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<\/p>\nTrying to handicap a presidential election is far from an exact science.\u00a0 So, let\u2019s have some fun.<\/p>\n
Here is a map of the 2016 presidential results in terms of the electoral college votes.\u00a0 Trump won by 77 electoral votes, 304 to 227.<\/p>\n
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A few things come to mind.\u00a0 That 77 electoral college vote lead in 2016 translates into a lot of flexibility in 2020.\u00a0 The three big surprises in 2016 were Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.\u00a0 Well a 77 electoral college vote lead means you can lose additional states with up to an additional 38 electoral votes and still win the election.\u00a0 For instance, Pennsylvania and Michigan have big cities like Detroit and Philadelphia where voter fraud is almost the rule.\u00a0 Together those two states have 36 electoral votes.\u00a0 If President Trump won all the states he won before except for Pennsylvania and Michigan, he\u2019d still win.\u00a0 That\u2019s pretty good.\u00a0 It would be very close but he\u2019d still win.\u00a0 But you might say what about Wisconsin and its 10 votes?\u00a0 Well, the folks in Minnesota and Wisconsin are still relatively honest and in fact the blue-collar workers up there have actually increased their support for President Trump over the last several years.\u00a0 I\u2019ll say that it is possible that Wisconsin could go too but let\u2019s look at those two states together.<\/p>\n
Now look at some of the \u201cclose\u201d states he lost.<\/p>\n
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Notice in each case that a third-party candidate (either Libertarian or Never-Trump or both) represented more than enough votes to turn the race around if shifted to the Republicans.<\/p>\n
The first item up is Minnesota.\u00a0 Trump lost by less than 45,000 votes.\u00a0 McMullin who was a Never-Trumper protest candidate took over 53,000 votes.\u00a0 That tells you there were over 53,000 extra republican voters available in 2016.\u00a0 Well in 2020 McMullin won\u2019t be running or if he is only Bill Kristol will be voting for him.\u00a0 But most of those 53,000 Republicans will be voting.\u00a0 Not to mention all the other blue-collar Democrats who now know that President Trump is pro-worker.\u00a0 My strong opinion is that President Trump will pick up Minnesota\u2019s 10 electoral votes in 2020.\u00a0 So, going back to an earlier scenario, let\u2019s say that Wisconsin flips, well it\u2019s just as likely that we\u2019ll snag Minnesota this time instead.\u00a0 That\u2019s pretty good.<\/p>\n
The other states are a lot harder to handicap until we know who the Democrat candidate will be.\u00a0 If Bernie or Liarwatha is the Democrat candidate then either one of their socialist platforms will be a big problem for the libertarians.\u00a0 And if that\u2019s the case then Gary Johnson\u2019s pot head voters might vote their pocketbooks and in Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, Maine and Colorado that should be more than enough to tilt all those states to President Trump.<\/p>\n
In theory that would change the Electoral College scores (all other things being equal) to 337 to 194.\u00a0 Of course, this assumes that the Democrats would allow their daft electorate to choose their own candidate.\u00a0 In actuality the politburo wants Creepy Uncle Joe or Bloomberg or Deval Patrick to be the candidate.\u00a0 And that\u2019s the big question mark.\u00a0 Can they make the switch at the convention?\u00a0 The way things are going Biden may not make it to the convention.\u00a0 He may be an indicted co-conspirator along with his nincompoop son Hunter for the Ukraine mess.\u00a0 So that would require either Bloomberg or Obama\u2019s mini-me shadow Patrick to play candidate.\u00a0 Neither is really the perfect candidate.\u00a0 Bloomberg is an insufferable rich guy trying to get the votes of the urban poor that he subjected to the stop and frisk program in New York City which in Progressive circles is considered an abomination.\u00a0 Patrick is a short squeaky voiced doofus that will be less than inspiring to the same urban crowd.\u00a0 I\u2019m guessing neither of them will bring out the Obama sized voting crowd.<\/p>\n
But let\u2019s say it is Bloomberg or Patrick.\u00a0 That will cut into the Gary Johnson vote for sure.\u00a0 But does it really change the overall situation on the ground?\u00a0 In either of those scenarios I see Minnesota and the states he won in 2016 still going to President Trump and the rest of those states above toss-ups that, let\u2019s say, go to the Dems.\u00a0 Final Electoral College total 314 to 217.\u00a0 That\u2019s almost a hundred-point difference.\u00a0 That means President trump has a pad of 46 points that can go against him and still win.\u00a0 That\u2019s more electoral votes than in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan combined.\u00a0 That\u2019s as much as Texas and Wisconsin combined.<\/p>\n
So those are the rosiest projections.\u00a0 Between now and Election Day a lot of bad things can happen.\u00a0 But you would have to borrow a lot of trouble to assume at this point that the odds are against us.\u00a0 The economy, the stupidity of the Democrats, the obvious falseness of all the Deep State machinations against the President\u2019s administration all add up to an advantage at the polls.\u00a0 The items like voter fraud and changing demographics all existed almost identically in 2016.\u00a0 Plus, the president has energized his base and they are behind him 100%.\u00a0 Even the independents are starting to break his way.\u00a0 A lot can go wrong but right now is not the time for fretting.\u00a0 The wind is at our backs and the prospects for even better things seem to be there.<\/p>\n
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