The author’s thesis is that Putin losing the Ukraine war is probably the least likely alternative. I thought it was a pretty good analysis of the likelihood of the various outcomes in the Ukraine War.
I think those in the West misunderstand the dynamic at work. NATO has an agenda. When that agenda threatens Russia too much it acts to push it back. and now they’ve gone beyond a red line and may have permanently antagonized Vladimir Putin. And that is a bad outcome for the West. It is no longer a monopole world. Russia, China, India and other states are starting to realize there is life outside of the West. That is a very big deal.