The Western Alliance Begins to Plan for the Ukraine’s Collapse

Politico published an article that confirms that Ukraine admits that the Russian offensive will force the Ukrainians to yield large swaths of their country wherever the assault comes.

Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing

Battle for Avdiivka Over. Ukrainian Retreat Imperiled.

The Russians have worn down the Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka to the point that a rescue mission was organized to extract the defenders before it was too late.  Now the rescuers must save themselves along with their besieged brethren.

Avdiivka has become the new Bakhmut where the Russians have ground down their adversaries in a war of attrition.  Both sides have probably lost several thousand men and now the numerical superiority of the Russians has won them the city, or what’s left of it.

The next act will be the retreat by the Ukrainian forces down the few roads that can accommodate war vehicles.  The Russians have encircled the city and the next day or so will witness whether the retreating army can escape decimation.

This war has been one long series of horrific clashes.  With western aid drying up it will be surprising if the Ukrainians manage to continue this war of attrition for much longer.

US and EU Began Preparing Ukraine for Negotiations Last Month

So now that the US, EU and Ukraine know what we already knew six months ago they’re letting it leak out to the general public.

“The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal, the officials said. Some of the talks, which officials described as delicate, took place last month during a meeting of representatives from more than 50 nations supporting Ukraine, including NATO members, known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the officials said.”

The problem with those talks is they don’t include Russia.

“The Biden administration does not have any indication that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to negotiate with Ukraine, two U.S. officials said. Western officials say Putin still believes he can “wait out the West,” or keep fighting until the U.S. and its allies lose domestic support for funding Ukraine or the struggle to supply Kyiv with weapons and ammunition becomes too costly, officials said.”

What’s wrong with this whole picture.  We convinced the Ukrainians that between their manpower and our weapons the Russians would be crushed in months.  That is probably because we believed that Ukraine was just a foreign possession of Russia.  And they wouldn’t expend the blood and treasure to fight for it.

But there are millions of Russians for whom the Donbass is their ancestral home.  It would be like California breaking away from the US and the Mexicans living there trying to force the Anglo residents of Northern California to give up their language and culture.  If it came down to pictures of Sacramento being ethnically cleansed would it be surprising if the US stepped in and tried to annex the Anglo areas?  I don’t think so.  Well at least if we had a president who didn’t hate America.

After this I’m guessing the Baltic states and the Eastern Europeans will begin reevaluating their relations with the US, the EU and Russia.  Following the lead of the US in matters of war has been shown over the last twenty years or so to be a perilous strategy.

So the geniuses in the Pentagon and the State Department had already figured this out months ago but continued to spout all the nonsense about the breakout that was about to sweep away the Russians in Crimea.  One thing though, the reality of what will end up happening there should make it easier for the Republican House to put a stop to that $61 billion Biden wants to finish off the few remaining Ukrainian men.

I wonder where in the US Zelensky will end up retiring to?  Hopefully he’ll update his ensemble and stick to comedy but skip the piano playing.

The Truth Leaks Out of Kiev

Up until this summer the audience in the West heard from their leaders and the media that

  • Ukraine was inflicting enormous casualties on Russia while suffering very light losses to their own troops.
  • Russia’s population was dead set against the war and only prisoners were fighting on the Russian side.
  • The Russian troops and officers were incompetent and had rock bottom morale.
  • That with the provision of advanced western weapons and training Ukraine would sweep away the Russians and recapture all of the Eastern provinces including Crimea.

During the summer and into the fall word started getting out that the Ukrainian counter-offensive, bolstered by Western tanks and other armored vehicles was suffering tens of thousands of casualties and wasn’t able to punch through the defensive lines that the Russians had prepared in Zaporizhzhia to protect Crimea from assault.  Now with the onset of winter many in America and Europe are starting to question whether the tens of billions of dollars in weapons and aid have accomplished anything more than facilitating a slaughter of Ukrainians and Russians without accomplishing anything worthwhile.

Finally, word is now leaking out of Ukraine that the leaders surrounding President Zelensky no longer share his almost religious belief that Ukraine can win the war they are engaged in.  And the news first broke in the periodical that had declared Zelensky “Man of the Year” in 2022, Time.

In an interview with Ukrainian leaders many parts of the real story come out.

“But his (Zelensky’s) convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.”

When I raised these claims with a senior military officer, he said that some commanders have little choice in second-guessing orders from the top. At one point in early October, he said, the political leadership in Kyiv demanded an operation to “retake” the city of Horlivka, a strategic outpost in eastern Ukraine that the Russians have held and fiercely defended for nearly a decade. The answer came back in the form of a question: With what? “They don’t have the men or the weapons,” says the officer. “Where are the weapons? Where is the artillery? Where are the new recruits?”

In some branches of the military, the shortage of personnel has become even more dire than the deficit in arms and ammunition. One of Zelensky’s close aides tells me that even if the U.S. and its allies come through with all the weapons they have pledged, “we don’t have the men to use them.”

Since the start of the invasion, Ukraine has refused to release official counts of dead and wounded. But according to U.S. and European estimates, the toll has long surpassed 100,000 on each side of the war. It has eroded the ranks of Ukraine’s armed forces so badly that draft offices have been forced to call up ever older personnel, raising the average age of a soldier in Ukraine to around 43 years. “They’re grown men now, and they aren’t that healthy to begin with,” says the close aide to Zelensky. “This is Ukraine. Not Scandinavia.””

And this is a Biden Administration cheerleader saying this.  If you read other sources they’re even more dire.

“Alone among his team, Zelensky seems not to understand how circumstances have changed. Shuster and TIME try their best to portray him as the last stalwart of the Ukrainian cause, but the fact that his own inner circle is the source of the torrent of revelations and complaints suggests that his immovability owes not to Churchillian resolve but rather to an impervious bunker mentality.”

What seems to be the case is the neo-cons have decided that bleeding Russia by genociding the Ukraine is a sensible policy.  Even people who despise Vladimir Putin and desire the United States to dominate in Eastern European politics should have enough basic humanity to recoil from what’s going on in Eastern Ukraine.  It’s just an update of 1914.  Meatgrinders in Bakhmut and Avdiivka are just senseless wars of attrition that kill and maim tens of thousands of men while yielding up only bombed out moonscapes to the victor.

Russia is bleeding but Ukraine is bleeding out.  Hopefully House Speaker Mike Johnson will have the good sense to put an end to this nightmarish quagmire of death.  If we stop sending them billions of dollars in “aid” the only ones who will lose will be the oligarchs that won’t be able to steal their chunk of the loot.  The rest of the Ukrainians can go back home and pick up what’s left of their lives and their future.

There’s Chatter That Ukraine Will Blow Up the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant

Several sources are claiming that in the next couple of days Ukraine will launch a false flag attack on the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and blame it on the Russians in order to convince NATO to declare war on Russia.  It sounds absurd.  But then again what isn’t absurd in this world?

Do I think it’s likely?  No, but would I be shocked if they did?  No.  This is reminiscent of the Nordstream pipeline attack.  Blame it on the Russians then finally admit it was Ukraine (or maybe us).

The Ukrainian “spring” counter-offensive is not going that well.  The NATO summit is happening next week in Vilnius.  A panic over radiation would allow angry posturing to break out in Vilnius.  Probably unlikely but you never know.

Yevgeny Prigozhin Declares War on Russia

The head of the Wagner group has headed into Russia with his army.  Is Prigozhin crossing the Rubicon?  We’ll probably know very soon.  The outcome of this mutiny cannot be predicted.

Apparently the Russian military was trying to separate Prigozhin from his troops and he decided to forestall that by starting his own war!

I would say things are spinning out of control.  What this will mean to the larger war can only be imagined.  But obviously if the CIA has been hinting about coups occurring in Belarus then possibly this is related.

Stay tuned.

Update:

Putin addresses the Russian nation about the rebellion.

US, NATO and Ukraine Organize Peace Summit Without Russia

This is hilarious.  Apparently the West will end the Ukraine war without involving the Russians.  Maybe they’ll leave a transcript of the terms in Vladimir Putin’s e-mail in-box so he won’t accidentally violate them.  I’m sure he’ll want to know that he’ll be handing back the provinces that he’s annexed and surrender himself to the Hague for war crimes prosecution.

“Kyiv has made a concerted effort in recent months to engage with countries such as China, Brazil and India. Ukraine is ready to talk with all countries and hear their opinions, Yermak said, including representatives of China and Brazil, who visited this month.
Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan calls for restoring Ukraine’s control over its territory, returning prisoners of war and prosecuting war crimes. It also proposes addressing nuclear safety, which it says is compromised by Russia’s occupation of a nuclear power plant, and food security, by protecting grain exports that are hampered by Russia’s invasion.”
I kind of doubt China will be coming on board for this farce.  I’m not so sure about India either.
This is my favorite line:

“The process is not possible without the whole world, including the leaders of the global south,” said Yermak, who is Zelensky’s top adviser.”

The whole world except the country they’re actually at war with.  Delusional and in fact embarrassing.

The Ukraine War Approaches Its Climax

Now that the Battle of Bakhmut is over everyone is wondering what the next step will be in this war.  Currently there have been incursions into Russia proper by Ukrainian forces.  It is being claimed by the Ukrainians that the attackers are Russian partisans who want to overthrow Putin’s government.  But a number of the attackers were captured and these turned out to be Ukrainians.

In the last few weeks there has been a significant increase in missile and drone attacks by both sides.  Drone attacks on Moscow and missile attacks in Kiev have become a common occurrence.  Today the word is the Russians hit the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence headquarters to take out the Ukrainian and Western brains behind the drone attacks on Moscow.  Now whether they succeeded in destroying the headquarters or decapitating the military intelligence organization is completely unknown.  What is clear is that this is all moving toward an escalated war where more than just the front-line troops are impacted.

The Russians have been concentrating on disrupting the anticipated “spring” offensive.  The most notable effort has been a string of missile attacks on large ammunition depots, some apparently so enormous that seismic readings as high as 3.5 on the Richter Scale have been detected.  But they’ve also been attacking large troop emplacements.

In the last few weeks, the western press has been hinting that the spring offensive may not provide a significant change in the status quo and that maybe it’s time for a negotiated settlement.  But there’s no indication by either side that negotiations are even possible.

So, it looks like sooner or later we’re going to hear about full-scale military operations with the battle tanks and other equipment that the West has donated and with the troops they trained over the last six months.  One thing that can be said is that this will be the decisive series of battles of the war.  The Ukrainians will be expending the last reserves of their prime manpower.  If they are to deal a decisive defeat to the Russians it will have to be now.  Otherwise, they will be without the troops and even without the artillery ammunition they would need to continue the war against the larger and better equipped Russian forces.

I expect that the Russians will be hunkering down behind their defensive works and will make the Ukrainians pay very dearly for a frontal assault on these positions.  But without a doubt if the Ukrainians go all out to break through these lines the casualties on both sides will be enormous.  So, what we will see is a reenactment of the kinds of battles they fought in World War I; massive artillery bombardment and frontal assaults on heavily reinforced positions.  But added to this will be massive tank attacks by the Ukrainians and modern missile and drone attacks by both sides.

So, either way this goes the Slavic peoples are about to experience a tragic blood-letting.  And essentially the US State Department and the CIA are the authors of this tragedy.  It will be interesting what the fruits of this decision will be for us.  We handed the Ukrainians tens of billions of dollars’ worth of weaponry.  I wonder which of our enemies will be provided with Russian weapons to pay us back.  I hate to think of the Mexican drug cartels with several billion dollars’ worth of drones and missiles loose inside of our non-existent southern border.  But that’s a distinct possibility.  And who will we have to blame but our own government.

26APR2023 – Update on the Bakhmut Fight

As can be seen in the satellite photo below, the Russians (in red) have almost completed the painfully slow process of ejecting the Ukrainians from Bakhmut by reducing the city to rubble via artillery bombardment.  The Ukrainians are probably down to a few thousand soldiers with the bulk having already retreated out of Bakhmut to the nearby towns of Chasiv Yar and Ivanivske.

But supposedly the final stronghold is structurally reinforced and may even be hiding a tunnel system out of the city.  Previously it was believed that this stronghold of tall apartment buildings was being held by some of the most battle-hardened professionals in the Ukraine forces.  Whether that is still the case is unknown.  But the fighting at this point may even be harder and bloodier than what came before in this already grueling battle.

The Ukrainians are attempting to hold onto the town until after May 9th which is the anniversary (in Russia) of the end of WWII in Europe.  They want to deny Russia the propaganda boost that the date represents in the Russian mind.  Looks like it could go either way.

After the end of the Bakhmut conflict it is widely believed that the Ukrainian counterattack will commence.  Well, that is if the ground dries out sufficiently for heavy vehicles to move easily through the mud.  Apparently the rain for the last couple of weeks has rendered the fields impassable.  Hell of a war they’ve (or we’ve) got going there.