Author: photog

Now that the Battle of Bakhmut is over everyone is wondering what the next step will be in this war.  Currently there have been incursions into Russia proper by Ukrainian forces.  It is being claimed by the Ukrainians that the attackers are Russian partisans who want to overthrow Putin’s government.  But a number of the attackers were captured and these turned out to be Ukrainians.

In the last few weeks there has been a significant increase in missile and drone attacks by both sides.  Drone attacks on Moscow and missile attacks in Kiev have become a common occurrence.  Today the word is the Russians hit the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence headquarters to take out the Ukrainian and Western brains behind the drone attacks on Moscow.  Now whether they succeeded in destroying the headquarters or decapitating the military intelligence organization is completely unknown.  What is clear is that this is all moving toward an escalated war where more than just the front-line troops are impacted.

The Russians have been concentrating on disrupting the anticipated “spring” offensive.  The most notable effort has been a string of missile attacks on large ammunition depots, some apparently so enormous that seismic readings as high as 3.5 on the Richter Scale have been detected.  But they’ve also been attacking large troop emplacements.

In the last few weeks, the western press has been hinting that the spring offensive may not provide a significant change in the status quo and that maybe it’s time for a negotiated settlement.  But there’s no indication by either side that negotiations are even possible.

So, it looks like sooner or later we’re going to hear about full-scale military operations with the battle tanks and other equipment that the West has donated and with the troops they trained over the last six months.  One thing that can be said is that this will be the decisive series of battles of the war.  The Ukrainians will be expending the last reserves of their prime manpower.  If they are to deal a decisive defeat to the Russians it will have to be now.  Otherwise, they will be without the troops and even without the artillery ammunition they would need to continue the war against the larger and better equipped Russian forces.

I expect that the Russians will be hunkering down behind their defensive works and will make the Ukrainians pay very dearly for a frontal assault on these positions.  But without a doubt if the Ukrainians go all out to break through these lines the casualties on both sides will be enormous.  So, what we will see is a reenactment of the kinds of battles they fought in World War I; massive artillery bombardment and frontal assaults on heavily reinforced positions.  But added to this will be massive tank attacks by the Ukrainians and modern missile and drone attacks by both sides.

So, either way this goes the Slavic peoples are about to experience a tragic blood-letting.  And essentially the US State Department and the CIA are the authors of this tragedy.  It will be interesting what the fruits of this decision will be for us.  We handed the Ukrainians tens of billions of dollars’ worth of weaponry.  I wonder which of our enemies will be provided with Russian weapons to pay us back.  I hate to think of the Mexican drug cartels with several billion dollars’ worth of drones and missiles loose inside of our non-existent southern border.  But that’s a distinct possibility.  And who will we have to blame but our own government.