{"id":32671,"date":"2025-03-23T09:39:45","date_gmt":"2025-03-23T13:39:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/?p=32671"},"modified":"2025-03-23T09:39:45","modified_gmt":"2025-03-23T13:39:45","slug":"the-green-energy-transition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/23\/the-green-energy-transition\/","title":{"rendered":"The Green Energy “Transition”"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here’s an excellent article that takes an objective approach to energy policy<\/a>.\u00a0 It looks at energy sources as an historical phenomenon.\u00a0 One of my favorite quotes is, “We find a useful referee in this war of words with the recently released\u00a0Eye on the Market 15th Annual Energy Paper<\/a>\u00a0by Michael Cembalest, J. P. Morgan\u2019s chairman of market and investment strategy. As this 70-slide, deep-dive report pointedly notes, \u201cafter\u00a0$9 trillion<\/em>\u00a0globally over the last decade spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, electrified heat and power grids, the\u00a0renewable transition<\/em>\u00a0is still a linear one; the renewable share of final energy consumption is\u00a0slowly advancing<\/em> at 0.3%\u20130.6% per year [emphasis added].\u201d One does not need a mathematics degree to understand that such anemic growth rates are not the hallmarks of an \u201cunstoppable\u201d juggernaut. Hence, Cembalest\u2019s bottom line: \u201cGrowth in fossil fuel consumption is slowing but no clear sign of a peak on a global basis.\u201d That is to say, no \u201cenergy transition\u201d is in sight.<\/strong>”<\/p>\n

I like a business analyst that has a rye sense of humor; “an unstoppable juggernaut.”\u00a0 The Germans being the hyper-obedient victims of their past behavior have gone down the green road with both feet.\u00a0 They shut down their nuclear power plants and without Russian gas their economy has been crushed.\u00a0 They don’t have enough heating energy for their homes and they can’t run their heavy industries like auto manufacturing and chemical synthesis without fossil fuels.\u00a0 I wonder if they were smart enough to leave the nuke plants intact just in case they came to their senses.\u00a0 Nah, they’re too smart to have left themselves a emergency exit.\u00a0 I’ll bet they knocked them down.<\/p>\n

The gist of the essay is that there’s never a transition from one energy source to the next.\u00a0 The old one keeps on at the same lever or even increases.\u00a0 Eventually an even more productive successor just step changes itself into prominence.\u00a0 Human muscle didn’t disappear when animals were domesticated.\u00a0 Wind power didn’t eliminate oxen.\u00a0 Neither did steam.\u00a0 And steam still powers many applications even though fossil fuels became predominant.\u00a0 And one day oil and gas will be overshadowed by nuclear or geothermal or whatever larger source is engineered.\u00a0 We want more power not less.\u00a0 That’s the lesson.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here’s an excellent article that takes an objective approach to energy policy.\u00a0 It looks at energy sources as an historical phenomenon.\u00a0 One of my favorite<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,712,3545],"tags":[3370,2108,4832],"class_list":["post-32671","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-events","category-fake-science","category-science","tag-energy-policy","tag-green-new-deal","tag-hydrocarbons"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Green Energy "Transition" - Orion's Cold Fire<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/23\/the-green-energy-transition\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Green Energy "Transition" - 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