How Does a Civilization Die? Part II: The Fall

How Does a Civilization Die? Part I: The Decline

So Part I of this essay shows you how a strong free people transitions into an empire. Its successes and growth eventually channel its development into a complex social construct that requires interdependence and eventually destroys freedom and individuality in exchange for collective security and stability. And with the loss of individuality and initiative there comes a certain passivity and fatalism.

By the 120 A.D. the Roman Empire was said to be at its height. Trajan was a warrior emperor. He conquered what is Romania and defeated the Parthians thereby adding Mesopotamia (Iraq) to the empire. He was enlightened in his choice of successor picking a wise ruler instead of just going with familial loyalty. As far as anyone could tell the empire would last forever and eventually encompass the entire world. But within sixty years the roman world would be plunged into internal and external conflict from which it would never wholly recover. Its vitality quickly diminished and its intellectual, cultural and economic levels would all retreat from the high points they had reached during the republican period.

Many historians attribute this ebb to a plague in the second century A.D. Others say that the various barbarian incursions were responsible. I think they are mistaking effects for the cause. The Germanic tribes and Huns were no more powerful or numerous than the Carthaginians or the Gauls of previous times. In fact under the circumstances of the republican times these same peoples would have been eventually absorbed along the frontier of roman territory and converted into subjects and eventually citizens.

And under normal circumstances, the roman army was still an effective fighting force (although much diminished from its earlier might). So how was it dismantled by illiterate barbarians and who didn’t have the where with all to coin their own money or make their own arms?

The short answer was that the roman people didn’t know what to do. Whether they were the slaves of roman land owners or germanic overlords they were still slaves. And slaves don’t drop their ploughshares and grab swords to fight off invaders. They keep ploughing and hand over the fruits of their labor to the landlord regardless of whether he’s named Romulus Augustus or Odoacer. And long before the end, the lack of martial spirit had become so typical that the roman army took to outsourcing their work to the very barbarian tribes that they were supposed to be defending against.

Now let’s look at the United States.

I can remember hearing that during World War I young American men were hoping that the U.S. would get involved so that they would have the chance to fight. My own grandfather who was under-aged enlisted under the pseudonym of Charlie Young in order not to miss out on the adventure. What about today. Now granted, after the 9-11 attacks thousands of patriotic young men enlisted and did their part proudly. But look at the Millennials. They’ve been brought up to equate assault with saying “mean things.” How does someone who thinks in terms of “micro-aggressions” handle the Hun at the door? He doesn’t.

Economically, the globalist corporations and the last few administrations have dismantled almost all the industries that formerly employed millions of middle class Americans and shipped them to China and Mexico. With the help of Obamacare and the tax code they are now finishing off the small and medium sized companies that are left. Pretty soon the only ones not on welfare will be government emploees.
Socially, the first and second amendments are under attack and eventually we won’t be allowed to say or think anything the government doesn’t like. And without guns we’ll never get to change that situation.

So yeah, that’s sort of where the Romans started on the downward road to medieval serfdom. I think realistically we still have a few more years to change course. But I think it’s hard to be optimistic.

As a sort of exhibit of what the situation looked like in the final days of the Roman Empire I think the following example is instructive.

About 450 A.D. Atilla the Hun, the Scourge of God was sacking and despoiling the cities of both the Eastern and Western Roman Empires. This almost exactly coincides with when historians mark the end of the Western Empire and the beginning of the Germanic kingdom of Italy.

Anyway, the Eastern Roman Emperor sent a delegation to Atilla’s camp to negotiate tribute to limit the Hunnish incursion. One of the delegates was a Greek named Priscus who wrote a history of his times that has survived. His description of this delegation includes his meeting with a renegade. This was an eastern roman citizen of greek descent who had been captured when the Huns sacked Viminacium (a city on the Danube). He adopted the Hun lifestyle. He was now a full member of Atilla’s court.

Priscus questions the renegade about his life. The renegade defends the Hunnish lifestyle and attacks the Roman institutions. He defends the life of a marauder describing how after battle the warriors can enjoy their spoils in leisure. Even balancing in the hardships and dangers of war the life was good. He compares this to how the Romans in time of war suffer from the poor quality of the army and generals and if their army is defeated the civilians have no arms of their own to defend themselves. In peace time they are burdened with crippling taxation and the laws and the courts are hopelessly rigged against the common man. It was not the life you would choose.

Priscus answers these charges by defending the fairness and well-meaning nature of the roman law and claims that the divisions of society are necessary for the efficient and proper function of life.

The renegade grants that in theory the roman world should be a good place but he concludes by saying that the rulers were corrupt and had ruined the roman world.

Looking at this window into the past it’s hard not to draw parallels to our own time. In theory all the things we do increase fairness and safety but in reality they damage the health of the nation. The government restricts freedom and amasses power into its own hands. The people become less able to improve their own lot and control their own destiny. They become more dependent on an all powerful state and less capable of acting independently in an emergency. Sound familiar?

So this is how a civilization dies. It regiments the populace into castes like insects in a hive and when a catastrophe disrupts the pattern of normal life the whole structure collapses like a deck of cards. The inhabitants lack the flexibility or will to adapt and save themselves and their world by changing.

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How Does a Civilization Die? Part I: The Decline

Lately there has been a lot of talk about civilization and civilizations. You hear people talk about the “clash of civilizations” by which they are describing the tension between “The West” and Islam. And there’s a lot of talk. These are old concepts and they’ve been revived after the failure of “The End of History” which is to say after the 9-11 attacks.

And then there’s talk about the failure of western culture and the Fall of the West. Here the factors are the loss of cultural vitality and native population decrease and the dilution of identity through massive immigration. This is countered by the contention that the global culture is just replacing the outdated local identities. We’re all becoming citizens of the world. After all, we all (or most of us) have an I-phone and a gmail account. We can’t be that different.

So any way there’s a lot of talk.

I’ve been thinking lately about how a civilization dies. So when you do that you have to go back to the great-grand-daddy of all civilizational collapses. That’s right you guessed it.

“THE DECLINE & FALL OF THE ROMAN EMPIRE!!!!!”

At the outset let me paraphrase Denzel Washington’s character in Training Day and say, “Edward Gibbon ain’t got nothing on me.”

That’s the textbook case for all theories and phenomena. And in the example of Rome there are a number of analogies to the United States. And this is not surprising because the Founding Fathers used Rome as one of the sources for their state building project.

In Part I of this post I’ll describe the reason for the decline. In Part II I’ll discuss the results.

Both states depended on the citizen soldier to defend her in her earlier days from more powerful enemies. Both were recognized as exceptional nations that combined practical innovation and great energy. Both states began as highly religious people who honored the family as the basis of its legitimate power and where the pater familias ensured that traditions were maintained and discipline was real. Both states started as a nation of small farmers. Both states began with a conscious intent to eliminate hereditary monarchs.

This similarity extended beyond the conditions at their founding. The other striking similarity was their success at expanding and consolidating their states and incorporating new ideas and things into their lives. Also it would not be an exaggeration to say that they had an almost unshakable belief in their greater destiny.

So what brought down the Roman Republic? It appears that the very success they had in war and their emulation of their more cultured neighbors was the eventual cause of the destruction of the republic. The contact with the greek and near eastern communities led to the adoption of more luxurious standards of living and the breakdown of family authority. The copying of fashionable greek homosexual behavior threatened the continuity of family life and traditions. The changed role of women in society also helped to degrade traditional home life.

The continuous state of war in the later republic and the scope and distance of the wars fought eventually made it impossible for the citizen soldier to exist. A man couldn’t drop his plow, fight a battle and then go back to his fields. He had to be gone for at least several years at a time. This required the need for conscription for very long periods of service. Eventually this produced the professional army that owed its loyalty to the ones paying its salary. Eventually they became very like mercenaries who could deliver the empire to the highest bidder.

Also the wealth amassed by the conquest of the older eastern states made some of the generals wildly wealthy and they used this wealth to build enormous farming estates in Italy to the virtual exclusion of the former small farm owners. As an added problem the wholesale importation of conquered peoples as agricultural slaves further devalued the worth of the small farmer. As the power of the state and the bureaucracy grew the majority of the citizens resembled more and more the medieval serfs, attached to a landed aristocracy and dependent on agricultural labor to remain alive. So by the height of the Imperial Age you had the paradox of a Roman State that had used its highly professional army to conquer all the neighboring states and basically eliminate external threats. But by the same token the majority of the citizens were essentially slaves to a highly oppressive aristocracy. And because of the strength of the army there was no reasonable hope for a revolt.

Now let’s compare the United States.

The traditional lifestyle and roles of Americans have been in flux since around the turn of the Twentieth Century and these changes have been accelerating ever since.
Female Suffrage, sexual freedom and the independence of children from parental authority has reached the point where even traditional family groups live a confused and unsatisfactory existence. With the advent of the homosexual rights movement and its subsequent mainstreaming by the Supreme Court it is fair to say that traditional family life is now viewed as aberrant by the trendsetters of society. The ability of society to protect children is now to be questioned.

Since the end of the Vietnam War the army has become virtually a professional volunteer enterprise. Nothing short of a direct attack on the US homeland (the 9-11 attacks) has been able to galvanize anything like a desire for general mobilization. Moreover, a concerted effort is being made by large segments of the government to discourage the belief in the need for the Second Amendment.

The era of the family farm started to disappear with the increase in manufacturing jobs in the mid-1800s. But these factory jobs were able to sustain a high average income and spawned the middle class. However, since the end of the 1980s automation and globalization have lead to great dislocation of workers and disruption of almost every facet of American life. Family life especially has been negatively impacted. With the advent of wholesale immigration of skilled third world labor by globalist “American” corporations the problem has reached a critical stage. It is easy to see how eventually this will lead to the majority of Americans being reduced to poverty and virtual serfdom. And with the advent of advanced artificial intelligence it begins to look like a very powerful government could use a professional armed forces to suppress any revolt (especially if that population has already been disarmed).

In Part II we’ll discuss how the changes in the Roman state (and modern analogs) made it inevitable that eventually it would collapse.

How Does a Civilization Die? Part-II: The Fall

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The Trump Test

Recently many of my conservative friends have expressed a feeling of extreme dread. Their fear is that Hillary’s victory is inevitable.

I tell them there is nothing to worry about. Just go about your business and be as happy as you can. Here’s why.

Some of these friends of mine are strongly anti-Trump and each one loudly proclaims that his conscience will not allow him to vote for “The Donald.” Either he’ll vote for Hillary or Johnson or not vote at all. So for this faction of fretters I can honestly feel nothing but scorn. After all, they will be getting what they are abetting.

Then there are the others. They support Trump either enthusiastically or reluctantly but fear that he is doomed to lose. Well these folks I do sympathize with. They recognize Clinton as an evil and will do what must be done to avoid it. And the media is working in overdrive to both convince everyone that Hillary has already won and also that Trump is the epitome of evil incompetence. These poor conservatives fret, “If only we had a better candidate than Trump. We’d be sure to win. This election year the demographics demand a moderate. If we had a Romney or a McCain we’d be able to capture that swing vote. Then we can build a coalition of young voters who understand the advantages of the conservative approach.”

Sounds reasonable doesn’t it. But doesn’t it also sound familiar? Since 1992 every election has been described as hanging by a thread. Every one of them has required that conservatives compromise their principles and embrace a squishy moderate who manages to drive away more people on the right than he attracts from the supposed middle. Bush Senior, Dole, Bush Junior, McCain and Romney. We haven’t united people under a conservative banner. We’ve alienated the middle class by pushing globalism and elitist priorities. We’ve lost the Reagan Democrats. They either vote democrat or don’t vote at all. Now we’ll lose the social conservatives as we compromise on the first and second amendments. So Trump may be deeply flawed as a candidate but at least he’s not squishy. Flaky? Yes. Philosophically unsophisticated? Sure. Elitist? Actually, not. Authentic? Very possibly!

I feel that Trump is a self-absorbed ego-maniac. But he’s not anti-American at all. That may be his greatest virtue. Put these things together and it hardly seems like a ringing endorsement. But actually it is. What he does have is an understanding of the underlying policies that are destroying the United States. That alone supremely qualifies him to be elected this year. This outweighs all his negatives. Because all his opponents on the left and the right failed to tell the simple truth about what needs to be done.

My short hand for this is, “He may be a crazy son of a bitch but he’s our crazy son of a bitch.”

So that’s my answer to why they should vote for Trump. But that doesn’t answer their fears that he will lose. For this the answers are even less comforting.

You’ve heard some people saying that voting for Trump is people “burning the system down.” This seems to mean that they are voting for Trump to spite the republican establishment. People may actually think this is the only significance. I think there’s much more going on there. I think what is happening is we are reaching a tipping point. When people no longer believe that the establishment (including both the democrats and the republicans) will help the common people (either because they don’t know how or don’t want to) they will change the system. Pat Buchanan ran on a populist stance back in 1992 and only got 3 million votes in the primaries and didn’t come close to winning. This year Trump garnered the most primary votes ever in a republican primary season (14 million) and beat a field of 16 rivals that outspent him by hundreds of millions of dollars. Bernie Sanders ran a populist ticket and gave the “Anointed One” a run for her money. I think we are near the end of business as usual. Pretty soon people are going to stop waiting for the parties to pick a leader. They’ll be listening for the angriest voice. And that’s a pretty dangerous time. The moment will belong to whomever can grasp it. In the past that hasn’t always been the best or the wisest. Sometimes it’s the strongest.

I think we’re almost there. I think Trump is a tv cartoon version of the strongman. He blusters and struts. But I don’t think he’s Caesar. And for that maybe we should be grateful. Under a Trump administration possibly business leaders might be willing to put the national interest ahead of their global destiny. Maybe they won’t. If Trump fails and Americans continue to see their lives and the their future (their children’s future) diminished they will turn to a strongman. And then things will change.

But either way I don’t think we need to worry about Hillary. If she gets in it will just accelerate the process. Once she and Bill have looted the Treasury and fled to New Zealand we’ll end up with a man who makes Trump seem like Mr. Rogers. So that’s the Trump challenge. Either way we’re not far away from some fairly radical change. So don’t bother worrying about the election. Our brethren will either embrace a moderate populist or wait till later to bring on a much stronger dose of medicine. Much bigger things are on the horizon. Keep your eyes open and your mind alert. We live in interesting times.

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