Several sources are claiming that in the next couple of days Ukraine will launch a false flag attack on the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and blame it on the Russians in order to convince NATO to declare war on Russia. It sounds absurd. But then again what isn’t absurd in this world?
Do I think it’s likely? No, but would I be shocked if they did? No. This is reminiscent of the Nordstream pipeline attack. Blame it on the Russians then finally admit it was Ukraine (or maybe us).
The Ukrainian “spring” counter-offensive is not going that well. The NATO summit is happening next week in Vilnius. A panic over radiation would allow angry posturing to break out in Vilnius. Probably unlikely but you never know.
The head of the Wagner group has headed into Russia with his army. Is Prigozhin crossing the Rubicon? We’ll probably know very soon. The outcome of this mutiny cannot be predicted.
Apparently the Russian military was trying to separate Prigozhin from his troops and he decided to forestall that by starting his own war!
I would say things are spinning out of control. What this will mean to the larger war can only be imagined. But obviously if the CIA has been hinting about coups occurring in Belarus then possibly this is related.
Putin addresses the Russian nation about the rebellion.
This is hilarious. Apparently the West will end the Ukraine war without involving the Russians. Maybe they’ll leave a transcript of the terms in Vladimir Putin’s e-mail in-box so he won’t accidentally violate them. I’m sure he’ll want to know that he’ll be handing back the provinces that he’s annexed and surrender himself to the Hague for war crimes prosecution.
“Kyiv has made a concerted effort in recent months to engage with countries such as China, Brazil and India. Ukraine is ready to talk with all countries and hear their opinions, Yermak said, including representatives of China and Brazil, who visited this month.
Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan calls for restoring Ukraine’s control over its territory, returning prisoners of war and prosecuting war crimes. It also proposes addressing nuclear safety, which it says is compromised by Russia’s occupation of a nuclear power plant, and food security, by protecting grain exports that are hampered by Russia’s invasion.”
I kind of doubt China will be coming on board for this farce. I’m not so sure about India either.
This is my favorite line:
“The process is not possible without the whole world, including the leaders of the global south,” said Yermak, who is Zelensky’s top adviser.”
The whole world except the country they’re actually at war with. Delusional and in fact embarrassing.
Now that the Battle of Bakhmut is over everyone is wondering what the next step will be in this war. Currently there have been incursions into Russia proper by Ukrainian forces. It is being claimed by the Ukrainians that the attackers are Russian partisans who want to overthrow Putin’s government. But a number of the attackers were captured and these turned out to be Ukrainians.
In the last few weeks there has been a significant increase in missile and drone attacks by both sides. Drone attacks on Moscow and missile attacks in Kiev have become a common occurrence. Today the word is the Russians hit the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence headquarters to take out the Ukrainian and Western brains behind the drone attacks on Moscow. Now whether they succeeded in destroying the headquarters or decapitating the military intelligence organization is completely unknown. What is clear is that this is all moving toward an escalated war where more than just the front-line troops are impacted.
The Russians have been concentrating on disrupting the anticipated “spring” offensive. The most notable effort has been a string of missile attacks on large ammunition depots, some apparently so enormous that seismic readings as high as 3.5 on the Richter Scale have been detected. But they’ve also been attacking large troop emplacements.
In the last few weeks, the western press has been hinting that the spring offensive may not provide a significant change in the status quo and that maybe it’s time for a negotiated settlement. But there’s no indication by either side that negotiations are even possible.
So, it looks like sooner or later we’re going to hear about full-scale military operations with the battle tanks and other equipment that the West has donated and with the troops they trained over the last six months. One thing that can be said is that this will be the decisive series of battles of the war. The Ukrainians will be expending the last reserves of their prime manpower. If they are to deal a decisive defeat to the Russians it will have to be now. Otherwise, they will be without the troops and even without the artillery ammunition they would need to continue the war against the larger and better equipped Russian forces.
I expect that the Russians will be hunkering down behind their defensive works and will make the Ukrainians pay very dearly for a frontal assault on these positions. But without a doubt if the Ukrainians go all out to break through these lines the casualties on both sides will be enormous. So, what we will see is a reenactment of the kinds of battles they fought in World War I; massive artillery bombardment and frontal assaults on heavily reinforced positions. But added to this will be massive tank attacks by the Ukrainians and modern missile and drone attacks by both sides.
So, either way this goes the Slavic peoples are about to experience a tragic blood-letting. And essentially the US State Department and the CIA are the authors of this tragedy. It will be interesting what the fruits of this decision will be for us. We handed the Ukrainians tens of billions of dollars’ worth of weaponry. I wonder which of our enemies will be provided with Russian weapons to pay us back. I hate to think of the Mexican drug cartels with several billion dollars’ worth of drones and missiles loose inside of our non-existent southern border. But that’s a distinct possibility. And who will we have to blame but our own government.
As can be seen in the satellite photo below, the Russians (in red) have almost completed the painfully slow process of ejecting the Ukrainians from Bakhmut by reducing the city to rubble via artillery bombardment. The Ukrainians are probably down to a few thousand soldiers with the bulk having already retreated out of Bakhmut to the nearby towns of Chasiv Yar and Ivanivske.
But supposedly the final stronghold is structurally reinforced and may even be hiding a tunnel system out of the city. Previously it was believed that this stronghold of tall apartment buildings was being held by some of the most battle-hardened professionals in the Ukraine forces. Whether that is still the case is unknown. But the fighting at this point may even be harder and bloodier than what came before in this already grueling battle.
The Ukrainians are attempting to hold onto the town until after May 9th which is the anniversary (in Russia) of the end of WWII in Europe. They want to deny Russia the propaganda boost that the date represents in the Russian mind. Looks like it could go either way.
After the end of the Bakhmut conflict it is widely believed that the Ukrainian counterattack will commence. Well, that is if the ground dries out sufficiently for heavy vehicles to move easily through the mud. Apparently the rain for the last couple of weeks has rendered the fields impassable. Hell of a war they’ve (or we’ve) got going there.
The mapping sites following the Ukraine war now show the encirclement of Bakhmut by the Russians reaching a critical stage where the two remaining paved roads that allow re-supply of men and materiel and retreat of vehicles, are under fire control by the Russian positions.
The descriptions I’ve listened to by Ukrainian soldiers of the situation on the ground are horrific. The combat situation consists of small groups of Ukrainians hunkered down in sheltered positions and Russians sending small patrols to draw their fire followed by artillery and mortar fire being used to dislodge or destroy those Ukrainian positions. They say morale is rock bottom. They describe what seems like endless barrages of artillery forcing them to retreat to new positions day in and day out.
“Standard Russian tactics. Little change from WWII other than the range of missiles and artillery. Putin and his commanders care little about casualties. They just bombard everything, including civilians and hospitals and children, then throw masses of infantry and tanks at the target. That wouldn’t work against NATO but Russia carefully picks less capable targets. NATO would hand them their heinies, especially in air supremacy. But Zelinski is short on air power. Russia is corrupt and incompetent but they have a crapload of artillery and conscripts, and numbers can be a power of their own. I would love to be the US commander of a division if Russia tried to invade Poland, but as a Ukranian, not so much.”
When a Democrat organ like Politico announces problems between Washington and Kiev I think you can assume the honeymoon is over and finger-pointing is about to commence.
“Multiple administration officials have begun worrying that Ukraine is expending so much manpower and ammunition in Bakhmut that it could sap their ability to mount a major counteroffensive in the spring.”
The Ukrainians have allowed themselves to be encircled in the ruins of Bakhmut and now it’s believed that at the very least they will have to abandon their heavy weaponry there. And there are real concerns that several thousand men are also trapped there too.
“Meanwhile, an assessment by U.S. intelligence suggested that a “pro-Ukraine group” was responsible for the destruction of the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines last fall, shedding light on a great mystery. The new intelligence, first reported by The New York Times, was short on details but appeared to knock down a theory that Moscow was responsible for sabotaging the pipelines that delivered Russian gas to Europe.”
This assertion seems very odd because it’s assumed that the US military blew up these pipelines. Perhaps this is a fairy tale they’re telling to give the German Chancellor cover over his support of Washington. The destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines was a crippling blow to the German economy.
“There has also been, at times, frustration about Washington’s delivery of weapons to Ukraine. The United States has, by far, sent the most weapons and equipment to the front, but Kyiv has always looked ahead for the next set of supplies. Though most in the administration have been understanding about Kyiv’s desperation to defend itself, there have been grumblings about the constant requests and, at times, Zelenskyy not showing appropriate gratitude, according to two White House officials not authorized to speak publicly about private conversations.”
Regardless of Washington’s intent, the unavailability of artillery rounds in the quantity that would offset the Russians seemingly inexhaustible supply is the sticking point. Russia is grinding down what’s left of the Ukrainian army and even Abrams tanks and Patriot missiles isn’t going to help with this problem. Existential panic is starting to set in. Soon Zelenskyyyyyyyy may begin practicing his impression of Hitler in the bunker. Being a comedian maybe he can make it more entertaining than the version from the movie “Downfall,“
We live in the proverbial “interesting times” of the Chinese saying. Joe Biden twists and wriggles in the slime that is his element, excreting lies into his surroundings as naturally as an octopus discharges ink to confuse its enemies. Woke banks crash, even more woke crypto exchanges are revealed as Ponzi schemes and Biden will declare that unless he can raise taxes by six trillion dollars the United States will descend into fiscal anarchy. I’m curious if Keven McCarthy has the cast iron stones it would take to call his bluff. I guess we’re about to find out.
I read that Saudi Arabia and Iran have decided to bury the hatchet. This rapprochement was brokered by the Chinese and is just another indicator of how the United States is no longer the center of global diplomacy. China and Russia are now routinely consulting with the Indians and the Saudis about trade and energy and the United States is definitely an outsider in these discussions. In fact, in many cases the consultations are about avoiding Washington’s meddling in their affairs.
The Ukrainian war drags on with Russia using cruise and hypersonic missiles to cripple Ukraine’s electrical grid and rail system in advance of the long heralded Ukrainian spring offensive. Now that Russia is at the point of collapsing Ukraine’s hold on the regional rail and road hub at Bakhmut through a glacially slow encirclement action it will be more difficult than ever for the Ukrainians to bring up supplies and troops from the West until sometime in May. The spring thaw will render anything but paved roads completely impassable for tanks and other heavy fighting equipment such as the Bradley vehicles.
Based on what I’ve learned from watching the winter campaign, the Russians are using a very slow advance in conjunction with massive artillery bombardment to pulverize the Ukrainian army one square block at a time. Because of the Ukraine’s policy of contesting every square inch of territory the Russian artillery strategy produces continuous casualties. And with the estimate that western artillery shell stockpiles will be completely depleted by sometime this summer, the Ukrainians will be in a very difficult position with respect to defending many of the larger cities in Donbass such as Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. There has also been speculation around Russia attempting to occupy Odessa and possibly reabsorb the breakaway Moldovan province of Transdniestria.
Many people wonder how this whole thing started. Well, all of this is the State Department’s brain child. Along with the CIA they sponsored the color revolution in Ukraine and funded the buildup of weapons and bunkers that have brought us to the present conflict. And even as they continue to antagonize a country with a massive nuclear arsenal, they consider this outcome a success.
And every day we are treated to the spectacle of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and the rest of the cavalcade of clowns slowly destroying whatever is still left of the United States. Rail cars full of toxins burn in American cities, Mexican drug cartels murder American citizens with impunity, small businesses are folding up and dying by the millions and local communities and their citizens struggle to pay their fuel bills and buy food.
I guess Joe Biden has adopted the same strategy that the Russians are using against the Ukrainians. He will just use a constant bombardment of misery against his own people until they just collapse, roll up and die. It seems like a winning strategy. It’s agonizingly slow and painful but hey what the heck! He has to fill up the year and a half until the next election and there’s no way he can fix all the stuff he’s destroyed. He might as well finish the job and destroy the rest of the country. I suppose if your life has been destroyed and you’ve lost everything, voting won’t be a high priority. So, he won’t even have to do much voter fraud this time around. A real win/win.
Well, today is a chore day. I’ve got to scrape away the inch of snow off the driveways in anticipation of the eight inches due tomorrow night. It won’t take long but it breaks up the morning and gives me an excuse to skip my exercise.
Princess Sack of Potatoes is staying over this weekend and we’ve had an abbreviated game of Dead Pile already. But I’ve begun the pivot to reading and writing. She’s got those workbooks that can be dry erased so we’re working on printing the letters. Later on we’ll conquer the “at” family again. And we’ll use that convicted racist Dr. Seuss to hammer home the words.
I read with dismay that Brad Paisley has recorded as song in honor of Zelenskyyyyyyyy. Oh, well. I remember he had an Obama song too so apparently trying to toe the line is standard operating procedure for him. Too bad. He has some fun songs.
I’ve been following some of the various websites following the Ukraine war. I think the latest theory is that the Russians intend to use the “glacier” model. They’re going to pulverize the Ukraine army but at a glacial rate of advance. Their assault on Bakhmut is proceeding at about one square mile a day. But depending on sources some number of hundreds of Ukrainian casualties a day are occurring. At the current rate in about two weeks the city will be completely surrounded and cut off from resupply. At that point the Ukrainian soldiers inside will be faced with the choice of surrender or extermination.
Apparently the Russians have decided that wearing the Ukrainians down is the correct strategy. Blitzkriegs are no longer possible in this age of real time remote target identification. A column of tanks can be spotted and destroyed from five hundred miles away. The other problem for the Ukrainians is the fact that we’re running out of munitions to give them. By the summer we’ll have used up our entire stockpile of artillery ammunition and the Ukrainians will have to reduce their artillery firing rate to a small fraction of their enemy’s.
Funny world we live in. Looking at the tactics and objectives of their rule I’d have to say that the policies of the present United States more closely resembles that of the Soviet Union than the present day Russian Federation does. Isn’t that a remarkable thing. Well, if we can manage to avoid setting off a thermonuclear war perhaps a time will come when we can pry the United States foreign policy away from the neocons and find a way to coexist with the Russians and the Chinese that allows each nation to follow its interests without a shooting war breaking out every few months. I know it’s far-fetched but an old man can hope can’t he?
Well, hopefully later on I’ll think of something reasonable to write about. Enjoy your Sunday.
Thank you for the polite words on my analysis of this story out of Ukraine. I didn’t notice until this morning that you had reposted it here, which I always appreciate.
A few more thoughts on this as I have had some time to ruminate on this subject:
While I dislike the overused phrase, “As a (fill-in-the-blank with race/religion/career/etc.)” it does have merit for expertise and review of situations when applied correctly. So, as a veteran of OEF/OIF with 20+ years of military and DOD experience, as well as a student of history, the circumstances and scenarios that occur during wartime are of great interest to me. I feel that I can bring unique perspectives to the table in these areas.
The application of labels to the Ukraine-Russia situation as if it is a stark good/evil dichotomy ignores the reality that conflicts between countries are never that simplistic. People who could not find Ukraine on a globe last year are now pontificating as ‘experts’ on foreign policy and geopolitical affairs. While most act as if history began around the time Myspace came online, the historical details around that region are complex and full of nuance to how we find ourselves where we are today. These are VERY tense times that require Realpolitik and deft hands skilled in diplomacy. The current administration has not shown evidence so far that they have these skills.
As I am certain you already know, one caveat to that is to be wary of the number of retired generals and such that are employed by the news networks. CNN, MSNBC, and Fox are notorious for trotting out these empty suits to give what is alleged to be insights that are at an Oracle level. Amazing how more often than not, their opinions aligned with either Administration goals, or the boards they sat on as paid advisers for defense companies.