An article in the Spectator gives us quantitative information on the infection and mortality rates for this virus. Anti-body testing in a hard hit town in Germany has some useful results:
“A team at the University of Bonn has tested a randomized sample of 1,000 residents of the town of Gangelt in the north-west of the country, one of the epicenters of the outbreak in Germany. The study found that two percent of the population currently had the virus and that 14 percent were carrying antibodies suggesting that they had already been infected — whether or not they experienced any symptoms. Eliminating an overlap between the two groups, the team concluded that 15 percent of the town have been infected with the virus.”
“Data from coronavirus deaths in Gangelt suggests an infection mortality rate of 0.37 percent, significantly below the 0.9 percent which Imperial College has estimated, or the 0.66 percent found in a revised study last week.”
Applying my patented back of the envelope calculation method that equals an expected death total for the United States of 183,000 people. If a normal flu death total for the United States is between thirty and fifty thousand lives a year then this thing is about five times deadlier than the flu.
But here’s the rub, eighty percent (80%) of those deaths are people over seventy years of age. By only isolating the retired population and the seriously ill and letting everyone else go back to work, we can reduce the number of deaths to a handful and still let the country get back to normal.
Let’s hope cooler heads prevail and the Health-Nazis don’t sentence us and our way of life to oblivion.