So long COVID-19, hello domestic terrorist manhunt. The electorate is a complicated jigsaw puzzle of competing priorities. Race, ethnicity, age and sex factor into the calculations that parties and candidates have to make as to where to invest time and money trying to pick up votes and where not to bother.
As I mentioned yesterday, I think Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey just threw Minnesota firmly into the Trump camp. Going beyond that I wouldn’t be surprised if we pick up a House seat or two. I’ll explain why I said that. President Trump has always had a difficult time garnering the votes of upper middle-class women. The women I mean are office workers and middle managers who have families but also have feminist friends at work who constantly harangue them on the evils of President Trump. And so even if they themselves are not man-hating harridans, they are sympathetic to the narrative of the evil patriarchy keeping down the virtuous and brilliant women of the world.
Because of this the President’s numbers have always been skewed toward men. It is true that in 2016 he did win the white-woman-vote. But in 2018 the republicans lost a number of seats because the white women’s vote turned sharply against them. That was why so many women were in the 2020 Democrat Presidential field. And that is why someone as crazy as Elizabeth warren is still in the running for Democrat VP. Warrren is catnip to the angry woman’s vote. I wouldn’t have been surprised at all if Warren was selected, although all things considered I still consider it more likely that another woman, Kamala Harris, will be the pick. And that’s because Kamala also ticks off that exciting African-American box that is also so important to the Democrat coalition. In this sense she’s a twofer.
And up until the COVID-19 debacle the Democrats had the added headache of an economy that was dropping African-American unemployment to all-time lows and boosting paychecks too. Despite the recent public cases of celebrity African-Americans embracing President Trump such as Kanye West there is no danger of that vote shifting decisively to him. But if there is no particular anger toward the President the danger for the Democrats is that the African American vote won’t show up in large numbers at all. And that would more or less cook their goose.
But now we have a new wrinkle. The rioting that Antifa has sparked after the death of George Floyd looks like it might cause the black vote to come out strongly for the Democrats. But what it also will most probably do is push the white-woman-vote to the Republicans. And the reason is quite simple. No matter how you feel about President Trump’s relations with women if you’re a woman who works in a city or suburb seeing the rioters burning, looting and beating the inhabitants of your local metropolis and promising on social networks that they’re headed out to your suburb to finish the job you are probably plenty scared. And since this is all going on without your local Democrat Mayor or Governor stopping it, you’re probably looking for a man who will. And guess who that is? That’s right, America’s most reviled patriarchal alpha male President Trump. And all of a sudden, his strutting and posturing doesn’t seem like such a bad thing. When that loser Mayor Jacob Frey abandoned the local police precinct to the looters and the arsonist and the area devolved into bedlam President Trump said that if the Governor didn’t bring in National Guard troops right away then he’d have to do it instead. That probably sounds pretty reassuring to someone in St. Paul who hears that the rioters have crossed the river and will be in striking distance that night. So that’s it in a nutshell. The race riots will probably throw the black vote to Biden but it almost surely will throw the white-woman (and hispanic-woman) -vote to President Trump. That’s a trade the Democrats can’t afford.
Combine that with the some of the revelations that are probably going to come out of the Russia-gate investigations and the improvements in the unemployment numbers that should begin to unfold in the third quarter and it looks difficult for Creepy Uncle Joe to keep up. And one other thing should be interesting. What will come out of the Antifa investigation? Antifa is a guerilla organization that has been causing great harm but getting a free ride. If some of their members are linked directly to the violence in Minneapolis that will make them Public Enemy Number One. Antifa gets funding from Left-Wing sources such as George Soros. If any of these sources turn out to be friends of Joe Biden or even Obama that would truly cook their goose.