Finally Some Useful Data on COVID-19

An article in the Spectator gives us quantitative information on the infection and mortality rates for this virus.  Anti-body testing in a hard hit town in Germany has some useful results:

“A team at the University of Bonn has tested a randomized sample of 1,000 residents of the town of Gangelt in the north-west of the country, one of the epicenters of the outbreak in Germany. The study found that two percent of the population currently had the virus and that 14 percent were carrying antibodies suggesting that they had already been infected — whether or not they experienced any symptoms. Eliminating an overlap between the two groups, the team concluded that 15 percent of the town have been infected with the virus.”

“Data from coronavirus deaths in Gangelt suggests an infection mortality rate of 0.37 percent, significantly below the 0.9 percent which Imperial College has estimated, or the 0.66 percent found in a revised study last week.”

Applying my patented back of the envelope calculation method that equals an expected death total for the United States of 183,000 people.  If a normal flu death total for the United States is between thirty and fifty thousand lives a year then this thing is about five times deadlier than the flu.

But here’s the rub, eighty percent (80%) of those deaths are people over seventy years of age.  By only isolating the retired population and the seriously ill and letting everyone else go back to work, we can reduce the number of deaths to a handful and still let the country get back to normal.

Let’s hope cooler heads prevail and the Health-Nazis don’t sentence us and our way of life to oblivion.

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War Pig
War Pig
6 months ago

Authority figures are already catching heat. In normally law abiding Germany, police who tried to break up a gathering were met with rocks through the police car windshields, and menacing from people armed with more rocks and iron bars. If goose-stepping law and order Germany has come to this, how far behind can America be? And unlike the Germans, we are an armed populace. At a social distancing violation party of some 400 people in I believe Bakersfield, California, shots were fired. Police found some 94 shell casings and 6 people shot but no life threatening injuries. 94 empty shell… Read more »

Tyler, the Portly Politico

Yes, this confirms much of what we’ve suspected for some time. I agree—let’s be smart about quarantining the elderly, but let the rest of us get on with our lives, build up herd immunity, and get the economy revved back up. Did you ever watch that show _Sliders_, photog? There’s an episode in which the team “slides” into a universe in which penicillin has never been discovered, and the CDC (or maybe the California Department of Health) assumes totalitarian authority over a sickened Los Angeles. I keep thinking of that episode amid this whole fiasco. Here’s hoping we’re free again… Read more »