photopia

photog Current Events, My Fiction, photog's Corner, Science Fiction / Fantasy , , , ,

“It has been said that history repeats itself. This is perhaps not quite correct; it merely rhymes.”

Theodor Reik

 

When I think about what is going on in the world, I have to wonder whether the nonsense that we see all around us can go on forever.  Now it goes without saying that human folly is a tapestry that envelops all of us in a pattern that generates pain, fear, violence and death at a prodigious rate.  And that there has never been a full century in history when the majority of human beings lived in peace and happiness.

And this isn’t anything surprising.  This is just what human beings do.  We’ve always lived in a state of wary hostility even when we were nothing but small family groups living around a campfire to keep the cave bears and sabretooth tigers at bay.  We’re not peaceful creatures.  We may live now in enormous groupings measured in the millions and even billions of individuals but at all times and in all places, we seem to end up at each other’s throats.  But, does this have to be?  Could it be possible for humans to organize themselves into groups that interact in ways that lead to long term and abiding cohesion and satisfying cooperation?

The track record for utopian communities is definitely poor.  Some of the religious groups have thrived and shown some ability to cooperate in many community endeavors but this is a small minority of the human race.  And even they can’t completely eliminate anti-social behavior.  Currently, communities that live in affluent areas and support a robust police presence and a conservative judicial philosophy seem to do the best at creating a workable human environment.  But as we’ve seen since 2020 the forces of chaos can unleash barbarism even in the most affluent areas of the country.

But what if technology can provide a system to guarantee both social cohesion and material security?  We’re seeing the dystopic version of this in the Chinese system of social control called the “Social Credit System.”  Here those who don’t follow the rules are blacklisted and denied access to various important social advantages like good schools and better neighborhoods.  But think of the opposite.  Imagine a multitude of organizations that figure out ways to find compatible people and build social systems that bind them together and allow them to thrive.  I imagine these as completely voluntary associations.  And if someone doesn’t work out, they get the equity that they put into the system and are assisted to find another association where they would fit better.  But such an ejection would be considered a failure by the organization, which would use the most advanced research to analyze personalities before candidates are accepted into the association.

In the next installment I’ll discuss what facets of life would and wouldn’t be included in these organizations.  And I’ll talk about what I think are the human realities that make something like this extremely difficult to pull off outside of a science fiction story.

Too Soon for Cabin Fever

photog Current Events, Life in Dunwich, My Fiction, photog's Corner, Photography , , , ,

Too many irons in the fire.  More and more “stuff” dumped in front of me to trip over.  Boredom, frustration, ennui, blah, blah, blah.  Okay, whatever.

So, I’m trying to concentrate on the important stuff.  I got my cover artist signed up.  He needs some information from me and I’m working to answer the questions.  I’m still waiting for some answers from the experts on small stuff and big stuff that has to be decided (when, how and how much).

And I’m looking to sell off a bunch of lenses I don’t use much and exchange them for that new 100mm f/2.8 macro lens from Sony.  It’ll be good to move out a bunch of stuff that’s just sitting around and concentrate on what I like to play around with.  I’ll probably also buy a macro rail and maybe some doo-dads that will let me experiment with tilt shift and other technical adjustments.  I was watching a video from a guy in England who does a lot of product work.  You know, pictures of corn flakes boxes and shampoo bottles.  He was demonstrating his technical camera.  It’s a digital “back” attached to a bellows with a lens on the other side attached to a support that allowed for all kinds of motion for the lens; tilt and shift and any kind of motion relative to the digital back.  In addition, the digital back can tilt and shift also.  This allows the image formed by the lens to strike the sensor either straight on or at any angle desired.  Now I think this is really great.  I’d love to have this capability.  But the numbers being thrown around for a medium format digital back and the other components runs into the tens of thousands of dollars (well, pounds for that Brit).

But it occurred to me that with a little ingenuity and a slight downgrade in kit (e.g., a full frame camera like my Sony A7IV instead of a medium format back) I might be able to get almost the same effects for very short money.  And since the winter is beginning to bite into my soul (we had the first noticeable snow cover this morning) this would be a marvelous time to distract myself from the realities of Dunwich in the winter.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be boring work days.  Saturday is another family party (great!).  A week from Tuesday will be a day of tedium not to be imagined and then Thursday is Thanksgiving.  I guess you must take the good with the bad.  But I’m not very patient.  Camera Girl is much better at that sort of thing.  She was raised to be hard-working and dependable.  I, on the other hand, am lazy, easily bored and unreliable.  I like to think this is because I am like my idol; Wiley Coyote, a super genius.  I like the way that sounds, WILEY COYOTE, SUPER GENIUS!!!!!!

I’d better cut this short.  It’s becoming too much like me talking to myself and that’s not healthy for anyone.  It’s too close to the scene where Wendy Torrance starts reading the manuscript that Jack has been working on and finds that it’s hundreds of pages of text that consists of variations on the sentence, “All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.”  It’s just too early in the winter to start getting cabin fever.

18NOV2025 – Quote of the Day

photog Quote of the Day ,

If this bill passes, it is my deliberate opinion that it is virtually a dissolution of the Union; that it will free the States from their moral obligation; and, as it will be the right of all, so it will be the duty of some, definitely to prepare for a separation,—amicably if they can, violently if they must.

Regarding the admission of Orleans Territory as a U.S. State. Abridged Cong. Debates, Jan. 14, 1811. Vol. iv. p. 327. This was later famously paraphrased by Henry Clay: The gentleman [Mr. Quincy] cannot have forgotten his own sentiment, uttered even on the floor of this House, “Peaceably if we can, forcibly if we must.” Speech, Jan. 8, 1813.

Josiah Quincy III

Guest Contributor – Tregonsee – 17NOV2025 – Handicapping a Civil War

photog Current Events, Guest Contributors , , ,

The thought of a civil war is VERY messy. My (limited) familiarity is that I’d say 80% of the enlisted tend to be from the poorer (bottom 3-4) deciles of the population. The upper enlisted officers tend to come from families that have been in the services for a long time. They are more from the red/purple areas than deep blue. Officer Corp is more split(again from my very limited experience), Flag officers are VERY political and Obama’s purge of the flag ranks (as well as Col. ready to promote) means there is a very blue tinge at the top. Lower rank officers likely come from families that have traditions of service and come from more traditionally conservative backgrounds as the militery calling is pooh poohed by the Left. Pretty sure neither red nor blue troops would kill civilians without severe provocation. Most would also not participate in massive disarmament of citizens. I think the latter ends up with mutinies and fragging of officers, with enlisted disappearing off into the bush. That said, the Left has its own shock troops in the armed bits and bobs of Antifa/Pantifa and other similar groups. They are far less morally bound than the members of the armed services. Would the National Guard and LEO stand back and let them go at it? Beats me, I’m not eager to find out.

As for strategic resources, the blue states have an issue. I think all the missile bases, plus Whitman AFB (B2, soon B21) are in red states). The Atlantic Boomer base is in a red state (no boomers run out of Groton CT any more), Pacific Boomer base is at Bremerton WA but would that matter? Boomers are odd they really try hard to stay at sea for long periods before switching crews. In a Red/Blue divorce, the Reds end up with most of the fixed ( Missile assets). I doubt the Red would disarm, given the Ukraine precedent.

Honestly any scenario I see tends to be rife with insurgencies. Blue in the more rural parts of Red would have massive hit and run attacks on them by light arms. Red going into citified areas will have Viet Cong like insurgents blending into the populous (with either the populous supporting them or by threatening the populous.

I just can’t create an Arisian like vision of the cosmic all on this one. If I were using the old magic 8 ball I’d be getting “Better ask again” or “Reply Hazy, try again”. The only thing I can say is I deeply doubt your model of a looser coalition, it seems very doubtful. Much of the Blue side views this as almost a theological/eschatological vision. There are as likely to live and let live as the 16th-century Spanish Inquisition. Certainly, there are parts of them that don’t believe (all) their nonsense. But those parts know that if they divert from the path, they are likely to find an ice pick in their forehead like a good menshivik.

Guest Contributor – Ed Brault – 17NOV2025 – RAH on “Bread and Circuses”

photog Current Events, Guest Contributors , , , ,

“The America of my time line is a laboratory example of what can happen to democracies, what has eventually happened to all perfect democracies throughout all histories. A perfect democracy, a ‘warm body’ democracy in which every adult may vote and all votes count equally, has no internal feedback for self-correction. It depends solely on the wisdom and self-restraint of citizens… which is opposed by the folly and lack of self-restraint of other citizens. What is supposed to happen in a democracy is that each sovereign citizen will always vote in the public interest for the safety and welfare of all. But what does happen is that he votes his own self-interest as he sees it… which for the majority translates as ‘Bread and Circuses.’
‘Bread and Circuses’ is the cancer of democracy, the fatal disease for which there is no cure. Democracy often works beautifully at first. But once a state extends the franchise to every warm body, be he producer or parasite, that day marks the beginning of the end of the state. For when the plebs discover that they can vote themselves bread and circuses without limit and that the productive members of the body politic cannot stop them, they will do so, until the state bleeds to death, or in its weakened condition the state succumbs to an invader—the barbarians enter Rome.”― Robert A. Heinlein

Reading the National Tea-Leaves

photog Current Events , ,

I think the experience of the last several decades of American politics has made it clear that there are two completely different and, in some ways, diametrically opposed cultures existing within this country.  And it’s also clear to me that they cannot coexist.  How this will play out is not obvious.  I can think of a few scenarios as to how this will evolve but which one will actually happen is unknown to me.

First, I guess is the possibility that the status quo will go on forever.  I find this scenario the least likely.  The amount of psychological damage being done to the country is extreme and anger that is starting to build up is starting to break out into acts of extreme violence.  Look at what’s happening with psychotic individuals committing mass murders just to protest against political and social conditions.  It seems to me that of its own accord the current situation will fall apart in a very few years.

The second possibility is that the two sides break into open hostilities.  I think this is a likely short-term result.  The range of hostilities can stretch from low level guerilla activities all the way up to organized warfare on a national scale.  And it can also wax and wane.  I think that warfare of whatever type is also a temporary situation.  I think one way it could be settled would be for an agreement to loosen the terms of the federal government to allow both sides to control life within their own jurisdictions.  So, the red states will be red and the blue states will be blue.  So, by allowing the two sides to live the way they want on their home turf, it permits them to allow for the not-so United States to continue as an entity.

Another outcome would be a split of the United States into two separate countries.  And of course, there would be a national divorce that allowed for the divvying up of the family assets.  So, both sides would get a certain number of thermonuclear warheads and nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers and maybe someone would win a coin toss and get to keep the name United States and the US Dollar and Washington DC (although I think the red states will be happy to part with that last item).

Now there is one other outcome that I haven’t listed.  And that is where one side or the other wins a complete victory on the battle field and forces the losing side to live under the conditions that the winning side dictates.  And to be honest I don’t think that for both sides would want that outcome.  If the red states won an all-out war, I think they would use the victory to force a separation into two states.  Of course, being on the winning side, I could imagine it would be a division that favored their side pretty generously but, in any case, I think they would be glad to extricate themselves from the union with the blue states.  On the other hand, I think the blue states do want to dominate the red states and if they won a military victory, they would use the situation to force their ideology on the red states.

So, this is a pretty bleak prognosis.  But I think it is accurate.  I guess the most optimistic scenario is that after a very brief and relatively minor war the two sides decide to stay together under a looser confederation.  This is actually my hope.  What do you think?