New Year’s Eve 2022 – Reflections

It’s expected that we look back at the end of the year and try to draw some conclusions about what happened during the Earth’s last revolution around the Sun.  And I guess I see the value in that.  Some of the observations may not be very profound but there is value in reflecting on the various events and how they have or have not impacted our lives.  And we can look at trends and extrapolate on how those things will play out over the next year and beyond.  So, let’s say there’s value.

Looking back on the year, what stands out is the depths of the Republicans’ defeat by the Democrats.  I would say that there is no comparable example of an incumbent party in such a disastrous economy surviving a mid-term with so little damage to their ranks.  We are in a different place.  Whether it’s the ballot harvesting or a new majority of Americans out there, is hard for me to say.  Maybe it’s both.  But the importance of this new reality is impossible to overstate.

At the same time, I think we’ve reached the end of the awakening of the American population as to how their country is actually run.  Nobody believes in the myths of election fairness or unbiased behavior by the bureaucrats who really run this country.  Everyone has seen how the FBI and the courts treat Democrats and Republicans differently.  And this is the positive flip-side of the Democrats’ victory.  Everyone on the Right knows we’re being cheated and there will be no reconciliation.  The best the Left can expect is sullen resignation.  And if the opportunity ever arises, they can expect pay back.

On the economic front Biden’s war on hydrocarbons is having the expected results.  Almost every facet of the economy is suffering from very significant cost increases.  Food, energy, transportation and anything that has to be manufactured and shipped is more expensive.  Inflation is running between 10% and 20% depending on how you compute it.

The higher fuel costs are permanent.  And the current inflation is predicted to throw the economy into recession in 2023.  The layoffs that have already begun will reduce the inflation to some extent.  People will have to tighten their belts and save money where they can.  Those who lose their jobs are in for a really bad time.

Another trend that looks to be continuing is the migration from blue states like California and New York to red states like Texas and Florida.  Some is just economic reality because of the realities of blue state life; high taxes and bad business policy.  But some of it is people escaping the craziness.  And you can’t blame them.  The Blue cities have descended into chaos and the woke laws in these blue states cancel the freedoms we’re supposed to have under the Constitution.

As far as the Ukraine War, it’s very hard to say how all of that will end.  If the Russians have the wherewithal to crush the Ukraine, and I think they do, we’re going to be looking at a new international order.  If the Russians form a durable bloc with the Chinese the United States and Europe will be in a different environment.  Having abandoned industrial capacity in the United States and transferred it to China and more generally Asia, we are liable to lose the financial hegemony that we have enjoyed since the end of World War II.  Even the primacy of the US dollar is not assured.  And the ramifications of America’s descent from a global hegemon to just another competitor state will have very serious consequences for all of us.  We’ve been able to underwrite a defense budget, the size of which almost staggers the imagination.  When that is no longer possible, areas of our economy will contract radically and that will have a knock-on effect for the rest of the economy.  The United States is about to experience what every superpower from Spain to Britain experienced when it was knocked from the top perch of the global hierarchy.

And based on what happened in Afghanistan the people we have in charge of war and foreign policy are not very skilled at what they do.  There is a very real chance that they may botch a crisis.  They may even decide to interfere in the Ukraine war to such an extent that they panic or anger the Russians into a full nuclear exchange.  It’s hard to imagine that happening, but honestly, many people feel we are in a much worse place than we were back at the height of the Cold War.  And if that happens, we can stop thinking about extrapolations.  No one should pretend that they have any idea what the survivors of an all-out nuclear war will face or how things will evolve for humanity from that point.  All that is certain is that life will be infinitely worse than it is now.

But let’s assume for now that we avoid nuclear annihilation in the coming year.  It looks like we have some bad times coming.  The takeaway for me is to avoid incurring debt and build up any capability to earn money through enterprise.  Socially it makes sense to continue to reach out to friends, family and like-minded people to network and help each other any way we can.  And make a point of avoiding any entanglements with the Left at all costs.

So, there’s my review and extrapolation for 2022.  Happy New Year to all those out there.  Be happy and be safe.

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