{"id":4120,"date":"2018-08-31T12:47:46","date_gmt":"2018-08-31T16:47:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/?p=4120"},"modified":"2018-08-31T12:47:46","modified_gmt":"2018-08-31T16:47:46","slug":"my-labor-day-weekend-prognostications","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/31\/my-labor-day-weekend-prognostications\/","title":{"rendered":"My Labor Day Weekend Prognostications"},"content":{"rendered":"

Several months back President Trump stated that Mueller\u2019s investigation must end before September in order to avoid interfering with the midterms.\u00a0 Well, there has been a little bit of back and forth about September 7th versus September 1st<\/sup>, but for all intents and purposes here we are.\u00a0 There are all kinds of rumbling in the media.\u00a0 The most tempting headlines come from politico and the New York Times so I skipped looking at those.\u00a0 Instead I\u2019ll use my own marvelous logic to analyze the situation.<\/p>\n

Tomorrow is September 1st and it\u2019s a Saturday.\u00a0 Saturday is typically the perfect day to do something that you don\u2019t want maximally covered in the news.\u00a0 What better day to fire Mueller!\u00a0 Do I think this will happen?\u00a0 I give it a 20% likelihood.<\/p>\n

What I do hear, is that Giuliani is compiling a report on the deficiencies of the Mueller investigation<\/a>.\u00a0 He is going to highlight the partisan decisions in the choice of targets.\u00a0 This will allow him to characterize the investigation as biased and therefore illegitimate.\u00a0 And this I assume will be the basis for pulling the plug on Mueller.\u00a0 I figure it\u2019ll take at least a few weeks to unfold this little passion play.\u00a0 But I don\u2019t imagine once it gets started that it\u2019ll have to be much beyond September 15th<\/sup> before some definitive action will occur.\u00a0 My take on this is that it\u2019s a 50% \u00a0likelihood.\u00a0 It\u2019s as likely as not to happen within the next two weeks.<\/p>\n

And finally, what is the likelihood that nothing will happen until after the election.\u00a0 Well, previously I would have said very likely.\u00a0 But I think things seem to be shifting.\u00a0 That is reflected in a 30% likelihood.\u00a0 I think Mueller has done a lot of damage and seems to be intent on poisoning the mid-terms.\u00a0 President Trump recently said that Jeff Sessions will remain until after the mid-terms.\u00a0 I no longer think that\u2019s true.\u00a0 I think it\u2019s as likely as not that he\u2019ll fire Sessions and begin a counter-attack against Mueller and company before the mid-terms.<\/p>\n

Now what would that look like?\u00a0 I assume that firing Mueller, Sessions and Rosenstein will be just the tip of the iceberg.\u00a0 He must appoint a prosecutor to start actions against all the co-conspirators.\u00a0 He must begin proceedings to appoint replacements in the Justice Department and FBI.\u00a0 He must provide public information to the US citizenship and he must do all this without panicking the cowardly sheep in the Congress.<\/p>\n

So, all of that\u2019s fine.\u00a0 Good stuff.\u00a0 But look at the risk associated.\u00a0 The screeching from the media could be enough to throw the mid-terms to the Dems, even the Senate.\u00a0 So this is an enormous risk.\u00a0 Then why do I think it\u2019s more likely than not that he will move before the midterms?\u00a0 Because Mueller is going to come out with a late October, maybe even early November surprise to absolutely sway the election.\u00a0 And I think Trump is a risk taker.\u00a0 I think he will roll the dice to prevent Mueller from calling the shots.<\/p>\n

We definitely live in interesting times.\u00a0 If you have an opinion, leave it in the comments.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Several months back President Trump stated that Mueller\u2019s investigation must end before September in order to avoid interfering with the midterms.\u00a0 Well, there has been<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,818,245,237,6],"tags":[249,534,247,1306,16],"class_list":["post-4120","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-events","category-ocf","category-review-of-article","category-reviews","category-trump","tag-fire-mueller","tag-jeff-sessions","tag-mueller","tag-my-predictions","tag-trump"],"yoast_head":"\nMy Labor Day Weekend Prognostications - Orion's Cold Fire<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/orionscoldfire.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/31\/my-labor-day-weekend-prognostications\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"My Labor Day Weekend Prognostications - 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