Author: photog

JM – The world is on the verge of new and great changes, Mr. Scrooge.  Some of them, of necessity, will be violent. Do you agree?

ES – Oh, l think the world is becoming a very hard and cruel place, Mr. Marley.  One must steel oneself to survive it.  Not be crushed under with the weak and the infirm.

JM – l think we have many things in common, Mr. Scrooge.

ES – l hope so, Mr. Marley.

Even in the 1820s the Industrial Revolution was dislocating people from their familiar environment.  A blacksmith now had to compete with a factory that could mass produce metal artifacts.  And textile mills were replacing hand-made garments to an astonishing degree.  These changes caused huge dislocations in the business world and also for craftsmen who previously could depend on their skills to earn a good living.

And now two hundred years later the breadth and scale of the tech revolution threatens to completely remake the commercial landscape again.  Globalization threatens the very existence of industries in the First World as manufacturing and even service industries are completely transferred to developing nations in Asia.

So, what does the future portend?  Well, we are reaching a point where rapacious capitalism has begun to undermine the existence of the middle class in both America and Europe.  What remains to be seen is whether national governments will step in to protect their citizens from impoverishment.  I think we’ve seen the beginning of this in the United States where Trump represents middle- and working-class interests with a sort of populism that questions the rights of the corporations to off-shore their manufacturing activities and now even their other employment opportunities.  It’s possible Trump will be successful in forcing the return of jobs for Americans.

But even if he is, the world will continue to change and evolve in response to the capabilities that advanced automation has provided and will continue to innovate at.  One of the challenges that everyone will need to recognize is that we’re all facing enormous competition that previously didn’t exist and an entrepreneurial instinct will have to be developed to allow people to compete with the lowest common denominator reality around us.  We’ll all have to get a lot smarter about how we find business opportunities and retain them.

Maybe a part of this change will be a strategy to capture local business.  After all those cheap knock-offs from China are often shipped by slow boat to keep their cost down.  If that means weeks of delay, a local metal shop could capture business by being able to provide same day delivery for some mission critical parts for a manufacturing business.

And even if AI allows foreign companies to compete in information sectors of the economy it is still the case that AI is far from fool-proof and still requires human oversight to clean up the inaccurate and inept mistakes that seem built into the machines.  And in those oversight positions foreign unfamiliarity with American culture could represent the disadvantage that allows local businesses to excel.

So, this is all a long-winded way of saying Americans are going to have to use all means at their disposal to survive the changes going on.  Government can certainly be part of the solution but we also have to recognize that we no longer have a guarantee of affluence.  We’re going to need to work harder and with our heads.