Ed Kilgore has re-evaluated the chances of Democrats dodging the Mid-Term curse and he’s not very hopeful. What I found interesting was the discussion about the polls
“If you consider the polls from the outlets that were most accurate in 2020, the mixed prospects for the GOP look even better. Of the pollsters doing abundant 2022 public-survey work, Trafalgar Group was the most accurate in 2020 per FiveThirtyEight. Yes, Trafalgar has a well-deserved reputation for serving up results that please Republicans. But what if they are as right this year as they were two years ago? They show a lot of the GOP candidates already written off by most analysts as being still viable. Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters? Down by just two points, according to Trafalgar Group. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania? Ditto. The wildly extremist Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastrioni? Him too. All three of these alleged “losers” are within the margin of error in Trafalgar Group polls, which also show half-forgotten Minnesota Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott Jensen within three points of incumbent Tim Walz, left-for-dead Michigan Republican gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon within four points of incumbent Gretchen Whitmer, and little-discussed Colorado Republican Senate candidate Joe O’Dea within five points of incumbent Michael Bennett.
Oh … and Trafalgar Group also shows Republicans with a six-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot.”
And as far as the importance of abortion as an election issue this statement was very telling:
“A September 2022 NBC News poll bluntly asked voters whether a candidate’s position on “dealing with the cost of living” or on “the abortion issue” would most affect their choice. “Cost of living” was deemed more important by a 59-37 margin. And in rankings of the most important issue, NBC found that crime barely trails abortion as a voter concern (both ranking well below “jobs and the economy” and “cost of living”). The poll gave Republicans a 23-point advantage on crime and a 19-point advantage on the economy. Democrats do have a 22-point advantage on abortion policy, but it’s all in the mix.”
Mr. Kilgore tried to leave some room for optimism but you could tell his heart wasn’t in it. So unless the voter fraud is industrial strength as it was in 2020 it looks like the Congress may flip to the republicans in November.
Well, we’ll see.