What Effect Is the US Mid-Term Elections Having on the Ukraine War?

I have a feeling that the upcoming US elections are having an effect on both sides of the Ukraine war.  It seems that the Americans are trying to provoke the Russians into a very violent reaction before the Mid-Terms in order to change the focus of the American electorate away from the economy and other domestic problems and onto the Russians.  And unless I’m mistaken, I think the Russians are doing everything they can to resist this provocation for the same reason.

I think the Russians are savvy enough about previous “wag the dog” incidents to recognize what’s going on.  And whereas they cannot completely ignore things like the Nord Stream sabotage or the attack on the Crimean bridge it strikes me that they are being surprisingly subdued in their responses to these provocations.  And I think that’s smart.  Once the election is over Biden is stuck with the result and I don’t think he’ll be as sanguine about the Ukraine war.  A month from now it’s going to start getting much colder in Europe and the lack of affordable fuel is going to become a big deal.

If my theory is correct as soon as the elections are over the Russians are going to take the gloves off and pummel the Ukrainian infrastructure and cause havoc.  Attacks on electrical generation and transmission equipment and other utilities will begin showing the Ukrainians that war against a powerful neighbor is an unpleasant reality.  Spending a winter without heat, lights and running water is a pretty miserable existence.  In addition, the Russians have not staged a major artillery strike on Kiev since June.  If the capitol city becomes a major target for attacks, it will have a major impact on Ukrainian public opinion about continuing the war.  It might even turn the people against Zelensky.

And then there is the United States.  With OPEC decreasing output by two million barrels a day of oil the cost of fuel will be more than just an annoyance.  It will be a drain on household budgets that will leave families struggling to get by.  This will worsen the economy that is already in terrible shape.  And when the recession starts adding millions of Americans to the unemployment lines, they’re not going to care about helping the Ukraine war.  They’re going to be angry and scared.  And that should be about the time that Washington will tell Zelensky to start talking to the Russians about peace.

I could be all wrong about the Russian restraint being about our Mid-Terms but I seriously doubt it.  I think this whole war is a manufactured product of the CIA and the State Department.  And there is an atmosphere that pervades the whole operation that smells like a catastrophe about to blow up in their faces.  They’ve upped the ante every time things have gone wrong and it seems like we’re nearing a breaking point.  Assuming they don’t intend to lob a nuke on their own I think they may have overestimated their ability to stampede the Russians into some horrendous over reaction.  The pipeline and bridge sabotage are the latest provocations but the Russians seem to be maintaining a proportional response to each of these attacks.

There’s only a month to go but that’s plenty of time for me to be shown I’m wrong or for the Biden team to go over the top on their activities.  For everyone’s sake I hope they don’t get the reaction they’re looking for.