Perhaps the Scope of the COVID-19 Crisis Won’t Be as Bad as Predicted

The “Murray” model is the one being used by the White House task force.  But it seems to be overestimating the numbers.

“The discrepancies are also stark when looked at on a state-by-state basis. The model estimated that 65,434 patients would need hospital beds in New York State on Friday. In reality, there were 15,905 hospitalizations in that state by Sunday morning, according to the COVID Tracking Project.”

“The forecast predicted, for example, that the United States would need around 164,750 hospital beds for COVID-19 patients on Saturday. Yet the COVID Tracking Project, a team of journalists and data analysts who collect and tabulate coronavirus data from state tallies around the country, reported only around 22,158 currently hospitalized coronavirus patients nationwide on Saturday.”

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Tyler, the Portly PoliticophotogChipChemistWar Pig Recent comment authors
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War Pig
War Pig

Blown out of proportion to ensure less resistance while our Constitutional Rights are eroded.


Blown out of proportion to force Trump into a corner.


Oh they’ve been off alright. I’ve been looking at these numbers for weeks now and they’ve been off by many factors on beds, hospitalizations, deaths, you name it. The low range estimate of deaths now is 45k! Sure, let’s shut the whole damn country down over it though. It’s never been done before but Trump is President so let’s do it now. Napoleon Fauci predicted this outbreak in 2017. Surprise!

Tyler, the Portly Politico

Even if this situation “gets worse before it gets better” (a common refrain I’ve heard from the “social distancing” people), it’s not going to be nearly as bad as everyone predicted. Some of the numbers people were putting out there were clearly absurd, and far outside the range of even the deadliest plagues of the past (and we have modern medicine!). There’s definitely an erosion of liberties at play here. I’ve written two posts recently to that effect: 1.) “The Tyranny of Experts” – 2.) “Liberty in The Age of The Virus” – Great post, photog. Let’s hope… Read more »