Tag: asteroid

It’s Just a Thought

photog Current Events, Science

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is not going to hit Earth.  Yay?  It’s also not going to hit the Moon either.  Yay?  Apparently, this celestial rock which is 200 ft in length and weighs about 310,000 tons will be sliding by our orbit in a few years and will miss the moon by a couple of thousand miles.  Apparently, there are now safeguards in place to check if any known asteroids have the potential to hit Earth and also evaluate what potential damage they could do.

A2024 YR4 is considered a city killer.  It has been estimated that its impact would be the equivalent of 7.7 megatons of trinitrotoluene (TNT) detonating, which is a pretty big explosion.  Once they refined their calculations, they became convinced that it would miss Earth by a good large margin.  When a lunar impact looked more likely they began fussing because they speculated that an explosion on the Moon would throw up a lot of debris and it might destroy many satellites around Earth.  But when they used the James Webb telescope and measured the orbit more carefully even this scenario was ruled out.  It’s not going to hit anything.

The YouTube video author concluded that the investigation and analysis of the asteroid’s trajectory was a major victory for science and global cooperation.  Well, maybe.  But up until someone started checking the paths of asteroids, haven’t we been at this risk basically forever?  I guess the last sizable asteroid (or maybe comet) that collided with Earth was the Tunguska blast in 1908.  That was more than a hundred years ago.  And it took forever for anyone to even figure out what the hell happened.  Based on this track record something like this will happen less frequently than once a century.  And no one will be killed but a lot of trees will be flattened.  But something like once in 66 million years an asteroid 8 miles long will hit Earth causing a mass extinction event.  That rock was 200 times bigger than A2024 YR4.  How about if we stop worrying about anything less than 1% of the extinction rock.  So that would be twice as big as the recent rock.  So, if a 400 ft asteroid is crowding Earth, then maybe I’ll start getting nervous.  Or maybe I won’t.  We already have nuclear war, earthquakes, tsunamis, super-volcanoes, “global warming,” plagues (like COVID) and transgender mass murderers to worry about.  I don’t think I have the bandwidth to start worrying about rogue asteroids rolling into Earth or now into the Moon and destroying my wi-fi reception.

You know, maybe I’d be happy if an asteroid hit the Moon and sent a million meteors raining into the various satellites we have clogging up the sky over our heads.  Maybe that’s exactly what we need.  If cell phones stopped working and once we walk away from our desks we couldn’t be reached by every idiot on the planet maybe we’d actually be happier.  It’s just a thought.

Fun on a Friday Night

photog Current Events, Science, Science Fiction / Fantasy , , , , , , , , ,

Make a start.  Make a start.  Well, I’ve caught up with my chores.  All the distractions and alarums and excursions have kept me from writing.  Well, what can you do?  Life is like that.

But what to write about?  I’m looking for something upbeat.  I don’t want to talk about the crime epidemic or the 2024 race or even transgender pushback.  I’ve expended enough venom on those to last me awhile.  I’d rather think about something fun.

So, how about asteroid mining?

Until recently talk of this was restricted to science fiction fans.  Heinlein had asteroid miners in his juvenile novel “The Rolling Stones” and it was a staple of many writers in the last century.  But now it’s going from fiction to fact as NASA is talking about sending a mission to an asteroid that is believed to be composed almost entirely of metal.  There’s a mission to send an unmanned mission to reach Psyche 16 in 2026.

Psyche 16 is a small world with a diameter of 140 miles.  Its mass has been estimated at 2.29 ×1019 kg.  That’s about 0.0004% of the Earth’s mass.  But that’s an enormous mass.

Now visiting Psyche 16 is a far cry from actually mining gold and platinum from this worldlet and getting it to Earth where it has value.  But it’s a start.  The actual mechanism for recovering the metals that make up Psyche 16 is an interesting problem.  Depending on how fast it is going relative to Earth, changing its orbit has the potential to be a human existence-ending event for planet Earth.  Remember, the dinosaurs allegedly bit the dust because a fair-sized asteroid crashed into Earth sixty some odd million years ago.  So, diverting large asteroids should be something done with the utmost of careful planning and the least amount of change to our space environment.

The two choices I come up with are moving it into a stable orbit close to Earth or crashing it into the Moon.  Overall, I favor the Moon idea.  Maybe I’ve been influenced by Heinlein’s story, “The Moon is a Harsh Mistress.”  In that tale the Moon colonists uses a rail gun to boost payloads to escape the Moon’s gravity and splash down in the oceans of Earth.  I’m sure that much more careful thought would need to be done to ensure that this kind of logistical method is possible but I’m guessing from a risk perspective where an extinction event is one of the risks it would probably be preferred to leaving that big rock moving close to Earth.

In the article someone did a back of the envelope calculation and came up with $10,000 quadrillion as the value of the metals in Psyche 16.  Of course, why it would be expressed that way instead of as $10 quintillion is unclear to me.  But they bring up the point that this would wreck the Earth’s economy by destabilizing the value of gold and other metals.  Well, this seems like a silly statement.  Extracting even something as valuable as platinum from the Moon and bringing it back to Earth will not be economical unless the price of that metal increases by orders of magnitude.

Digging gold and platinum out of the Earth is the economical choice and will be for the foreseeable future.  But if someday there is a need for metals that can no longer be found on Earth, then maybe asteroid mining might become a thing,

So, wasn’t that more fun than talking about trannies again?  Feel free to comment on my moon crash option.  I assure you I haven’t thought through this option much at all so we can dissect it as an occasion for fun.  Have at it.