Like the other readers of this blog I have been watching our culture slowly disintegrate over my lifetime. I am certain that the oligarchs have ran many simulations (remember the Club of Rome?) and are certain that they have the winning hand. That being said I think they have made a very basic logic error which is human beings have agency. Anyone who has a science or engineering background usually views every process as being a mix deterministic or random, it’s drilled into us. However I don’t believe that applies to human beings who have agency. A steel beam doesn’t evaluate the torsion being applied to it and decide how to react but a person does evaluate the forces being applied to him and reasons about how he should react. I think that’s why we constantly hear about how those stupid so-and-sos didn’t do the “rational” thing. Actually they did, it’s your model that’s stupid.
Time will tell but I don’t think the “smartest guys in the room” really know very much.
I agree with your last opinion. I hope we are both right.