u00a0<\/strong>Zelensky stated that Ukrainian counteroffensive progress has been \u201cslower than desired\u201d and will take time.[6]\u00a0Zelensky noted that Ukrainian advances are not easy because Russian forces have mined 200,000 square kilometers of frontline territory.[7]\u00a0Russian President Vladimir Putin also addressed ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives and preposterously claimed that Russian forces have destroyed 244 tanks and 679 armored vehicles since these operations began on June 4.[8]\u00a0Russian forces\u2019 doctrinally sound defense in western Zaporizhia Oblast and prepared defensive positions throughout southern Ukraine are likely slowing Ukrainian advances, as ISW has previously assessed.[9]\u00a0A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian defensive positions in southern Ukraine, dubbed the \u201cSurovikin Line\u201d after former overall theater commander Army General Sergei Surovikin, consist of several defensive zones between lines along dominant elevated positions up to 30km into Russian held territory.[10]\u00a0The milblogger claimed that the \u201cSurovikin Line\u201d consists of a forward line of defense with several dozen platoon and company strongholds, and a main defensive line roughly 25km back with minefields, anti-tank ditches, and other defensive structures in between, though the extent of these defenses along the entire front line is unclear.[11]\u00a0These Russian defensive lines are likely arrayed to enable a first echelon of Russian forces, deployed to the forward defensive line, to slow advancing Ukrainian forces while a second echelon of forces deployed closer to the main defensive line launch counterattacks against any Ukrainian breakthroughs, as well as providing prepared fallback positions for frontline Russian units.[12]\u00a0Localized Ukrainian territorial gains are unlikely to immediately disrupt these Russian defensive lines and localized Ukrainian attempts at rapid breakthroughs are less likely to degrade these lines than a wider concerted operational effort, one which may be focused on degrading Russian defenders and fixing reserves rather than the immediate liberation of territory<\/a>.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Notice this article scoffs at the Russian numbers of Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles destroyed, but agrees that the offensive has been &#8220;slower than desired.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>But what were they expecting?\u00a0 Driving tanks across heavily mined fields into flat steppe-land where hand-held anti-tank weapons and aircraft missiles are waiting for them doesn&#8217;t sound like a cake walk to me.\u00a0 And that&#8217;s before they get within twenty miles of the reinforced entrenchment lines and anti-tank emplacements.<\/p>\n<p>I can&#8217;t make up my mind whether the Ukrainians will commit to the full offensive or not.\u00a0 Without air superiority or overwhelming numerical advantage what they are attempting is very likely to cost them tens of thousands of casualties and still come up short of their objective.\u00a0\u00a0If they lose forty or fifty thousand men and don&#8217;t even reach the coast it will be a disaster of enormous magnitude.\u00a0 That will probably cost them the war.<\/p>\n<p>I suspect they will continue on with the probing attacks for a month or two more and then declare victory somehow or other.\u00a0 Maybe they capture a few towns or smaller cities and wait for the F-16&#8217;s to save the day.\u00a0 But I&#8217;m not sure.<\/p>\n<p>The Ukrainians have fought very bravely but modern war is very tough on the underdog.\u00a0 The Russians have a big advantage in population size, quantity of artillery and aerial offense and defense.\u00a0 They are waging a war of attrition where they stand back and bombard the Ukrainians from a distance.\u00a0 It&#8217;s slow and wasteful of munitions but it conserves lives.<\/p>\n<p>Lately even Washington insiders are starting to talk about the necessity of negotiations with the Russians.\u00a0 And the terms they mention are more or less what the Russians proposed in Turkey.\u00a0 But I don&#8217;t think they&#8217;re likely to agree to those terms any longer.\u00a0 They&#8217;ve been forced to put their country on a war footing and and it&#8217;s unlikely they&#8217;ll be satisfied until they obtain most of what they currently want.\u00a0 They want the four regions they&#8217;ve officially annexed, they probably want further territorial gains that include Odessa and the rest of Black Sea coastline.\u00a0 They may also demand a buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine to avoid guerilla warfare after the war.\u00a0 And they want Ukraine disarmed and neutral.<\/p>\n<p>So this may be a long war because it may be a very slow one.\u00a0 If the Ukrainians hold off on their big offensive then the Russian counter-offensive will be more of what we saw in Bakhmut; a long slow war of attrition that pounds the Ukrainians down inch by slow inch.\u00a0 In other words, hell on earth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Information on the Ukraine War is both ubiquitous and dubious.\u00a0 Probably the best policy is to wait until information from both Russian and Ukrainian sources<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[3942],"class_list":["post-24397","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-events","tag-ukraine-war"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>22JUN2023 - Update on Ukraine - Orion&#039;s Cold Fire<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/22\/22jun2023-update-on-ukraine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" 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