[It does not pay a prophet to be too specific. – L. Sprague de Camp]
Only a great fool would claim to know in advance how 2025 will end. Everything from nuclear Armageddon to the return of the Prince of Peace is definitely on the table. My radius of likely outcomes is slightly narrower (at least on the upside). I could easily imagine things going very wrong between the United States and Russia or China or Iran in the foreseeable future. And by wrong I don’t necessarily mean a full nuclear exchange with either of the first two of those nations. There is plenty of room for low level violence and sabotage that could cause our lives to be much worse. For instance, an aircraft carrier is becoming an increasingly vulnerable target to any number of new threats. If a carrier were badly damaged or even sunk it might not lead to a nuclear exchange but it would cause a cascade of actions that will threaten war.
But let’s put war aside for a moment. At least global war. Let’s look at what will be going on in North America. Trump intends to close the borders. And that will both include Mexico and Canada. This will change the way things are done in several aspects of life. It will impact migration (obviously) but it will also impact industry. A lot of stuff is built in Mexico and Canada. The transportation of these products will be impacted. And illegal importation (drugs, sex slaves) will also be impacted. The Mexican and other gangs that control these illicit trades will have to be confronted head on in what will amount to a war on the southern border. This alone could be the toughest thing Donald Trump will be faced with during his presidency. He may have to live in a bunker due to the military capability of these gangs. It’s a cinch their snipers are a lot more accurate than the ones the CIA found during the 2024 election. Anyway, if he’s serious he’ll have his hands full with this action.
As for the economy, well, I think by default things will get somewhat better. Just seeing the Greens pushed out of the White House will encourage the petroleum industry to improve the energy situation in the United States. Who knows, maybe gasoline will fall below two dollars again. And if that happens it will have a knock-on effect on the rest of the economy as transportation costs fall and with it the price of most commodities. Now I wouldn’t exaggerate the extent of this. Prices don’t usually fall except during a recession. But if they stop going up it will begin to stanch the economic bleeding of the middle class.
Beyond that Trump can do a lot to encourage corporate on-shoring of manufacturing. Tariffs can be of two varieties. You can raise tariffs on the products of foreign companies or you can put tariffs on products that are manufactured outside of this country regardless of the nationality of the company that owns the factory. This will encourage companies (foreign or domestic) to manufacture here the products they want to sell here. Personally, if a Toyota car is built in Georgetown, Kentucky I consider it more American than a GM car built in Mexico or Canada. So, will any of this happen? Possibly not in 2025.
And finally, will he drain the swamp in 2025? Well, not completely but he does want to put Kash Patel in charge of the FBI. I read that they had him under investigation. I don’t know much more about him than what I’ve read but wouldn’t it be amusing if it turns out he’s a vindictive bastard who took his own targeting personally and wanted a lot of payback. I think there could be a lot of very amusing things going on in Washington this year. And from my point of view that’s worth something in and of itself.
So those are just some hints at what might be going on. Let’s hope it’s more swamp draining and less Armageddon but whatever else it’s going to be very busy and very exciting.