Hillary Clinton thinks the Supreme Court will overturn Obergefell v. Hodges (the decision that discovered the right to gay marriage in the US Constitution) before the 2026 election.
I think she is drawing an analogy from the fact that the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade in June of 2022 in advance of the November 2022 mid-term elections. Of course, there could be blowback from this decision that affects the midterms. It might even cause the loss of the House of Representatives. But you know, I kind of doubt it. I think it’s a mistake to wait to make these decisions. The future is uncertain and the opportunity that exists may be temporary. What’s the expression? “Strike while the iron is hot.”
Throwing abortion and gay marriage back under the jurisdiction of the states sort of takes the monolithic nature of the decisions away. After all, the blue states will continue on without change and the red states will probably put it on the ballot and let their own people decide (well, except for very, very red states where it will be banned by their legislatures and governors). I wonder if there might even be some states that allow gay marriage but forbid the adoption of children by these “families.”
Now I guess it’s possible that the Supreme Court might wait until after the midterms. And it’s even possible that the court might uphold Obergefell v. Hodges. I wouldn’t be surprised to see John Roberts vote to uphold it. But I think the votes are there to overturn it. And this brings up another case; Lawrence v. Texas. This was the decision that made homosexuality a protected constitutional practice. Is it probable that this decision would also be reconsidered? Maybe it’s too much to hope for but since we’re seeing fifty-year precedents overturned why not this relatively recent ruling too?
You know, it’s not every day that I find myself in agreement with something Hillary Clinton says. But in this particular case I think she’s correct. I think the court will rule on Obergefell v. Hodges in 2026 and let the voters sort out how they want their states to stand on gay marriage. And in the long run that is the healthiest way for these things to be handled. We’re supposed to be living under a federal Constitution that allows most of the power to remain with the sovereign states. Thinking that California and Mississippi would have the same opinions on abortion and gay marriage is ludicrous. But in the same way as many ludicrous actions have been taken by the federal government over the last half century and are now being adjusted it only makes sense that the Supreme Court is also going through a reevaluation of unjustified decisions that strayed well beyond the bounds of Constitutional authority and created laws that had no right being written.
My hope is that this trend continues and that President Trump has the chance to appoint several more justices to ensure that the conservative majority is protected and even increased over the next three and a half years. And in fact, I hope he has the opportunity to replace many Democratic federal judges with conservatives, especially in the blue districts like Washington DC, the Northeast and the west coast. But my thanks to Hillary for bringing this opinion to my attention. It brought a smile to my face. Now how often has she done that? As far as I can remember not since 2016.