For decades I’ve noticed that political polls in the United States had a very noticeable bias. Depending on whether they were ridiculously partisan polls or just slightly biased they would skew more or less to the Left. They were able to produce this bias by overestimating the percentage of the population that is Democrat and underestimating the Republican share. And it was just assumed by me that we had to throw our own fudge factor in when trying to make sense of the actual political situation from these flawed measures.
But look at Joe Biden’s approval ratings on RCP now.
|RCP Average||1/10 – 2/13||—||40.6||53.8||-13.2|
|Rasmussen||2/9 – 2/13||1500 LV||42||57||-15|
|Reuters||2/7 – 2/8||1005 A||43||51||-8|
|YouGov||2/5 – 2/8||1255 RV||41||51||-10|
|Susquehanna||2/3 – 2/9||800 LV||42||52||-10|
|Politico||2/5 – 2/6||2005 RV||41||55||-14|
|IBD/TIPP||2/2 – 2/4||1355 A||38||48||-10|
|CNN||1/10 – 2/6||1257 RV||42||57||-15|
|Monmouth||1/20 – 1/24||735 RV||38||55||-17|
|Insider Advantage||1/21 – 1/23||850 LV||40||59||-19|
|Harris||1/19 – 1/20||1815 RV||39||53||-14|
These are horrible numbers. And they’re close to accurate. Rasmussen is one of the few pollsters that doesn’t favor Democrats. He’s got Dementia Joe at 42 – 57. CNN which is perpetually in the tank for the Dems has 42 – 57. That’s not an accident. Those are real numbers. And why are they doing this? Because Biden’s numbers with Democrats are terrible too. Or in another way to look at it, a lot of the people who voted for Biden have switched parties. The proportion of voters who claim to be Democrats has shrunk. They’ve shifted to the Republicans or at least to Independents. And they mean that they’ll be voting for Republicans even though they don’t want to be called Republicans because they’re women and they don’t want their friends to judge them harshly.
All this tells me that the midterms are going to be very bad for the Dems. They will lose the House and the Senate. I think that’s a given. Does it mean anything more? Only maybe. It’s completely within the control of the Republicans to do what they typically do and blow this golden opportunity. They can use their control of the Congress to collect fees from the donors and lobbyists, as usual. They can ignore their duty and not thoroughly investigate and document for the American people the blatant and systematic voter fraud that happened in 2020. Or they can for once act like the leaders of a free people.
Normally I’d say the chance of them doing the right thing was zero. But things are significantly different this time. Donald Trump refuses to let sleeping dogs lie. He continues to rally the people to support efforts to investigate the 2020 election. He continues to call out the RINO’s like Liz Cheney who support Democrat lies like the “Insurrection.” And some of the state leaders are making the right noises too. They are attempting to safeguard their election processes.
Putting all this together I’d say we’re at about a fifty percent chance of something good coming out of the present situation. Admittedly that’s not a glowing prospect but compared to how things have gone for most of my life, it’s a reason to hope.
The polls actually give us good information for the first time in decades. The people are pissed off. Now it will take the politicians to get their act together. Let’s pray that some actual leaders will emerge and use the opportunity.