Over the last decade or so Peter Thiel has made a point of claiming that other than computer automation, technological progress has been at a standstill.\u00a0 And he\u2019s essentially correct.\u00a0 From about 1900 to 1960 we went from horse power to nuclear power.<\/p>\n
From 1960 to 2020 we went from nuclear power to wind power.\u00a0 This is not technological progress.\u00a0 It\u2019s surrender.<\/p>\n
And this is mostly a psychological problem we\u2019re facing.\u00a0 We haven\u2019t hit any quantum barrier that forbids us from improving almost every aspect of our technology.\u00a0 Even the make-believe problems we create have solutions that are neglected by the dim-witted \u201ctechnologists\u201d that preside over our decline.\u00a0 A good example is the farce called recycling.\u00a0 Currently we are all forced to dutifully separate \u201crecyclables\u201d in a separate pail from the rest of our trash as if this was a magical process that allowed these paper and plastic waste products to somehow become usable materials.<\/p>\n
But in reality, the majority of this material is landfilled along with the non-recyclable garbage that we collect in the other pail.\u00a0 And the reason is simple.\u00a0 Crude oil is a cheaper and better raw material for making plastic than plastic scrap.\u00a0 Maybe in the far future when petroleum runs out, our landfills will become plastic mines that we\u2019ll tap for a feed stream in our manufacturing process.<\/p>\n
Of course, another thing it\u2019s good for is as fuel.\u00a0 Paper and plastic are mostly hydrogen and carbon and as such they make incredibly good combustion fuels.\u00a0 Buring these materials in a garbage incinerator associated with a turbine generator would be the most efficient use of these waste materials.\u00a0 But, you know, Gaia.<\/p>\n
But let\u2019s assume that at some point in the next twenty years, first world people are going to get tired of being forced into third world squalor.\u00a0 At that point I\u2019m guessing that the first direction selected for energy production will be nuclear fission steam turbine generation plants.\u00a0 Sure, maybe they\u2019ll have to pay lip service to global warming pieties.\u00a0 Maybe they\u2019ll even build solar powered carbon sequestration projects to please Gaia.\u00a0 But at some point, people will demand to have the amenities they\u2019ve become accustomed to; reliable electrical distribution and convenient transportation.\u00a0 In the long run what the source of that power will be is yet to be determined.\u00a0 My theory is that geothermal energy will supplement and maybe replace nuclear in the long run.<\/p>\n
One thing I\u2019m not sure of is what will be the fuel for transportation.\u00a0 Many people have said that hydrogen is too hazardous.\u00a0 Maybe they\u2019re right.\u00a0 It does tend to go boom when trapped in an enclosure.\u00a0 Well, it\u2019s cheaper and easier to make than octane but with unlimited electrical energy from something like widespread nuclear or geothermal I don\u2019t see a problem with an octane synthesizing plant.\u00a0 Carbon dioxide and water are available in endless supply so all that\u2019s needed is cheap power.\u00a0 And there\u2019s a lot to be said for a really well-built internal combustion engine car.<\/p>\n
But this is all just getting back to where we were in 1960.\u00a0 What will real technological progress look like?\u00a0 Ironically, I think that there will be an emphasis on Gaia!<\/p>\n
I think quality of life innovation will be the future.\u00a0 Research into the detrimental effects of all the chemicals that we add to our foods and come in contact with our bodies will begin shaping the products our industries produce.<\/p>\n
And likewise with containers.\u00a0 Maybe bottles will start being made of glass and metal again.\u00a0 Some of the older materials were safer and newer alloys and other materials can be tested and whatever the healthiest choices can be substituted for things that may be harming us.<\/p>\n
So better living through chemistry may become something more than just an empty slogan.<\/p>\n
With all the talk of AI I\u2019d be remiss if I didn\u2019t mention the progress, we can expect from the ongoing computer automation revolution.\u00a0 Eventually all automobiles will be subject to traffic control in densely crowded traffic.\u00a0 Despite our strongest resistance, this will happen in many jurisdictions.\u00a0 The nanny-state is just too strong in places like California and New York.\u00a0 For many people this will be welcomed.\u00a0 It will relieve them of the responsibility of driving.<\/p>\n
Artificial intelligence will eventually make large scale industrial economic planning much more efficient.\u00a0 Supply chain coordination for a whole network of companies producing a multitude of products will be optimized and trends and changes tracked and compensated for.\u00a0 How this will effect capitalism remains to be seen.<\/p>\n
Maybe the greatest use of AI will be in bioresearch and medicine.\u00a0 The enormous complexity of living systems and the almost infinite number of chemicals that need to be tested for toxic and other detrimental effects cries out for the brute force that artificial intelligence can bring to bear on bioresearch and development.\u00a0 I can see a future where the oncologist is a computer that scans the DNA of a cancer cell and chooses a custom antibody coded precisely to attach to and kill only the cancer cells and nothing else.<\/p>\n
And the final area of progress is a sentimental one for me and one I\u2019ll never see.\u00a0 Mankind should send an unmanned probe to Proxima Centauri.\u00a0 I guess HAL 9000 will be in charge of this mission.\u00a0 It will require an enormous tank of water that will be used as rocket mass.\u00a0 A fission reactor will be used to boil the water as a jet to provide acceleration.\u00a0 Maybe it can get up to .3c and so the round trip will be something less than a century.\u00a0 It can take readings and photos and see if there are any little green men there and come back and let us know.\u00a0 Now that\u2019s progress.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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