So, what if it’s true that Hollywood as an industry is more or less done? Suppose that there won’t be ten or twenty somewhat-good movies coming out every year anymore. What if instead there are a couple of decent mini-series by Netflix and Amazon and maybe one or two summer “blockbuster” fantasies and all the rest is just low budget dreck? How would that affect the entertainment habits of the population?
Well, let’s think about what the population is. Currently the populace is divided into several different divisions. But overall, there is a demarcation into two larger groups. First there are the boomers and GenX contingents. They both grew up when entertainment was big business and they are used to paying for entertainment that they consider “good.” They would go to a good movie or buy a music album if they consider it worthwhile. These are the people who are most distressed by the current state of American entertainment. Someone my age looks at television or what is currently considered good cinema or popular music and is horrified by the low quality and overall stupidity of the art.
The second grouping is everyone younger; millennials and the Zoomers. For the most part these people don’t buy music or pay for movies. They stream everything and are willing to watch and listen to low quality content if they can pay next to nothing for it. Not being part of this group I’m not completely sure whether this strategy is a byproduct of their poverty or whether they simply don’t care what kind of entertainment product they consume. Nevertheless, the outcome either way is that the future will be determined by this paradigm. Entertainment businesses will not be making the kinds of profits they made from the boomers and GenX from the new kids. Okay, that’s what we are seeing. Entertainment will become mass marketing of the lowest common denominator at the lowest price. In other words; garbage.
But that will not be the whole story. The bell curve is a fact of nature. Most of humanity is very average, and lately that average seems to have sunk a bit. But the right side of the curve exists. There is a segment of the population that is intelligent and they need entertainment that isn’t always the lowest common denominator. And they tend to be more prosperous than their less intelligent brethren. And whereas they will join with everyone else to celebrate whatever moronic pop star or whatever mindless video game happens to be in vogue this month, they will occasionally need something more nutritious for the mind and soul. And how will this work? After all there isn’t a pipeline for intelligent entertainment.
What I think will happen is organizations; whether corporate or individuals, will spring up to curate what’s out there and arrange for venues and opportunities for these people to enjoy this better entertainment together. Now maybe the “together” isn’t physical. Maybe they’ll be doing this over the internet with chat functions used to allow the patrons to share their reactions to the content. But I think renting a theater to play old movies (or new movies that have been made expressly for a specialized audience) would make perfect sense.
The power of the internet to connect smaller but focused groups is already very well known. What still needs to happen is for a larger group of intelligent people to coalesce around a commercial entity that is willing to provide them with entertainment that exceeds the lowest common denominator on a consistent basis. But I think it will happen. Some day soon, the not-stupid will band together and find out just how strong they are.
Entertainment will become mass marketing of the lowest common denominator at the lowest price. In other words; garbage. A 2003 video of an interview with Ben Affleck has been circling around lately where he discusses the (at the time big topic) Napster file-sharing and movie piracy going on as technology advanced. While not explicitly stated, he brought up the future of the industry moving towards a near full-on subscription service business model of video on demand. As the digital age is fully upon us, the quality in filmmaking has obviously suffered. And why wouldn’t it? If they can simply churn out… Read more »
It’s here. It’s now. The only thing missing is entrepreneurs to identify the niche markets and provide them with niche products. That seems to be slower. Maybe it has to wait until an equilibrium is established. Maybe the not-stupid people have to build it themselves.