Back in March 2017 I purchased Taleb’s four volume set “Incerto: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile.” Taleb is a retired options trader. He made his fortune betting on unlikely events. And the topic of that whole, almost sixteen hundred page work, was the concept of the Black Swan. The Black Swan is the very rare but extremely disruptive event. It’s the thousand-year storm, the “extinct” volcano eruption, the Black Monday stock crash. The subject is extremely interesting and I plan to review these books in the future. “Skin in the Game,” on the other hand is not about any of that. It’s more or less exactly about what it’s named, skin in the game. Well let me qualify that. He explains why those without skin in the game shouldn’t be trusted with deciding what is and isn’t risky.
Taleb’s writing style is iterative. He provides numerous examples of various aspects of this thesis. I will now distill the whole book into one sentence. Never trust anyone who doesn’t have skin in the game. That’s the whole thing right there. But Taleb provides the logic, the applications and the ethical underpinning for why those who avoid a risk have no credibility talking about risk. One of his prime examples are the big banks who benefitted phenomenally from financial practices that ignored the risks associated with their business practices but when the meltdown finally came were bailed out by the federal government by claiming the meltdown was an act of God. So, if they know they can’t lose they have no skin in the game and therefore can’t be trusted to avoid endangering everyone.
The list of untrustworthy authorities is defined to include any entity that is centralized, bureaucratic and otherwise insulated from accountability. Highest on that list is anyone who either directly or indirectly partakes in the immunity of the federal bureaucracy. EPA administrators, climate and wildlife scientists, IRS agents, FDA and banking regulators and all other petty mandarins that are immunized against real life consequences but revel in their ability to bully and dictate to the productive sectors of the population.
Taleb makes a lot of good points and reinforces his theories with examples from normal life and even adds some mathematical rigor to his argument to show that these unaccountable experts that benefit from heads-I-win-tails-the-fed-bails-me-out tactics need to be made accountable for benefitting from Black Swan government insurance.
Throughout the book Taleb makes use of concepts that he explored in his larger study Incerto. The concepts of fragility and the above described Black Swan. He also mentions the “Lindy Effect.” It’s the phenomenon that the longer something is successful the longer it is predicted to continue being successful. This highlights that one of the real advantages of skin in the game is the sorting of winners and losers along an evolutionary and survival of the fittest mechanism. Without this accountability it’s possible for hidden bubbles to grow unnoticed and take down the system they reside in.
Skin in the Game is a strange combination of philosophical meditation and real-world critique of the unaccountable entities that put us all at risk. I can’t and won’t pretend that this book will be enjoyed by everyone. Taleb has an odd repetitive style that at times can seem almost garrulous. He has many axes to grind and he can be both petty and somewhat gossipy in his personal anecdotes. But he has a very strong case for his thesis. And the point is a valuable one to keep in mind. Basically, he is providing a tool to evaluate experts. The question to ask yourself about them is what would they lose if they are wrong. If the answer is not much then run away.
And finally, this reminds me of a story I once heard about Grouch Marx. It might be apocryphal. When the New York Stock Exchange crashed in 1929 Groucho Marx lost $800,000. When Groucho received this news in his stockbroker’s office he was devastated and became almost incoherent. His broker tried to console him by saying Marx wasn’t alone and that everyone had lost. When Groucho thought about this he regained some composure and asked the broker how much he had lost. When the broker replied $350, Groucho then attempted to strangle him.
Remember. Look for skin in the game.