What we have is a miracle. To be honest after 2020’s lopsided “defeat” I figured the Democrats had a lock on things at least through 2028. The reality was that Biden was a REAL mess and the infighting within the White House made it look like there were three or four different factions fighting for control of the Presidential puppet. That and the choice of the clearly DEI VP candidate (Biden SAID he was going to choose a black female outright) who was not even competent in her previous tasks lead to a result that baffled the Democrat pundits come November 2024.
Trump and his team have been going gangbusters. Not that there haven’t been issues. Someone that understands engineer types needed to soothe Mr. Musk’s feathers in particular praising his team for what they did get done against incredible odds. Getting USAID under control has done much to starve the Democrat punditry and nomenaclatura. The Trump people also had less control of the Senate, the President Pro-tem is slow walking things. In addition, there seem to be lots of district and appellate court nominations going wanting and many deputy positions also unfilled. This is where the current troubles are. That said for 7-8 months into a 4 year term they’re not doing too badly given the headwinds they’re sailing against.
2026 is going to be a battle Royal. This is do or die for the Dems. If they can’t take back either the House or the Senate this just keeps rolling on for 2 more years and likely there would be strong restrictions on the remote voting the Democrats are so fond of. If the Democrats can get one arm they can tie things up and maybe even negotiate some minor wins as many Republicans try to play nice. This is like playing nice with a nest of Black Widow spiders but somehow some Republicans fail to perceive this.
Honestly, where the heck the Democrats go in 2028 baffles me. in the last decade or so there have been 3 wings to the Democrats, The Clinton wing, The Obama Wing, and the AOC/Bernie/Squad wing. The Clinton “middle of the road” (it ain’t middle by at least three rows of tall trees) wing seems to be heading to dormancy/decline. Newsome is sort of their kind of candidate charismatic, and he’s positioning towards the “middle” although like the Clintons before him his real positions are far to the left of what he’s staking out. The Obama wing really has no one. Mrs. Obama may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer but she is smart enough to know she doesn’t want the job. Most of the Biden appointees are absolute messes (e.g. Pete Buttigieg, who couldn’t even manage to not run DOT into the ground). The Squad has some known names like Ocasio-Cortez, but none play well outside deep blue enclaves. I suspect if Mamdani wins the NYC Mayoral post, he’ll be so awful he’ll make Mayor Dinkins look like Mayors Koch or Giuliani. That will sour red and purple US districts to ANY of the Squad/Bernie type candidates. So I think we get at least 1 term of Vance. This crosses the 2030 barrier and may mean a more precise census.
No it’s not a golden era. To fix things we REALLY need huge advantages, 2/3 in both houses and 3/4 (38) of the state legislatures, so amendments could be moved through to pin down some things (e.g. Citizenship, Census taking, Supreme court judge numbers, etc.). But it is surely that worldline is far superior to what would have happened if Dems had remained in control. Down that path lay some variant of Mr. Schlicter’s Peoples Republic at best.