That Crazy Trump

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I was trying to imagine what will be the result if China is hit with a 50% tariff.  Now China is not Vietnam.  China’s labor is no longer strictly speaking third world.  It’s probably “second world.”  Will a two dollar “hammer” still sell if it costs three dollars?  It’s a fair question.  How about a fifty-dollar tool that now costs seventy-five dollars.  Well, maybe you say, “Sure because the American tool costs one hundred dollars.”  But what if I remind you that it’s a really awful tool that doesn’t work very well and only lasts a third of the life; like those things you buy at Harbor Freight.  Well, now you have something to think about.

Maybe that’s what Trump is doing.  The only thing I can’t figure out is if the correct number is 50% or 100% or 300%.  I really don’t have a good feel for what the equivalence point is.  And it can’t be the same for every different item out there.  How exactly does he make this work.

The funny thing is I’m excited about the prospect of closing the “China valve.”  I’d love to see nothing exported from China to America.  I witnessed first-hand American companies building the industrial capacity in China needed to replace American jobs by the million.  They gladly partnered with the Chinese government and they got their thirty pieces of silver in the process only it was probably ten pieces of silver.  The Chinese were always cheap.

I listened to Pete Navarro talk about how tariffs are just a small part of the trade picture.  Europe and other places have a value added tax (VAT) that they use to keep out imports.  And places like Vietnam (and China) infamously steal intellectual property without any concern for consequences.  They bootleg everything from clothing to toys to handbags to you name it.  And nothing is done.  From what I can tell we’re not trying to fix these things.  We’re trying to quarantine the merchandise coming from this whole side of the world.  Wow.

So, I’m all for this.

But can it be done?

I’m assuming there will be an enormous disruption to commerce.  After all, these products are shipped across the Pacific on boats that take weeks to reach here.  Now all of this product costs a lot more.  What if the people who bought it to sell it to Americans can’t get people to buy it at the higher prices?  What happens at Christmas when I can’t buy all that crappy branded merchandise associated with the latest crappy Hollywood kid movie?  Mass hysteria!

And what about all those American companies that buy parts for their products from China and the rest of Asia?  Will this change their pricing?  Yes.  But now they’ll also be competing against foreign manufacturers whose products will really get expensive.  German and Japanese cars are excellent.  But will they be worth a significantly higher price tag?  That will have to be decided on the merits.  And will that mean that Toyota and Mercedes will start making more of their cars here?  I hope so.  That is where we get a win/win.

Well, the stock market seemed to steady today.  I’m following all of this and it’s wild stuff.  That crazy Trump.  He’s the greatest show on Earth.

Bot-Farms and Boris and Natasha

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Grandson “quartus” was over today for his visit.  Now his specialty in the movie category is Godzilla movies.  We saw two and half cinematic jewels because we switched out “Godzilla vs. Kong” halfway through and substituted the more recent “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire.”  And am I glad we did.  It was an obvious upgrade.  Otherwise, I would have missed out on the additional monsters.  There was Skar King (another giant gorilla), Shimo and of course Mothra.  And because kids can’t adjourn for dinner, we ate the obligatory spaghetti and meatballs dinner while watching the movies.  This was followed up with sherbert of his choice.  Luckily, we eventually ran out of monster movies and moved onto games.  Camera Girl always brings out her Yahtzee game and we played several spirited rounds and then we adjourned downstairs to the pool table and that was much more to my liking.  He’s actually pretty good.  So, we talked about what was going on at school and which video games were the best right now and what sports were being played at school.  And the time flew by.  Before I knew it, it was 5:30 pm and I returned him to his parents along with a chocolate cake that Camera Girl whipped up for the occasion.  So maybe kids aren’t all that different today than they used to be.  Possibly the dissolution of the nuclear family isn’t absolutely preordained.

So, I was too busy today to go over to X.  But strangely I got about ten times more clicks on my post from this morning than I usually get.  Now I must confess I have almost no idea how these algorithms work.  I know that all kinds of things (various words, ideas and images) can trigger the algorithm to suppress a post or even an account from getting any visibility.  But for the life of me I don’t know why I would get more visibility than usual.  As you know I wrote about Trump’s tariffs.  And that’s neither a taboo subject or anything that would draw all kinds of viewers.  Now maybe this has to do with my little dustup with the denizens of Elon’s kingdom the other day.  But there were no likes or angry comments or anything to indicate why people stopped by.

The truth is I didn’t even get into a shouting match over the altercation.  Honestly it would seem absurd to hurl insults at people I don’t know over a comment that was quite innocuous.  My opinion was simply that seventy years ago the United States had an economy, culture and morale that were in almost every way superior to what currently exists in this country.  And I would say that this statement would neatly divide this country into two separate camps of people based on whether they thought this statement was obviously true or false.  And that trying to convince one side or the other to change their minds would be pretty much a complete waste of time.  Me trying to convince someone that the actuarial table differences didn’t equate to a better life in 2025 that 1955 would be as I found pure folly.

But what was heartening was the number of people who “liked” my statement.  It resonated with lots of folks.  So surprisingly social media actually has some reach.  I even had some of my first traffic to my site from X.  So, I guess it’s not all bot-farms and Boris and Natasha.  Who knew?!!!

Guest Contributor – Milo Mindbender – 06APR2025 – Trade, Tariffs and Time

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Whatever the agenda is it must be cast before January 27. If it delays, it dies. After the next swearing in of Congress any progress not completed will probably be smothered in it’s afterbirth.
The usual suspects are screaming for blood, and don’t understand the way tariffs should work.
If you penalize products coming from my country to yours, I should do the same to your goods in order to keep a balance of trade. We are bit by tariffs, excise taxes, and down right bans on our exports, but are expected to forget that on their exports. Some actually make sense, like the ban on beef since we turn cattle into unwilling cannibals by reprocessing animal offal into cattle feed, some are just a protectionism by the other countries.
We need to either play reciprocally or refuse to play at all. Rumour has it mothballed cardboard plants in Maine are being looked into as a consequence of the tariffs with Canada.
European social practices have been indirectly supported by our bearing their defense burdens freeing up their Treasury for bribing the masses with healthcare, work breaks, and other bennies. Let them sort their own issues in their home since we are only uncultured upstarts according to them.
Asian economies get the same bribery, Japan was able to direct the monies that would have been used for defense into industries post WWII, and allowed them to specialize in electronics, Korea directly benefits by having our tripwire troops in place permitting them to focus on commerce instead of having to secure their borders. Post Kim rule in NK might collapse and actually allow for reunification of the two societies, but not under the one family rule it has had for 75 years.
If we did what the world is asking and tended to our own interest and business, because power hates a vacuum some entity would club to the top of the dung heap and declare themselves king of the pile.
It would be interesting to see as a thought experiment whether it would be an eastern invasion into the power vacuum, or another global jihad. Time may tell.

Donald Trump’s Tariff Typhoon Hits Wall Street.  Mayhem Ensues

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That Donald Trump, he’s got folks more stirred up than a hornet’s nest.  I read that the Dow was off by 8% on the week.  Now that’s a lot.  I think back on Black Monday in the ‘80s it ended down about that amount.  And that riled up folks too.  Of course, I’m guessing most of these angry investors aren’t going to sell off their holdings.  For them equity is the only game in town.  Shorting the market could get some of them hurt.

I’ve got to say, Trump isn’t doing things by halves.  And I think he’s going in the right direction.  Things won’t change until all of the globalist policies are upended.  And upending those policies will produce havoc in the short term.  And that’s what we’re seeing.  One thing’s for sure I wouldn’t be thinking about buying any high end imported cars or other luxury items.  They’re gonna get expensive.  And there’s gonna be a lot of angry folks who sell those things who will be making a lot less money until things re-sort themselves around changes in the tariff situation.

Well, it should be interesting to see if Trump can get this done.  There’s nothing certain about his hold on power.  The Republicans in Congress are as disloyal a bunch as any imaginable and if they think Trump is in trouble they’ll turn on him in a heartbeat.  And I’m sure he knows that.  For myself personally, I’m enjoying all the drama unfolding on the social platforms.  The folks on X have been spinning around like lunatics declaring the end of the world.  And that can be very entertaining.  I got into a number of spirited discussions with folks who told me we’re living in the best of all possible worlds and wanting Americans to have manufacturing jobs was stupid, nostalgic, racist (of course) and just plain evil.  And that really was fun.  One guy told me that the present world is so much better than the old bad world of the 1950s because now people live twelve years longer.  I was trying to understand how putting tariffs on foreign goods would reduce my life expectancy by twelve years.  When I questioned whether quality of life was as important as quantity he said, “You answer my question first and then we will deal with your non sequitur.”  Well, I noted his use of the royal plural and he stomped off.  So, there is definitely an entertainment component to Donald Trump’s trade policy.

I’ve read that a number of countries are now negotiating for a deal and I assume that’s what Trump intends.  He wants these advanced countries to reduce their tariffs against American products.  But countries with very low labor costs like China and Vietnam I suspect they’ll get stuck with tariffs levied against their goods.  And what that will do is force American manufacturers to on-shore some of their operations to prevent the loss of American business.  That’s what supposedly Apple intends to do.  What I don’t know is how quickly something like that can be done.  Factories don’t spring up like vegetables.  It takes years to build infrastructure so I don’t know how much on-shoring can be done in 2025.

We will see how it plays out.  Anyway, I’m rooting for him.