Tag: Russia

Be Careful, Donald

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Well, Trump is definitely disrupting things.  The question is can he keep the whole machine from shaking itself apart.  Venezuela doesn’t bother me.  That’s not even a real country.  It’s a mafia neighborhood with a money-printing machine in the basement.

Iran on the other hand is a much bigger and more dangerous neighborhood.  Their economy is in tatters and the middle-class is so starved that they dared to face off in the streets against the thugs that Khamenei employs to silence all protestors, with a crow bar.  Trump threw in a threat against the mullahs if they start murdering the protestors in the street.  And that is his place as leader of the “free world” I guess.  But is it just an idle threat?  And will these protests really go anywhere?

The last time protests accomplished anything in Iran was 1979 when the Islamists overthrew the Shah of Iran and brought the Ayatollah Khomeini out of exile to begin the Islamic Republic.  And that kicked off the Islamic Revolution by holding Americans hostage for over a year.  Is it possible that enough Iranians are angry enough to risk torture and death to kick the mullahs out of power and turn Iran back into a modern country?  I guess it’s possible but why now?

I read that inflation in Iran is currently at 43%.  That is definitely getting close to some kind of breaking point.  But standing up to men with machine guns and torture cells takes a lot of guts.  I’m far from convinced that anything will come of the Iranian protests.  Now maybe it will soften up the regime into cutting a deal with the West.  Maybe they’ll agree to end their funding of terrorist groups and in that way begin to have economic sanctions lifted against their oil exports other commercial enterprises.

Now, all of this going on at the same time that Ukraine and Russia are battling to the death may not be a coincidence.  Both Venezuela and Iran are Russian allies and trading partners.  These situations may be an attempt to destabilize the Russian economy.  Sanctions against Russia have been skirted in part by using oil tankers that trade outside of the western countries and this is the same strategy that Iran and Venezuela have used.  Perhaps Trump is ratcheting up the pressure on all of these “shadow fleets” to destabilize the economies of all three of these countries.

And maybe it will work.  Iran is badly hurting and Russia is beginning to suffer from the combination of sanctions and war fatigue.  And Venezuela was a sitting duck for US military and covert attacks.  Maybe Trump will get a trifecta of victories.  He might even get his Nobel Peace Prize.

But I’ll have to say it’s an exceedingly dangerous game he’s playing.  There must be dozens of Iranian sleeper cells that snuck in during Biden’s open border policy.  What if the mullahs grow desperate and decide to spread some chaos in the land of the “Great Satan” before they lose control of their own country?  I get so tired of these places on the map that are nothing but misery for their own people and anyone that gets involved with them.  Donald, be careful.

Kursk and General Thoughts on Ukraine

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Kursk and General Thoughts on Ukraine

The story I heard was that the Russians used a natural gas pipeline to move hundreds of troops several miles behind the Ukrainian lines and the panic this caused in several locations within the Ukrainian Kursk front has disrupted the situation and according to some reports is leading to a rout.

It will take a day or two before reports can be confirmed.  But this may be the beginning of an overall shift in the battlefield situation.  Up until now the words, meatgrinder, attrition and horrendously slow seemed to be the best way to describe the war.  Russia has been making steady but glacially slow progress in capturing the four provinces they’ve declared their own.

The exception was Ukraine’s lightning strike into Russia’s Kursk region that seemed to catch Moscow off balance before stalling out.  Zelensky had hoped that Kursk could be used as a bargaining chip in eventual negotiations with Russia.  But this new situation may be Russia’s determination to put an end to the Kursk front.

If Ukraine retreats from Kursk, I think it might signal a broader collapse of Ukrainian military resolve.  But as I said above it’s too soon to know if some of these reports are Russian bravado over their pipeline strategy.

But even regardless of the impact of this attack it almost surely seems the Russians have the wherewithal to eventually wear down the Ukrainian army into submission.  These are two stubborn enemies and the attrition is mutually destructive.  All Russia has as advantage, is size.  As I’ve said Russia will lose two million men and Ukraine will lose one million and Russia will win.

That’s victory?

From my point of view, Trump will not arbitrate this negotiation.  At best he is forcing the Ukrainians to the bargaining table by refusing continued military aid.

But he has no special insight into the psychology of these two closely related peoples.  This is very, very close to a civil war.  And considering how many Russians live in Ukraine it’s even more personal than that.  The only ones who might be able to negotiate an early end to this war are Vladimir Putin and whoever the Ukrainians pick as their leader.  Is that Zelensky?  I doubt it, but it’s possible.  The reason I doubt it is that Zelensky has rejected much better Russian deals in the past and vowed that he would force Russia out of all Ukrainian lands including Crimea.  I think he would fear for his own safety if he came back with a worse deal that cedes the lands Russia demands.  But whoever it is I believe that the sooner they start talking the better, for Ukraine.  Every day that passes more Russians die and more Ukrainian land passes into Russian control.  Eventually Russia will win on the battle field everything it currently wants through negotiation.  However, as the Russian casualties continue to mount so will their demands.  Eventually it might come to include all Ukraine.

And not all the blame goes to Russia and Ukraine.  Joe Biden and Boris Johnson convinced Zelensky that the Turkish peace talks weren’t as good as what they would get with the help of western weapons and intelligence aid.  This terrible advice was a siren song that seduced the Ukrainians into thinking we knew what we were talking about.  That was a crime.  Because we were stupid or maybe we didn’t care and just wanted to see Russia damaged even if it meant killing every last Ukrainian.  Because we knew or should have known that the Russians weren’t going to let Ukrainians mistreat the Russians living in Ukraine.  They’ve been living there for hundreds of years.  It’s as if California somehow became part of Mexico again and then the Mexicans started to abuse the Americans living there.  Who thinks that the United States would just stand by while our countrymen were abused and killed.  We would do just exactly what the Russians are doing right now.

So that’s my thought.  Ukrainians and Russians know the psychology of their relationship better than anyone else.  The sooner those two sides sit down at the negotiating table the sooner the killing can stop.  Hopefully for good.  Because it’s not as if they’re going to somehow move farther apart.  They better learn how to be neighbors of some sort.

Ukraine – Endless Death

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I’ve probably said too much already about the Ukraine War but it’s one of those horrible things that can’t just go away.  So, ignoring it is just denial.  At this point there are no longer any good options.  Both sides have lost so many men that they feel they must win in order not to appear to have sacrificed a generation of young men for nothing.  But one of them will have to.  And if I were to guess I’d say it’s the Ukrainians that will lose.  But I think it will take another year for them to get to the point of collapse.    By then, the Russians will have lost a million men and the Ukrainians will have lost two million.  At that point the Russians will be so enraged that they’ll inflict crippling conditions and may increase the ceded territory beyond the four provinces they’re currently claiming as theirs.

And most of the blame for this should be laid at the feet of the neo-cons who put together this whole war during the Obama and Biden administrations.  They organized and sponsored the color revolution and armed the Ukrainians and told them that with the aid of the United States and Europe they would not only beat Russia but they would become a part of NATO.  The neo-cons saw this as an opportunity to test out all of their weaponry on a battlefield against the Russians without having to risk many of their own troops or nuclear war.  And they figured it would bleed the Russians dry and then humiliate them in the eyes of their own people and thereby destroy Putin.

Well, they were half right.  We have managed to cause the Russians great harm.  But from where I stand what we’ve accomplished is making them our implacable foes for the next hundred years.  And we’ve thrown them into the arms of China and hastened the end of the US dollar as the global reserve currency.  Well done, neo-cons.

But now Donald Trump is stuck with this mess.  That sideshow he put on with Zelensky in the oval office is part of some plan to get the Ukrainians receptive to a peace treaty.  I assume what he’s setting up is a take it or leave it deal where he negotiates with Putin, and then Zelensky gets his side to accept.  Well, Trump likes to negotiate but I’m not sure how much give there is on the Russian side.  I think the things that are written in stone are:

  • No NATO membership ever.
  • Permanent Ukrainian neutrality.
  • Substantial reduction in Ukraine’s military.
  • Some proviso against the Azov leadership ever holding power again.
  • Complete protection of Russian ethnic institutions (language, religion, etc.) in Ukraine.
  • Substantial territorial transfers to Russia.

I think there is probably some give on exactly how much land will have to be ceded to Russia.  I think the Russians are very tired of the meat grinder that transfers Ukrainian territory to Russia at a rate that translates to just a few square feet per hour but also can be measured in hundreds of deaths per week on each side.  It’s a sickening spectacle.

I don’t envy Trump’s job in trying to negotiate a peace treaty.  Not only does he have Putin and Zelensky to reckon with but he also has that pack of idiots in Europe.  The clown car filled with all the globalist “leaders” from Britain, France, Germany and all the rest of those useless countries will be howling and shrieking and demanding that we provide enough arms and money to continue the war until the last Ukrainian is dead.  If he does manage to negotiate an end to the war, he shouldn’t just get a Nobel Peace Prize they should also take back the one they gave to Obama.

But I’m not so certain anything but time will end this war.  If (when) the Ukrainians are forced to capitulate the outrage they will experience because of the brutal conditions of surrender will probably result in a witch hunt for the leaders who were responsible for this debacle.  I’m guessing that if Zelensky doesn’t have a bunker in a friendly nation that won’t extradite him he’s not going to live much beyond the end of the war.

And there will be other consequences of this brutal war.  What’s left of Ukraine will be destabilized and there are hints of Hungary, Poland and Romania looking to make territorial claims based on ethnic enclaves that were long ago added to Ukraine.  All in all, the fallout from this brilliant geopolitical catastrophe threatens to haunt the world long after we’re all dead.  Once again, well done, neo-cons.

Super Power Relations

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Glenn W sent an email with a link to a podcast where Jeff Nyquist and Alex Benesch discuss how Donald Trump’s election impacts the global power struggle between the United States, Russia and China (link below).

https://youtu.be/OOiVNxt9I0M?si=bUOHY_mfan-wEOGu

It’s an analysis of the Chinese strategy to undermine Trump’s domestic political coalition.  There is also discussion of how Trump’s handling of the Ukraine war will impact Chinese/Russian relations.

Thank you, Glenn for passing this along.  It’s interesting to know how much the Chinese think about and plan to undermine the American domestic political situation.  And if the CIA were any good at their job, they’d have all of this intel available for Trump in a useful and convenient form as soon as it is available.  But, of course, they’re so busy trying to undermine him themselves that they can’t get around to something like that.

Watching the video made me think about how American domestic politics is viewed in such different places as Putin’s Russia and Xi’s China.

But it didn’t change my belief that almost all the problem in our country and most of the problems in the world are a result of the dysfunctional and even destructive system and culture that has taken hold of our country and by extension is being imposed on the rest of the world.  The adoption of a culture that celebrates above all else aberrant sexual identities and practices, but also emphasizes the vilification of European peoples and cultures and the need to eliminate their identity from their own countries, is singlehandedly bringing about the destruction of Western civilization.

I believe that most of the problems in this country stem from these two cultural projects of the Left.  And I think if these programs are eliminated it will cure most of the social dysfunction, we see around us today.

And that is why I believe that if Trump continues on with his program to eliminate things like the recognition of multiple “genders” and DEI and other affirmative action programs from the US federal government he will single-handedly solve the majority of societal ills that we find ourselves engulfed by.

Now as far as foreign policy goes, I see a clear linkage between the war in Ukraine and these same cultural dysfunctions.  Russia is a pariah for the Left because it eschews the LGBTQ movement absolutely and refuses to accept the “white shame” culture within its borders.  Whereas Ukraine was willing to accept the rainbow flag as the price it paid to get CIA and State Department funding for its color revolution.  And you can see a similar dynamic in Hungary where Orban refused to bend the knee to the homosexual mandate and so he also became an enemy of the left.  They tried to overthrow him in a recent election, pouring in all kinds of USAID money into the effort.  But he won and now he’ll benefit from Trump’s reform of the State Department and foreign relations in general.

It was heartening to see JD Vance meet with the AfD candidates for parliament in Germany and confront the government there with their refusal to stem immigration and their anti-free speech polices and attitudes.  It’s this kind of confidence in the advantages of a free and populist society that will advance our point of view in many places.

And that brings me to the question of what I think American policy should be toward the powerful countries like China and Russia.  We should be neither fearful of nor bellicose toward them.  The United States has ample enough stockpiles of nuclear tipped ICBMs to ensure that neither Russia nor China will attack us or our allies.  But by the same token, what business have we rattling sabers at Putin or Xi?  Our neocons in the State Department initiated the color revolution in Ukraine and then provided massive military aid and convinced the Ukrainians that the Russians would just capitulate to Ukraine joining NATO.  Up until Obama’s administration it was understood that attempting to bring Ukraine into NATO would be crossing a glowing red line that Putin would retaliate against.  So, they did it anyway and he invaded.  Now he’s been bloodied by our Ukrainian proxies using our most sophisticated weapons systems and so we’ve turned this into a war of attrition where Russia will lose a million men and Ukraine will lose two million men and a third of their country and we’ve possibly made the Russians our bitterest enemies for generations to come.  And they’ve embraced China because of it.

If Trump can figure out a way to blunt some of this damage, he should get a Nobel Peace Prize for sure.  But in general, I hope Trump’s foreign policy is guided by the precept that our foreign policy should be primarily concerned with improving the security and prosperity of the American people.  That’s it.  We’re not out to spread democracy and we’re not trying to save the world.  Climate Change and Ending World Hunger are not our priorities.  Evicting the illegal aliens and bringing the price of a dozen eggs down are.  So that explains my myopic vision of foreign policy.  If the Chinese try to get involved in undermining the Trump voter coalition, I’m guessing they’ll be a lot less effective than the Democrats are.  The Left knows the American lingo better and they’re much better liars than the Chinese are.

So, Donald Trump, just keep pummeling the Left and everything else will follow along like a master plan.

Guest Contributor – Milo Mindbender – 28SEP2024 – Hot Spots

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Democrats policy is to screw things up and then point at the Republican co-conspirators and blame them for everything.
We have no business in the Ukraine, only by offering NATO statehood which under different presidents was not an option did we intentionally provoke a response from Russia. We almost went to war in ’62 over the weaponization of Cuba, and there is no land connection to the US. NATO statehood would allow for weaponization of a physically attached neighboring state, similar to allowing the arming up of Baja California, and expecting no response from the US.
The “wag the dog” scenario created by the MIC, and the state department to justify more expenditures on unneeded toys that have the newest “Gee, Wow” factor, and donors in your district co-opt many who enter the Swamp, there is no immunity to the corruption created in DC. It eats to the bone on almost everyone who succumbs to the lure of power.
Regarding the Israeli situation, I liked the simple elegance of arming the Hezbollah, Hamas supply chain with weaponized pagers. It was utterly ruthless, laser targeted, and minimally damaging collaterally. If you are forced into a defensive war you protect yourself from a 3 way attack, cut the heads off the snakes and let the bodies wither from neglect. Somebody did their job accurately, and correctly. Bravo Zulu from my viewfinder. I have no dog in the fight against Israel, and believe the Palestinians are a self inflicted injury upon themselves, they can not seek refugee status with any of their neighbors because they try to overthrow and disrupt anyplace they infest. They screwed up on Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria when they were still possibly able to claim aggrieved status, now it’s sorta expected that they always bite the hand that feeds them.
They voted to be administered by terrorists, deal with it.

 

Update:

War Pig commented:

Israel can handle Hamas and Hezbolla. If Iran sends their special forces that may escalate things. If Iran tosses a nuke Israel can obliterate them in return. And if Israel has to throw nukes, Iran won’t be the only target, so the other naughty actors in the region will tamp Iran’s desires that way. Israel seems to have pretty good infiltration or Iran’s military operations.

If the Iranians want to use their navy to make trouble in the gulf, they can look back to 1988 when our navy’s Praying Mantis operation sank half of their navy in one union shift. Imagine what our navy could do to theirs now?

Lawn Football

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I’ve got nothing to write about tonight.  I was on a long errand today and it kept me from looking around or thinking much.  About the only thing I did do was read some of the war headlines.  The Russians continue their slow relentless pummeling of Ukraine.  Currently they’ve cut off the southeastern city of Vuhledar (or Ugledar to the Russians.  These Slavic languages are challenging for a poor Westerner).  And after pounding it with artillery until it looks like the dark side of the Moon, they’ve offered the 1,500 defenders a window of opportunity to surrender.

The Ukrainians (or the Americans) have destroyed several very large ammunition bunkers that were very deep into Russian territory with advanced long-range missile technology.  The story is that the missiles came from the Baltic states.  Russia responded by saying if they are attacked by advanced NATO technology they will respond with up to and including nuclear weapons to even the score.

And today the Israelis pounded the underground headquarters of Hezbollah trying to kill Nasrallah their leader.  It’s probable that Hezbollah and Iran are weighing their options for retaliation.  Some people are saying that Israel is deliberately attempting to provoke Iran into a major attack to draw the United States into a larger war.

Well, where does that leave us?  Is Biden (or whoever actually calls the shots) trying to start a war with Russia and/or Iran?  Are some factions in the government (CIA?  State Department?)  trying to start WW III?  Are other groups (the Pentagon?) trying to prevent it?  Is this wag the dog for the election or is this really start a war for the election?  I have to confess I can’t figure it out.

Obviously, I’m interested, but for the life of me I can’t figure out if this helps Harris or Trump.  All I do know is that there is a more than negligible chance that they will trigger at least a limited nuclear exchange.  Now how crazy is that.  After avoiding nuclear war for eighty years when madmen like Stalin and Mao had their hands on the trigger, we’ll be shepherded into nuclear Armageddon by Dementia Joe Biden and Kamala “Cackles” Harris in order to try and make the country forget just how badly they’ve run the country for the last four years.  It just seems like a terrible joke to play on a country that used to be somewhat sensible and well-run.  The Democrats always claimed that a psychotic Republican, like they pretended Nixon and Reagan and Trump were, would be the one who goaded the Russians into a nuclear exchange because of “cowboy” military posturing.  Instead, the neocons in the State Department pushing their color revolution template into Ukraine seem to have crossed a line in the sand that even a moderate like Putin couldn’t ignore.

Well, what can you do?  All these things are in the hands of the Democrats for at least the next four months and if they imagine that brinksmanship is to their advantage then brinksmanship it will be.  I just didn’t have anything else to think about tonight so I thought about this.

Kamala Harris with the nuclear football.  Might as well hand it over to the guy who cuts the lawn.  If he can survive operating power tools, he’s gotta be smarter than her.

Zelensky Admits Land May Be Traded for Peace

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For the first time Zelensky admits that he may run a referendum to see if Ukrainians are willing to trade land for peace.

“Volodymyr Zelensky has said that territorial concessions to end the war started by Vladimir Putin would require the backing of a referendum in Ukraine.

However, the Ukrainian president told French media that such a move “is not the best option because we are dealing with Putin and it will be a victory for him if he takes part of our territory.””

So Zelensky is preparing the people for the reality of surrender.  It’s not like he has much choice.  The question I have is whether they will hand over any of the land they currently still hold.  I think they might have to.

Kiev and NATO Begin Preparing the West for Eventual Capitulation

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All of the various media outlets in the West are beginning to admit that not only are the Russians making significant gains along the length of the war front but that the size of the Russian army is beginning to overwhelm the ability of the Ukrainian armed forces to hold it back.

 

As War Gets Bleaker, More Ukrainians Appear Open to a Peace Deal

“The Gloomy Ukraine Reality That NATO Insiders Only Want to Talk About Anonymously”

“In Brussels, almost no one expects Ukraine to regain its lost areas. Only nobody wants to talk about it – at least officially. WELT has spoken to a number of insiders who justify their bleak outlook with a fact that Europe itself is indebted to.”

Russia has been ramping up the number of soldiers it fields while the Ukrainians have hit a wall.  Recruitment is being resisted by flight, concealment and lately by attacks on the recruiters.  One tactic being used is to burn the vehicles that the recruiters use as they travel around the country, dragging “recruits” out of their homes.

Russia opened up a new front in the north (Kharkiv) that many believe is a feint to draw away resources from the main areas of advance in the east.

All along the Donetsk front slow but steady advance has been the experience ever since the breakthrough at Avdiivka in the spring.  Of late the exhaustion of the Ukrainian soldiers is beginning to show.  It will probably accelerate as the retreat moves into areas that do not have the extensive tunnels and reinforced bunkers that were provided in places like Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar.

Of course nothing is assured in war but it seems increasingly likely that Kiev will be looking for a peace settlement after November.

The Western Alliance Begins to Plan for the Ukraine’s Collapse

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Politico published an article that confirms that Ukraine admits that the Russian offensive will force the Ukrainians to yield large swaths of their country wherever the assault comes.

“Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing

According to high-ranking Ukrainian officers, the military picture is grim and Russian generals could find success wherever they decide to focus their upcoming offensive.

Essentially, everything now depends on where Russia will decide to target its strength in an offensive that’s expected to launch this summer. In a pre-offensive pummeling — stretching from Kharkiv and Sumy in the north to Odesa in the south — Russia’s missile and drone strikes have widely surged in recent weeks, targeting infrastructure and making it hard to guess where it will mount its major push.

And according to high-ranking Ukrainian military officers who served under General Valery Zaluzhny — the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces until he was replaced in February — the military picture is grim.”

And there don’t seem to be any optimistic dissenting opinions either

“There’s nothing that can help Ukraine now because there are no serious technologies able to compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops Russia is likely to hurl at us. We don’t have those technologies, and the West doesn’t have them as well in sufficient numbers,” one of the top-ranking military sources told POLITICO.

“Don’t believe the hype about them (the Russians) just throwing troops into the meat grinder to be slaughtered,” he added. “They do that too, of course — maximizing even more the impact of their superior numbers — but they also learn and refine.””

The latest rumors are that the West is advising Ukraine to re-brand itself as a smaller country where the western areas are ceded to Poland and the eastern to Russia.  These sound like desperate attempts to make disaster appear as strategy.  What a horrible blunder the Ukrainians made listening to Washington.

Civilizational Identity

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I was listening to the ZMan today and he was talking about Russia which is an interesting topic but the thing that got me thinking was the end of the hour where he discussed a type of society not based on ideology or even national identity but instead based on civilizational commonality.  So instead of talking about democracy or communism or British or French nationality we think about the civilization we adhere to.  So, countries with nationalities as different as Arabs, Persians, Afghans and Berbers all recognize a civilization based on the traditional Moslem world view.  And similarly, parts of the world with a long history of common culture like medieval Europe or Latin America have a similar ability to interact naturally under the same system.

Now the ZMan said an interesting thing.  He said North America was such a place.  It was different from a national identity such as exists in European countries but rather is a sort of generic society based on the common customs and stable institutions that exist in both Canada and the United States.  His point was that the liberal democratic system in place in the United States was not the only type of governance that could work here.  In fact, in a sense it really isn’t a democratic system currently.  But it masquerades as one.  Another system that provided continuity for most of the services and functions of modern life would serve just as well, maybe better.  After all, the current system is actively disrupting things like families, religion and communities.

He was comparing this situation with what exists in Russia which is a society that incorporates about 20% non-Russian peoples in its society but manages to maintain the Russian cultural and civil activities for the whole of the society.  The idea was that a similar condition could exist here based on the common culture that currently exists but without the liberal democracy running things.

Well, all of that is fine.  But I think what’s going on is already a civilizational system.  The order that runs North America is also the one that runs Europe.  The Global American Empire is a civilization.  It intends to infiltrate all areas of the globe and it has a very definite culture and ethos.  And it is doing a very thorough job of indoctrinating people of European descent and also the people that live with them in the countries where they are in control.  So, clawing control away from the people currently controlling the empire is much, much harder to do than to say.

Now maybe certain areas have a culture that can successfully resist infiltration.  Sub-Saharan Africa seems to be one and the Moslem world has so far been another.  But Europeans and their descendants are absorbed by it effortlessly.  If some competing culture is going to wrench away the Left’s grip on America it will require a call to action that can motivate the younger generations out of their lethargy.  I have to admit I can’t imagine how this can be done other than to say that it will require a charismatic man of their own generation to come forward and inspire their imaginations with a vision of the future that overshadows the woke orthodoxy of self-hate and decline.

But I see no indication that anyone like that exists or might even appear.  But we are living in an age where things seem to be coming to a head.  Eventually the times will make the man.

 

“Surely some revelation is at hand;

Surely the Second Coming is at hand.”

 

“The darkness drops again; but now I know  

That twenty centuries of stony sleep

Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,  

And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,  

Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?”